Now that a month has passed, let's take a look back at what's gone wrong (and a few things that have gone right). First, a look at the batters. Here are the regulars' current slash lines, wOBA, BABIP, and preseason projected wOBAs. I'm only doing Johnson and Mather because they've picked up the most PAs of the bench guys, and because I'm lazy.
|C Geovany Soto||.135||.224||.250||.210||.154||.338|
|1B Bryan LaHair||.382||.470||.727||.489||.607||.341|
|2B Darwin Barney||.266||.310||.367||.299||.299||.296|
|SS Starlin Castro||.326||.344||.430||.344||.364||.334|
|3B Ian Stewart||.160||.222||.253||.209||.196||.317|
|LF Alfonso Soriano||.236||.250||.250||.212||.304||.321|
|CF Marlon Byrd||.070||.149||.070||.093||.091||.322|
|CF Tony Campana||.435||.458||.435||.461||.556||.289|
|RF David DeJesus||.254||.361||.310||.304||.327||.326|
|UT Reed Johnson||.226||.250||.419||.285||.318||.308|
|UT Joe Mather||.292||.414||.458||.397||.333||.289|
Bryan LaHair, Castro….that's about it.
LaHair has had *just* a bit of BABIP luck so far this year, but he's hitting the ball with enough authority not to worry so much about it.
Tony Campana is going to be a guy who crushes in the BABIP department due to his speed, but a run like this obviously won't as long. I like seeing him batting second, because he's the prototypical two-hole hitter who actually has speed as opposed to the prototypical two-hole hitter that plays in the middle infield but has average speed.
DeJesus has disappointed thus far, mostly in the power department. He is getting on base at a good clip though.
Darwin Barney is doing Darwin Barney things. He probbaly shouldn't be doing them in the second spot in the order, but his bulked-up transformation hasn't paid much in the way of dividends so far
Geovany Soto has just done nothing at the plate this year, and is already threatened by additional playing time by Clevenger/Castillo. There's a lot to be optimistic about in his line, however. For one, the .153 BABIP says he's suffered from some bad luck. His walk rate is right on with his career numbers, and he's actually striking out less than he has over the course of his career.
Soriano has been pants this month, collecting only two extra base hits following a scorching hot spring. Soriano is a streaky hitter so he will probably have one good month in him this year, but that's about it. He has looked significantly better on defense using the eyeball metric, but his past performance is a pretty low bar to clear. Unlike Geo there isn't a lot to read into his line, he's just sucked. We just have to wait for his power to come back.
I liked what I saw from Ian Stewart for the first week or so of the season, but things aren't looking so great now. At least with Soriano you have some hope for his power returning, while Stewart has looked like just as much of a mess as he was last year in Colorado. His admitting that his wrist is still bothering him is a worrisome sign. Joe Mather and Jeff Baker could be sneaking more PAs away from him before long. Unlike Soriano he doesn't have as much of a skillset to back up on – when he was helthy he was only a ~1.5 win player.
Marlon Byrd is gone. What a putrid line – I don't think I've ever seen a non-pitcher post a BABIP that low before. Since going to the Red Sox the hits have been falling in, but he's still yet to record and XBH this year.