2016 Cubs Payroll

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by dmick8971 Comments

In 2015 the Cubs payroll was a little over $133 million. We're not entirely sure what the 2016 payroll will be, but Theo did say we should expect it to increase some. That could mean anything, but we'll have plenty of time to break that down. I figured since I wasn't entirely sure where the Cubs were in terms of resources that I'd get a clue so I knew what I was talking about moving forward. I also figured it's something I've tracked nearly every year since 2005 so I'd publish it here. Maybe I'm the only one who finds it useful, but I can more quickly find things here on OV than I can elsewhere. Hopefully some of you will find it useful too.

Myles has already put together some potential offseason plans.


Player 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jon Lester 20.000 25.000 25.000 25.000 25.000
Miguel Montero 14.000 14.000      
Edwin Jackson 13.000        
Jason Hammel 9.000 *2.0      
Starlin Castro 7.857 9.857 10.857 11.857 **1.0
Anthony Rizzo 5.286 7.286 7.286 11.286 ***2.0
Jorge Soler 3.667 3.667 4.667 4.667 4.667
David Ross 2.500        
Gerardo Concepcion 1.200        
Ryan Sweeney 0.500        
Trevor Cahill 0.300        
Clayton Richard # 1.100 Free Agent (FA)      
Chris Coghlan # 3.900 FA      
Jonathan Herrera # 1.100 FA      
Travis Wood # 6.400 FA      
Pedro Strop # 4.700 Arb4 FA    
Jake Arrieta # 10.600 Arb3 FA    
Jacob Turner # 1.000 Arb2 Arb3 FA  
Hector Rondon # 3.600 Arb2 Arb3 FA  
Justin Grimm # 1.000 Arb2 Arb3 FA  

 

Notes

  • The Cubs hold a $12 million club option on Jason Hammel for 2017 or a $2 million buyout.
  • The Cubs hold a $16 million club option on Starlin Castro in 2020 or a $1 million buyout.
  • The Cubs hold a $14.5 million clut option on Anthony Rizzo in 2020 and 2021 with a $2 million buyout.
  • Trevor Cahill has a $0.3 million buyout (or an absurd $13 million club option, which isn't happening).
  • # arbitration eligible players with projected salaries by Matt Swartz.
  • Jon Lester is paid $22.5 million in each of 2018 and 2019, but also gets $2.5 million each year as part of his signing bonus. 2021 he's paid $15 million, but he also gets $10 million in signing bonus.

The total of those players is $110.71 million. Add in the auto-renewal players making roughly league minimum, as well as the 40-man roster guys not on the active roster (probably $7-12 million total) and you're already at $120 million.

Re-signing Dexter Fowler definitely becomes more difficult if the Cubs are looking to add a top-tier talent (pitcher or position player) through free agency. That is, unless the payroll is significantly higher than it was in 2015.

So let's say the Cubs increase the payroll to $140 million, which would only be a small increase considering they went to the playoffs. They'd have roughly $15 million to spend. A trade or two could clear up some more space. A $150 million payroll would give the Cubs a lot more flexibility and the option to add both an elite starting pitcher and Dexter Fowler if they wanted.

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Comments

  1. JonKneeV

    How soon do you think Theo will try to buy out Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, etc. pre-arb, arb, and early FA years?

    Bryant is a special case, because I could see him waiting it out and becoming a FA when he’s 29. I could see Schwarber signing an 8 year $40m deal.

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  2. Sam

    JonKneeV,

    I think Soler can opt into Arbitration when he’s eligible (2018 I believe is his first opportunity), otherwise he’s locked into the contract he signed as Int’l FA until 2021.

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  3. myles

    JonKneeV:
    How soon do you think Theo will try to buy out Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, etc. pre-arb, arb, and early FA years?

    Bryant is a special case, because I could see him waiting it out and becoming a FA when he’s 29. I could see Schwarber signing an 8 year $40m deal.

    Immediately. I’d bet you a million dollars that Jed has at least communicated with all of Schwarber/Russell/Bryant’s agents already, though whether they want to sign one or not remains to be seen.

    Bryant probably will go to FA unless he gets a big overpay. I literally cannot find who Kyle Schwarber’s agent is, but he signed an under-slot deal so it probably isn’t Boras (dying laughing). The problem is that you usually sign these types of deals with players who didn’t get 1st round money. Schwarber received $3.125 million and Russell received $2.625 million. Soler isn’t signing a deal because he already has a similar one.

    In the end, I think the Cubs will eventually get one done for Schwarber and Russell that extend team control for one more year, but it won’t be all that team-friendly. It will just provide cost certainty for both sides.

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  4. Smokestack Lightning

    Looking at next year’s FA crop, which is almost entirely composed of actual shit, seems this should be the year to stretch payroll a bit further than usual.

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  5. Mucker

    I would have to imagine Theo can expand the payroll if he feels he can get both a quality SP and either Fowler or Fowler’s replacement. If he’s got some deals working, I can’t see the Ricketts telling him no, it’s either one or the other. Heyward will most likely get a huge deal so I don’t see the Cubs signing him but what impact will that have on Fowler’s price?

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  6. Author
    dmick89

    Sam:
    JonKneeV,

    I think Soler can opt into Arbitration when he’s eligible (2018 I believe is his first opportunity), otherwise he’s locked into the contract he signed asInt’l FA until 2021.

    Yeah, Soler makes $3 million in each of 2016 and 2017 and has an outside shot of being a super 2 (most likely not). Then he earns $4 million in each of 2018 and 2019, but will probably opt out after 2018 and become arbitration eligible if he’s not a super 2.

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  7. Author
    dmick89

    Edit: he’ll be arbitration eligible after 2017 and will opt out of his contract at that point (he’ll still be under Cubs control). So $3 million in 2016 and 2017 then arbitration.

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  8. Author
    dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    And they should be able to get away with it because Hammel and Jackson come off the books after 2016. I’d think stretching it in 2016 would be OK all things considered (Cubs went to the NLCS, they should be a contender in 2017 and money coming off the books after 2016).

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  9. Author
    dmick89

    Sam:
    Don’t post for years, come back to say hi, and kill the comments section. Good work, Sam.

    Good to see you back, too. Been a long time. Nice to see all you guys who used to post around since we moved away from Bloguin. Thanks.

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  10. Smokestack Lightning

    JonKneeV:
    Mucker,

    I don’t think it will have all that much impact. Hell, he might even sign before Heyward does.

    I really hope Theo can convince Ricketts to let him make a legit run at Heyward. More and more I think this is the way to go. Price would be pretty good to great for 2-3 years, but then you’re paying for significantly diminishing returns the rest of the way, same with Lester. With Heyward, yeah, you have to pay him a shit-ton, but it’s likely for the best years of his career and even at a sky-high price there’s a decent chance he outperforms it (he was worth almost 50MM this year). There’s even still some hope that his bat reaches another level and depending on the length of the deal, the defense wouldn’t start to regress until the latter stages. Something like that doesn’t come around in FA every day.

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  11. Author
    dmick89

    I’d love to have Heyward, but I think you’ve got to trade Soler and sign someone like Austin Jackson for CF. I’m fine with that. I’m just not sure you want Heyward in CF.

    I agree. A player like Heyward doesn’t come around in free agency very often. He ought to be the primary target. If they could get him and then Ross for the rotation, I’d be happy.

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  12. myles

    Yeah, if Heyward signs an 8-year deal, he’d still be 34 on the last year of that deal. That’s pretty remarkable. I just think he’s getting close to $200 million from someone. That’s a lot of money.

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  13. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    I’d love to have Heyward, but I think you’ve got to trade Soler and sign someone like Austin Jackson for CF. I’m fine with that. I’m just not sure you want Heyward in CF.

    I agree. A player like Heyward doesn’t come around in free agency very often. He ought to be the primary target. If they could get him and then Ross for the rotation, I’d be happy.

    I’ve thought about that part of it too. The sample is tiny, but Heyward appears to acquit himself reasonably well statistically speaking in CF, at minimum I think he’d be a decent upgrade over Fowler. I wonder if you can’t do something like, say, sign Heyward and then someone like Rajai Davis, who would be cheap and appears to play a solid CF as well. Keep Soler, who’s only probably good for 110-120 games per year at best anyway. Play Heyward part-time in CF, part-time in RF. Schwarber in LF a lot of days, but also catching 30-40 games and likely sitting altogether against LHP. Soler switching to LF against LHP, otherwise in RF or resting. Davis in CF against LHP, Heyward shifts to RF those days (and the days Soler gets a breather).

    Maddon would be thrilled, because he’d get to move everybody around all the time and work in reps for everybody at multiple OF positions. Would buy the Cubs time to get more clarity on what they have in Soler and Schwarber long-term, and whether or not Almora is ever going to come through. In a year, revisit this shit again, maybe deal Soler at that point, move Heyward back to his more natural position full-time. Or, if it’s working, keep it going another year.

    Or maybe the NL will finally get its head out of its ass and bring in the DH at that point and this is permanently solved.

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  14. Author
    dmick89

    myles:
    Yeah, if Heyward signs an 8-year deal, he’d still be 34 on the last year of that deal. That’s pretty remarkable. I just think he’s getting close to $200 million from someone. That’s a lot of money.

    He might, but this is right in the Cubs wheelhouse. This is their dream player. If Ricketts has the money, it’s hard for me to believe the Cubs aren’t going to be seriously involved in negotiations for him. As good as Price is, Theo has said many times how they’re not going to invest huge chunks of money in players past their prime and that’s what Price is. That’s what Johnny Cueto is (he won’t cost as much though). Hayward is the exact type of player the front office has said they will be going after.

    I’ll be disappointed if they don’t. I won’t be upset if they fail to sign him. That’s really out of their control to some extent, but if they aren’t involved up to a certain point, that would disappointing. What that dollar value is, I don’t know.

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  15. myles

    It’s also important to note that Wrigley is one of the easiest CFs to play defensively. I’d be confident in Heyward’s ability to be average there for a few years.

    I definitely think the Cubs will be “in” on Heyward, whatever that means. I don’t think they’ll sign him; not when something like a dozen teams have a need for him and half of those have just as big of checkbooks as the Cubs do.

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  16. Smokestack Lightning

    myles: not when something like a dozen teams have a need for him and half of those have just as big of checkbooks as the Cubs do.

    True. But then, I said the same thing last year about Jon Lester.

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  17. Smokestack Lightning

    Also, I wonder if some teams with big checkbooks won’t be willing to go quite as high, because some will doubt the defensive metrics (which is where the bulk of the elite portion of his value comes from), and will balk at the idea of paying a corner OF 150+MM when he’s not a traditional masher at that position.

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  18. Mucker

    dmick89,

    That’s the beauty of the Cubs, they don’t really need him to be traditional 3/4 hitter. He could lead off or hit 2nd and be extremely valuable from those spots in the lineup.

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  19. aisle424

    If nothing else, the Cubs should push the price of Heyward up above what makes the Cardinals choke and they’ll lose him for the compensation pick no matter where he signs.

    The nightmare scenario is him signing a team-friendly extension to stay with the BFIB. I don’t think he will since it’s not like he was universally loved there. He still had to wait in line behind Yadi, Wainwright, and the corpse of Oscar Taveras for the key to the Cardinals fans hearts. Shit, more of those people worshipped that slack-jawed shit heel, John Lackey.

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  20. Smokestack Lightning

    aisle424: The nightmare scenario is him signing a team-friendly extension to stay with the BFIB.

    Yeah, I’d be pretty shocked if that happened. He seemed very much like a hired gun all year long.

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  21. cerulean

    dmick89:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    Yeah, Lester really surprised me last year.

    I don’t think they end up signing him either, but what a kick in the balls that would be to the cardinals if they did.

    This. Heyward was just about the only guy who showed up in the NDLS for the Cards.

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  22. berselius

    dmick89: I don’t think they end up signing him either, but what a kick in the balls that would be to the cardinals if they did.

    Would it be, though? I mean, I’m sure they’d love to have him back but it’s not like their OF situation is a wasteland or anything.

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  23. aisle424

    berselius: Would it be, though? I mean, I’m sure they’d love to have him back but it’s not like their OF situation is a wasteland or anything.

    I don’t know if they are sold on Matt Adams at first, so they have a hole there. Plus Matt Holliday isn’t getting any more durable. So Piscotty and Grichuk are a lock to fill 2 of the 4 OF/1B spots, then what? So they have some work to do.

    Plus their rotation is going to need a tweak or two as well depending on the statuses of Lynn, Martinez, and Lackey.

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  24. Author
    dmick89

    berselius,

    I think any time you take a 5-win player directly from a rival, it’s going to hurt. If the cardinals end up acquiring those wins back for a fraction of the price, that’s another story. It’s also just like the cardinals to do just that. They’ll trade Piscotty and Holliday for Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout in a 3 team trade. Plus they’ll get a couple players to be named later.

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  25. Smokestack Lightning

    Getting swept is pretty much zero fun, but I’ll take it any day over what Blue Jays fans just had to endure.

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  26. Suburban kid

    myles: I literally cannot find who Kyle Schwarber’s agent is, but he signed an under-slot deal so it probably isn’t Boras (dying laughing).

    Kyle Schwarber’s agent is Kent Mercker of all people.

    I can’t think of a funny 2004 Steve Stone joke to tie in with this comment.

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  27. Perkins

    Suburban kid: Kyle Schwarber’s agent is Kent Mercker of all people.

    I can’t think of a funny 2004 Steve Stone joke to tie in with this comment.

    Having learned from experience, Stone made sure to bar the door to the announcers’ booth in case he had occasion to criticize Schwarber or the Cubs

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  28. GW

    When was the last time the Cubs had a comp pick? They haven’t had very many; that’s one are where I was hoping for more throughout the rebuild.

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  29. berselius

    The national writers need to check with their urologist, they’ve been wanking off to base running for the last 10 hours now.

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  30. Author
    dmick89

    GW:
    When was the last time the Cubs had a comp pick? They haven’t had very many; that’s one are where I was hoping for more throughout the rebuild.

    I think it was 2012 when they took Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn.

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  31. Author
    dmick89

    berselius:
    The national writers need to check with their urologist, they’ve been wanking off to base running for the last 10 hours now.

    I hate the Royals. 5 years ago I couldn’t find a single person here in Topeka to talk baseball with. Now everyone wants to talk baseball and they have the dumbest fucking things to say. I just have to nod and smile.

    I used to like the Royals. Even a few years ago I did, but their fans annoy the hell out of me.

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  32. Smokestack Lightning

    berselius:
    The national writers need to check with their urologist, they’ve been wanking off to base running for the last 10 hours now.

    I’m just glad for the break after the bukkake session over the inherent superiority of “young starting pitching.”

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  33. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    And if the Cubs had made it, it would have been all about having a home run hitting lineup that grinds out ABs and makes pitchers work too hard, a loose clubhouse full of guys that “play dumb,” and a manager that bats the pitcher 8th.

    Oh, and the unstoppable predictive power of Back to the Future II.

    Just can’t stop the stupid.

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  34. Perkins

    Theo had a good take in an interview this week about how whichever team wins the World Series, that style will be “the right way to build a champion” according to the media, who will ignore that there are many ways to get there.

    Every time Theo talks to the media, it’s really comforting to see how much smarter he is than they are.

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  35. Perkins

    Not that I’d expect it to happen, but what would be a fair offer for Chris Sale? I’d have to think it would start at Schwarber, Baez, and Edwards plus.

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  36. berselius

    Smokestack Lightning: And if the Cubs had made it, it would have been all about having a home run hitting lineup that grinds out ABs and makes pitchers work too hard, a loose clubhouse full of guys that “play dumb,” and a manager that bats the pitcher 8th.
    Oh, and the unstoppable predictive power of Back to the Future II.

    At least that narrative would have crowded out all the goat/Bartman shit.

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  37. Author
    dmick89

    berselius: At least that narrative would have crowded out all the goat/Bartman shit.

    I thought TBS did a pretty good job with not talking about Bartman like FOX has. If the Cubs made the WS, that would have been mentioned 3 times per inning by Joe Fuck Yourself.

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  38. Author
    dmick89

    Perkins:
    Not that I’d expect it to happen, but what would be a fair offer for Chris Sale? I’d have to think it would start at Schwarber, Baez, and Edwards plus.

    It would start at too much. If the Cubs are going to give away a ton of young talent, I’d rather it be for Giancarlo Stanton.

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  39. berselius

    dmick89:
    Never mind. I forgot that Stanton signed a huge contract extension.

    Given recent Marlins history, they’ll probably try to move him for pennies on the dollar this offseason.

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  40. Perkins

    dmick89: It would start at too much. If the Cubs are going to give away a ton of young talent, I’d rather it be for Giancarlo Stanton.

    It’d almost certainly be too much, though it seems like the Cubs are close to having more talented young players than spots to play them.

    I’m assuming it’s a useless thought exercise anyway, since KW will want to hang onto Sale and Abreu through their prime years, even though it’s unlikely he and Hahn put enough talent around them to make it worthwhile.

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