Even bad teams get hot

A few days ago some were feeling a little optimistic about this team. They'd just taken a couple series against two of the best teams in the league to this point. The games were at Wrigley so winning 4 of 6 is much less impressive than it sounds. The Cubs probably had 50% odds of winning each game. Had they been on the road it was probably closer to 40%. As a result we'd have expected the Cubs to win at least 3 of the 6. 

Still, winning creates optimism, but the season is long and even bad teams win games in bunches. The 2000 Cubs finished the season 65-97. They were horrible. They won 6 in a row from July 21st to July 27th. They won 17 of 22 that season from July 8th to August 2nd.

The 1999 Cubs won 5 in a row a couple different times early in the season. They were actually 9 games over .500 on June 8th. They finished the season with 67 wins.

The 2002 Cubs also won 67 games, but won 5 in a row and 12 of 19 at one point. The 2002 Cubs won 9 of the first 14 games they played on their way to a 66 win season. Finally, last year's team was a bit better than any of the others. They won 71 games. They also won 7 in a row at one point. They also won 12 of 15. Even the 56-win Astros last year won 7 of 11.

At some point this season the Cubs will win 5, 6 or maybe even 7 or more games in a row. They'll win 12 of 15 or 17 of 24. During that stretch they'll look like a really good baseball team. You probably don't win that many games over that long a stretch by looking bad. They'll look like a team who is set to contend in the near future if they add a piece here or there. They'll even beat some really good teams who will look as bad as the Cubs typically do over a week or two.

It's a long season. Every team will look good at times. Each team in baseball will have moments throughout the season in which they look like they're ready to contend in the near future.

I don't mean to shit on anybody's optimism here, but it's inevitable even a bad team like the Cubs will have stretches in which they don't look so bad. This is still a team that will scratch and claw it's way to 70 wins or so.

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