It is getting close to awards time. That means you are going to see the think-pieces come out soon where people will lay out ballots for MVP that don't comport with reality; for instance, there is a guy on twitter right now that has Yadier Molina as the current front-runner (with a calculation of 8.5 WAR this season – I wish I was making this up). I've decided that this year I'm going to take all of the guesswork out of it and make the definitive MVP selection system.
It's very easy and has 3 steps.
1. The MVP must come from the best player on each team. You'd think this would be self-evident, right? It's not. Yadier Molina is not qualified; 5 players on the offense have more WAR (and thus more value). What is probably going to be arguable here is that even if the 2nd most valuable player in the league is on the same team as the 1st, the 2nd can't receive any votes. While I can hear an argument against this, it seems rather self-evident that the player is inherently not worthy of consideration. It's also just easier for me, so don't hate.
This means the list of eligible players is as follows:
Jacob DeGrom/Curtis Granderson (tied)
Bryce Harper
Giancarlo Stanton
Shelby Miller
Odubel Herrera
Jason Heyward
Andrew McCutchen
Jake Arrieta
Ryan Braun
Joey Votto
Clayton Kershaw
Buster Posey
Paul Goldschmidt
Tyson Ross
Nolan Arenado
2. The team they are playing on must be relevant. If Barry Bonds was on the Phillies, they still wouldn't be in the race. I define value as being relevant in September. Note- you don't have to be a playoff team. I consider any team within 7 games of a playoff spot relevant, and I extend that by 1 game for each 7 games over 14 left. That means that right now, a team has to be within around 9 games to be considered alive.
Jacob DeGrom/Curtis Granderson (tied)
Bryce Harper
Giancarlo Stanton
Shelby Miller
Odubel Herrera
Jason Heyward
Andrew McCutchen
Jake Arrieta
Ryan Braun
Joey Votto
Clayton Kershaw
Buster Posey
Paul Goldschmidt
Tyson Ross
Nolan Arenado
3. The remaining players are ranked by the percentage of their team's WAR. This penalizes great teams, because any one player likely isn't that valuable (taking a 7 WAR player from a 98 win team and replacing him with a league average 2 WAR player means they are still a great team). On the other hand, this means that players that are really good on fringe teams are incredibly valuable: the Nationals are barely relevant right now, but they are ONLY relevant because Bryce Harper is so awesome.
DeGrom/Granderson (4.3) / Mets (19.7 + 17.8 = 37.5) = 11.5%
Bryce Harper (8.3) / Nationals (16.8 + 18.0 = 34.8) = 23.9%
Jason Heyward (3.9) / Cardinals (18.9 + 20.3 = 39.2) = 9.9%
Andrew McCutchen (5.4) / Pirates (18.0 + 17.1 = 35.1) = 15.4%
Jake Arrieta (5.8) / Cubs (19.7 + 18.3 = 38.0) = 15.3%
Clayton Kershaw (7.2) / Dodgers (22.6 + 20.3 = 42.9) = 16.8%
Buster Posey (5.5) / Giants (26.7 +7.5 = 34.2) = 16.1%
This means that I'd order the candidates:
1. Bryce Harper
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Buster Posey
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Jake Arrieta
6. Jacob DeGrom
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Jason Heyward
This comports pretty well with a traditional list. Harper is 1st in the NL in WAR; Kershaw is 2nd; Posey is 6th. The only person it penalizes is Arrieta, who moves from 5th in WAR and 3rd of eligible players for the MVP to 5th (Votto and Goldschmidt are not serious candidates, as both teams are awful with or without them).
There you have it. If I had to vote today (and if I had a vote), it's be Harper/Kershaw/Posey. Seems good to me.