The votes have been cast and if OV was in charge of the Hall of Fame, there would be four (FOUR!) new inductees this summer. Congratulations, Greg Maddux (98.8% of the vote), Frank Thomas (79.8%), Tom Glavine (78.6%), and Mike Piazza (75.0%)!
Some quick notes:
- Last year, we elected Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, and Barry Bonds, but only Piazza managed to retain enough of his votes with the additions of Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent etc.
- Only Craig Biggio's percentage of votes received went up between this year and last year, and his only went up one tenth of a percent so that doesn't even really count.
- Larry Walker dropped 26.8 percentage points from last year and Curt Schilling dropped 26.5 points as the biggest "losers" over the last year. Sosa and Palmeiro also dropped more than 20 percentage points each.
- Of 1st time candidates, only Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent would appear on next year's ballot. Luis Gonzalez (1 vote), Eric Gagne, Moises Alou and the rest (0 votes) failed to receive the required 5% to stay on the ballot.
- We had to discard a number of empty ballots because they were mostly duplicates and/or incomplete. There were 5 empty ballots that I counted that could have plausibly been real, and if so, Glavine and Piazza would have failed to reach 75%.
- We also discarded a few ballots that had as many as 16 yes votes because the maximum was 10.
- Greg Maddux was missing from only one valid ballot.
- The average ballot had 8.7 votes submitted, up slightly from last year's 8.5 per ballot. The BBWAA averaged 6.6 on their ballot last year and that was a record high in the 21st century.
- 50 of our 84 ballots had the maximum 10 votes.
Based on these results and taking a look at how the BBWAA voted last year, I think Maddux will get in for real. He won't get the 98.8% he got here because there actually will be a couple of blank ballots from the BBWAA like there always is and because I think some strategic voting may occur where some writers will figure Maddux gets in easily, so they'll use a vote that would normally have gone to Maddux to vote for somebody they fear may fall off the ballot, like Sosa or Palmeiro.
After Maddux, I don't know if Glavine and Thomas get in just because of the vote shortage, nd I would bet a significant amount of money that Piazza doesn't. Keep in mind that the BBWAA voted for almost 2 fewer candidates per ballot last year, and in our model, that's over 160 votes that would disappear. Where do they come from? If Thomas loses 5 votes and Glavine 4 votes in that new model, they don't get in. Piazza can not lose a single vote and still get in. Also, the BBWAA votes for guys like Lee Smith. Last year we gave Smith 25% and the BBWAA gave him 47.8%. He went down to 14.3% this year in our vote, but I bet he still gets around 20% from the BBWAA.
We hate Jack Morris. He got 8.3% this year after 13.8% last year. The BBWAA had him at 67.7% and this is his 15th and last year to appear on the ballot, so he's going to get a few sympathy votes. I don't think he gets in, but I also think Morris sucks up a lot of votes away from Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, and Biggio.
Some candidates to fall off the BBWAA ballot are Sosa (12.5% last year from BBWAA – Went from 53.8% to 32.1% ON A CUBS BLOG), McGwire (16.9% BBWAA, 36.3% OV2013, 17.9% OV2014), and Mattingly (13.2% BBWAA, 10% OV2013, 6% OV2014).
I also wonder how it would have come out if we had removed Piazza, Bonds, and Raines from our ballot since they would have been elected last year by us. That would have freed up 168 more votes to spread around. Maybe Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou get a little more love. Maybe Biggio gets in this time.
Thanks to everyone who participated and congratulations again to Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, and Piazza. Your OV Certificates of Classiness are in the mail.