Ballhawks can take 2012 off

One thing I've noticed while looking over the projections the past couple months is just how little power the Cubs have. Their starting lineup is practically filled with singles hitters. Alfonso Soriano still has some pop and so does Geovany Soto, but the rest of the lineup has none. I was wondering when the last time the Cubs starting lineup was projected to hit as few home runs as these starting 8 are.

I needed to figure out how many home runs the starting 8 were projected to hit. I used these players: Darwin Barney, Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro, David DeJesus, Bryan LaHair, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Ian Stewart. CAIRO projects a whopping 92 home runs from these guys. Leading the way is Soriano with 18 followed by LaHair and Soto with 14 each. This 92 projection isn't out of line with other projections either.

Guru projects 72 and ZiPS 85. On the other end is PECOTA at 103 and Oliver at 109. The average of these 5 is 92. That's the number we're interested in and now we have to see when the last time the Cubs starting 8 hit so few home runs.

  • 2011: 121
  • 2010: 111
  • 2009: 120
  • 2008: 150
  • 2007: 117
  • 2006: 117
  • 2005: 156
  • 2004: 200
  • 2003: 137
  • 2002: 161
  • 2001: 143
  • 2000: 127
  • 1999: 141
  • 1998: 157
  • 1997: 94
  • 1996: 135
  • 1995: 109
  • 1994: 84

I thought I'd look back through 1991 so we had 20 years and as I started looking at 1993 I realized that 1994 and 1995 were strike-shortened years. So while they did only hit 84 home runs in 1994, they did so in 113 games. If you prorate that over 162 games it's 120 home runs (1995, prorated 124). That 1994 team had more power than we're going to see in 2012. Onto the next few years.

  • 1993: 112
  • 1992: 68

It was 20 seasons ago when the Cubs starting 8 hit fewer home runs than the 2012 starting 8 is projected to 8. Here's a look at that starting 8.

Sammy Sosa hit 8 home runs for the cubs that year in 67 games. It was his first year with the team. Even that team had a couple players in Sandberg and Dawson who hit more than 20 home runs. No Cubs player according to CAIRO is projected to hit that many.

I sure hope The Cubs Way isn't a return to these types of teams. In year 1 of new management it certainly is. Hopefully future years won't be. I didn't enjoy most of the Cubs team in the 90s and probably wouldn't enjoy them again.

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