Cubs pitchers kwERA since 2000 and Happy Christmas

The other day GW wrote an article after Edwin Jackson signed with the Cubs. I was curious why he thought 2012 was a down season and I should have known. GW only looks at strikeouts and walks (and groundball rate). The reason for this is simple: Strikeouts and walks have proven to be very accurate predictors of future ERA.

FIP includes both of those stats, as well as home runs, which is in large part due to home run per fly ball luck. This got me thinking that we needed a way to display strikeouts and walks on an ERA scale because, well, that's what baseball fans are familiar with.

Then I remembered some work on Tango's blog that did just that, but I was unable to find it. The very next day, Glenn DuPaul wrote about the metric I was trying to think of on Beyond the Boxscore.

kwERA

It only includes the two metrics mentioned above. The formula is simple:  5.40 – (12*((K-BB)/PA))).

For BB I used the same thing as I do for FIP: BB-IBB+HBP and I subtracted IBB from PA. Below are the best Cubs kwERA seasons since 2000 (40 or more innings).

Name Season G GS IP RA9 ERA FIP kwERA
Tom Gordon 2001 47 0 45.3 3.57 3.38 2.37 2.11
Carlos Marmol 2010 77 0 77.7 2.67 2.55 2.01 2.40
Kyle Farnsworth 2001 76 0 82.0 2.85 2.74 2.81 2.59
Kerry Wood 2008 65 0 66.3 3.26 3.26 2.32 2.62
Sean Marshall 2010 80 0 74.7 3.01 2.65 2.28 2.70
Mark Prior 2003 30 30 211.3 2.85 2.43 2.47 2.75
Carlos Marmol 2007 59 0 69.3 1.43 1.43 2.72 2.85
Sean Marshall 2011 78 0 75.7 2.50 2.26 1.86 2.87
Mark Prior 2002 19 19 116.7 3.47 3.32 3.16 2.88
Rich Harden 2008 12 12 71.0 2.15 1.77 3.08 2.94
Carlos Marmol 2008 82 0 87.3 3.09 2.68 3.62 2.97
Jeff Fassero 2001 82 0 73.7 3.79 3.42 2.94 3.02
Joe Borowski 2002 73 0 95.7 2.92 2.73 3.23 3.12
Kyle Farnsworth 2003 77 0 76.3 3.66 3.30 3.06 3.20
Mark Prior 2005 27 27 166.7 3.94 3.67 3.85 3.22
Michael Wuertz 2005 75 0 75.7 4.28 3.81 3.28 3.25
Kerry Wood 2005 21 10 66.0 4.36 4.23 4.72 3.25
Scott Eyre 2006 74 0 61.3 3.67 3.38 4.57 3.25
Bob Howry 2006 84 0 76.7 3.29 3.17 3.43 3.27
Mark Prior 2004 21 21 118.7 4.02 4.02 3.53 3.27
LaTroy Hawkins 2004 77 0 82.0 2.96 2.63 3.54 3.28
Todd Van Poppel 2001 59 0 75.0 2.64 2.52 3.73 3.30
Rich Harden 2009 26 26 141.0 4.72 4.09 4.35 3.35
Jeff Samardzija 2012 28 28 174.7 4.07 3.81 3.55 3.37
Joe Borowski 2003 68 0 68.3 3.03 2.63 2.93 3.38
Kerry Wood 2003 32 32 211.0 3.28 3.20 3.71 3.41
Michael Wuertz 2007 73 0 72.3 3.73 3.48 3.94 3.44
Ted Lilly 2009 27 27 177.0 3.36 3.10 3.65 3.44
Matt Garza 2011 31 31 198.0 4.09 3.32 2.95 3.44
Bob Howry 2007 78 0 81.3 3.43 3.32 3.52 3.45
Bob Howry 2008 72 0 70.7 5.60 5.35 4.49 3.48
Kerry Wood 2001 28 28 174.3 3.61 3.36 3.51 3.48
Michael Wuertz 2006 41 0 40.7 3.10 2.66 3.93 3.53
Mike Remlinger 2003 73 0 69.0 3.91 3.65 4.48 3.54
Matt Clement 2002 32 32 205.0 3.69 3.60 3.34 3.55
Kevin Tapani 2001 29 29 168.3 4.97 4.49 3.97 3.61
Kerry Wood 2011 55 0 51.0 4.06 3.35 3.59 3.62
Kyle Farnsworth 2004 72 0 66.7 5.26 4.73 4.23 3.62
Matt Garza 2012 18 18 103.7 4.17 3.91 4.17 3.70
Roberto Novoa 2005 49 0 44.7 4.43 4.43 3.76 3.71
Ted Lilly 2007 34 34 207.0 3.96 3.83 4.16 3.72
Kerry Wood 2004 22 22 140.3 3.98 3.72 3.80 3.75
Rich Hill 2007 32 32 195.0 4.11 3.92 4.32 3.75
Matt Clement 2004 30 30 181.0 3.93 3.68 4.08 3.77
Kyle Farnsworth 2002 45 0 46.7 9.06 7.33 5.11 3.77
Carlos Marmol 2011 75 0 74.0 4.01 4.01 3.54 3.78
Kevin Gregg 2009 72 0 68.7 4.98 4.72 4.93 3.78
Tim Worrell 2000 54 0 62.0 2.90 2.47 4.13 3.78
Ted Lilly 2008 34 34 204.7 4.22 4.09 4.41 3.79
James Russell 2012 77 0 69.3 3.63 3.25 3.48 3.80
Ryan Dempster 2012 16 16 104.0 2.42 2.25 3.43 3.82
Courtney Duncan 2001 36 0 42.7 5.06 5.06 4.17 3.82
Jon Lieber 2002 21 21 141.0 4.09 3.70 3.39 3.83
Jason Bere 2001 32 32 188.0 4.74 4.31 4.09 3.83
Will Ohman 2006 78 0 65.3 4.13 4.13 3.87 3.84
Greg Maddux 2004 33 33 212.7 4.36 4.02 4.36 3.84
Ted Lilly 2010 18 18 117.0 4.08 3.69 4.46 3.87
Sean Marshall 2008 34 7 65.3 3.86 3.86 4.39 3.87
Ryan Dempster 2010 34 34 215.3 4.60 3.85 3.99 3.88
Jon Lieber 2000 35 35 251.0 4.66 4.41 4.23 3.89
Ryan Dempster 2009 31 31 200.0 4.23 3.65 3.87 3.90
James Russell 2010 57 0 49.0 6.80 4.96 5.20 3.92
Ryan Dempster 2008 33 33 206.7 3.27 2.96 3.41 3.93
Carlos Zambrano 2005 33 33 223.3 3.55 3.26 3.70 3.93
Kerry Wood 2002 33 33 213.7 3.88 3.66 3.86 3.93
Steve Rain 2000 37 0 49.7 4.53 4.35 5.27 3.94
Ryan Dempster 2011 34 34 202.3 4.94 4.80 3.91 3.95
Rich Hill 2006 17 16 99.3 4.62 4.17 4.67 3.96
Kevin Tapani 2000 30 30 195.7 5.20 5.01 4.77 4.01
Jon Lieber 2008 26 1 46.7 4.63 4.05 5.27 4.02
Shawn Camp 2012 80 0 77.7 3.71 3.59 3.69 4.03
Jon Leicester 2004 32 0 41.7 4.32 3.89 4.63 4.03
Will Ohman 2005 69 0 43.3 2.91 2.91 4.61 4.03
Juan Cruz 2001 8 8 44.7 3.22 3.22 3.74 4.03
Angel Guzman 2009 55 0 61.0 2.95 2.95 4.44 4.06
Aaron Heilman 2009 70 0 72.3 4.23 4.11 4.37 4.08
Ryan Dempster 2005 63 6 92.0 3.42 3.13 3.38 4.09
Jon Lieber 2001 34 34 232.3 4.03 3.80 3.79 4.09
James Russell 2011 64 5 67.7 4.92 4.12 4.77 4.11
Greg Maddux 2006 22 22 136.3 5.15 4.69 3.80 4.11
Carlos Silva 2010 21 21 113.0 4.38 4.22 3.75 4.12
Sean Marshall 2009 55 9 85.3 4.54 4.32 4.19 4.13
Juan Cruz 2003 25 6 61.0 6.49 6.05 4.11 4.13
Greg Maddux 2005 35 35 225.0 4.48 4.24 4.06 4.15
Kent Mercker 2004 71 0 53.0 2.55 2.55 3.80 4.15
Carlos Zambrano 2004 31 31 209.7 3.13 2.75 3.57 4.16
Jeff Fassero 2002 57 0 51.0 6.53 6.18 3.98 4.17
Carlos Marmol 2012 61 0 55.3 3.90 3.42 3.98 4.19
Ryan Dempster 2007 66 0 66.7 4.86 4.72 4.54 4.19
Glendon Rusch 2005 46 19 145.3 4.89 4.52 3.86 4.19
Glendon Rusch 2004 32 16 129.7 3.75 3.47 3.52 4.21
Carlos Zambrano 2006 33 33 214.0 3.83 3.41 4.14 4.22
Carlos Zambrano 2009 28 28 169.3 4.15 3.77 3.61 4.23
Randy Wells 2010 32 32 194.3 4.49 4.26 3.93 4.25
Matt Clement 2003 32 32 201.7 4.46 4.11 4.14 4.27
Sean Gallagher 2008 12 10 58.7 4.76 4.45 4.12 4.27
Travis Wood 2012 26 26 156.0 4.62 4.27 4.84 4.29
Jeff Samardzija 2011 75 0 88.0 3.58 2.97 3.66 4.29
Jason Bere 2002 16 16 85.7 6.62 5.67 4.50 4.29
Ryan Dempster 2006 74 0 75.0 5.64 4.80 3.79 4.30
David Aardsma 2006 45 0 53.0 4.25 4.08 5.15 4.33
Tom Gorzelanny 2010 29 23 136.3 4.62 4.09 3.92 4.34
Glendon Rusch 2006 25 9 66.3 7.73 7.46 7.02 4.35
Rick Aguilera 2000 54 0 47.7 5.29 4.91 5.92 4.36
Andrew Cashner 2010 53 0 54.3 5.14 4.80 5.03 4.36
Felix Heredia 2000 74 0 58.7 4.76 4.76 4.48 4.38
Antonio Alfonseca 2003 60 0 66.3 5.83 5.83 4.18 4.38
Carlos Zambrano 2003 32 32 214.0 3.70 3.11 3.47 4.38
Randy Wells 2009 27 27 165.3 3.65 3.05 3.88 4.43
Paul Maholm 2012 21 20 120.3 3.81 3.74 4.14 4.47
Kyle Farnsworth 2000 46 5 77.0 6.78 6.43 5.68 4.47
Todd Van Poppel 2000 51 2 86.3 3.96 3.75 4.59 4.47
Sean Marshall 2007 21 19 103.3 4.53 3.92 4.62 4.48
Antonio Alfonseca 2002 66 0 74.3 4.12 4.00 3.77 4.48
Carlos Zambrano 2010 36 20 129.7 3.82 3.33 3.71 4.52
Carlos Zambrano 2007 34 34 216.3 4.16 3.95 4.58 4.54
Justin Germano 2012 13 12 64.0 7.31 6.75 4.33 4.54
Casey Coleman 2011 19 17 84.3 6.62 6.40 4.57 4.55
Carlos Zambrano 2011 24 24 145.7 4.94 4.82 4.59 4.56
Carlos Zambrano 2008 30 30 188.7 4.05 3.91 4.23 4.60
Angel Guzman 2006 15 10 56.0 7.71 7.39 5.40 4.60
Michael Wuertz 2008 45 0 44.7 4.63 3.63 4.30 4.63
Randy Wells 2011 23 23 135.3 5.05 4.99 5.11 4.63
Ismael Valdez 2000 12 12 67.0 5.37 5.37 6.39 4.65
Roberto Novoa 2006 66 0 76.0 5.57 4.26 5.82 4.67
Kerry Wood 2000 23 23 137.0 5.06 4.80 4.92 4.68
Scott Eyre 2007 55 0 52.3 4.47 4.13 4.33 4.69
Carlos Zambrano 2002 32 16 108.3 4.40 3.66 4.18 4.69
Sergio Mitre 2004 12 9 51.7 6.62 6.62 4.52 4.71
Carlos Marmol 2009 79 0 74.0 3.53 3.41 4.06 4.71
Rodrigo Lopez 2011 26 16 97.7 5.16 4.42 5.36 4.75
Scott Downs 2000 18 18 94.0 5.65 5.17 4.93 4.78
Manuel Corpas 2012 48 0 46.7 5.21 5.01 5.19 4.81
Sergio Mitre 2005 21 7 60.3 5.52 5.37 5.46 4.81
Juan Mateo 2006 11 10 45.7 6.11 5.32 5.03 4.83
John Grabow 2011 58 0 62.3 5.63 4.76 5.08 4.84
Julian Tavarez 2001 34 28 161.3 5.47 4.52 4.26 4.87
Juan Cruz 2002 45 9 97.3 5.18 3.98 4.83 4.89
Doug Davis 2011 9 9 45.7 7.49 6.50 3.86 4.92
Chris Volstad 2012 21 21 111.3 6.55 6.31 5.11 4.95
Jason Marquis 2007 34 33 191.7 5.21 4.60 4.99 5.03
Ruben Quevedo 2000 21 15 88.0 8.28 7.47 6.70 5.05
Shawn Estes 2003 29 28 152.3 6.68 5.73 5.04 5.06
Jason Marquis 2008 29 28 167.0 4.69 4.53 4.61 5.09
Sean Marshall 2006 24 24 125.7 6.09 5.59 5.57 5.10
Daniel Garibay 2000 30 8 74.7 6.51 6.03 5.08 5.16
Mark Prior 2006 9 9 43.7 8.04 7.21 6.56 5.17
Mark Guthrie 2003 65 0 42.7 2.95 2.74 5.49 5.20
Jerome Williams 2005 18 17 106.0 4.25 3.91 4.91 5.27
Casey Coleman 2010 12 8 57.0 4.26 4.11 4.24 5.30
Carlos Marmol 2006 19 13 77.0 6.31 6.08 6.47 5.50

Mark Prior was damn good at baseball. Carlos Marmol has the 2nd best kwERA season since 2000 and the worst. That about sums up each appearance.

Happy Christmas from Obstructed View!

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