OSS
Get well soon, Kyle.
Three Up
1. Anthony Rizzo matched Arizona in runs batted in with 6. He must have put the game thread on his locker for bulletin board material. Rizzo, if you're reading this, I'm sorry!!!
2. It's only a matter of time before you all get on my level re: Addison Russell hype. We are in a new golden age of young, excellent shortstops, and Russell is definitely in that category. Hustle went 2 for 4 with a double, single, and walk.
3. I'm going to give Schwarber his due here, even though Fowler, Bryant, and Zobrist also had great games. Schwarber only had one plate appearance before he was injured, but it was a great one, working the night's toughest PA into a walk.
Three Down
1. The MRI is scheduled for today. While it's just an ankle sprain at this point (maybe 2-3 weeks at the minimum, depending on inhuman he is), they'll also take a look at the knee, which looked worse to me than the ankle did. The long term ramifications of this aren't known, but I think I'd be surprised if Schwarber ends up behind the plate for a long time if ever. That's the one position you just can't have lower body injuries at and be successful. The knee is kind of important to catching.
2. John Lackey had nearly his worst start in 2 years. He looked bad early (first pitch to Jean Segura may as well have been underhand), and he was just so hittable. It's just one start, but he sure sucked yesterday.
3. You sort of have to make the list when you go 0-6. Sorry, Miguel Montero
Next Game
Today, 8:40 PM CST
Hammel vs. Ray
Comments
I’m hoping that Ross isn’t behind the plate today 🙁
berseliusQuote Reply
Re: Lackey
He was just throwing pitches right down the heart of the plate. The first 3 innings, he literally couldn’t throw a fastball below the belt. Everything was up.
Everyone is giving so much attention to Starlin Castro’s 8 RBI in his first 3 games as a Yankee. Rizzo has 9 RBIs in his first 3 games. Fancy that.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I was wondering when the last time the Cubs went 3-0 to start the season and I knew the quickest way to find out. Sure it was there, but Al took 10 paragraphs in his recap before he mentioned that nugget (1995).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I have to say I’m shocked if Schwarber “only” sprained his ankle. They can be devastating injuries too. But that knee looked like it bent out in a bad way. Schwarber must be made of steel.
I don’t have enough joyful words to describe this team. This offense has been better than I could have ever hoped. I know it’s only 3 games but man they are en fuego.
MuckerQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
To respond to you about the Show. Yes, the difficulty does determine how well you hit and pitch. I was on rookie because I’m a bitch. But it does have adaptive difficulty and it will increase the difficulty level if you are doing well. Right now, I’m on Veteran and approaching Veteran+ on batting and pitching. It’s definitely getting more difficult. And I’ve been striking out more and hitting the ball less. So it’s starting to balance out. The test will be on tonight’s game when I get Arrieta for his 2nd start. I doubt I get 18 Ks and a perfect game with 2 outs in the 9th again.
MuckerQuote Reply
Alvin’s Priorities:
Who will start in LF now? — two sentences
Who will be the 26th man called up? — five PARAGRAPHS
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
You and me both.
mylesQuote Reply
Schwarber said it’s both the ankle and knee. That really sucks. I’d guess best case scenario he’s back in a couple months. Worst case is he misses the entire season. The Cubs are probably 2-3 wins worse with Soler/Baez/Whoever depending on many different things, including how much Ross plays behind the plate. The Cubs were built for this, but it kind of sucks that 3 games into the season they may no longer be the best team in baseball. I kind of liked that they were.
dmick89Quote Reply
Question for JD: what’s the main ingredient in Rizzos?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Mucker,
Are female dogs notoriously bad at videogames or something?
MillertimeQuote Reply
I actually picked up MLB the show 15 last week, and picked up some modded rosters from Operation Sports. I spend way too much time dicking around with rosters than actually playing, so spending money on last year’s game felt like the way to go.
MillertimeQuote Reply
The loss of Schwarber resulted in a 17.8% drop in the Cubs playoff odds: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
They’re now projected by PECOTA to finish the season with 87-88 wins, only a few better than the Pirates. It drops the Cubs to the fourth best record in the National League. I think PECOTA is being a bit pessimistic, but this is probably a bigger loss to the Cubs than we’d like to admit.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wonder if other players look at Rizzo and say to themselves “I should probably not sign that extention, and opt for early FA instead”.
MillertimeQuote Reply
dmick89,
So in a weird way, my request for the Cubs to somehow get rid of one of their good players to make things more competitive and drama filled worked? I need to stop holding that Monkey’s paw when I wish for things.
MillertimeQuote Reply
We know Jorge Soler will hit the DL a couple times this year so things could get real interesting. Thank god the Cubs signed Dexter Fowler.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Is that based on him missing the season entirely? If he’s back in July, that projection is horseshit. I think it’s horseshit even with him missing the season. If it was Rizzo, then yeah I’d say the Cubs would falter big time. But I don’t think losing Schwarber is going to have a huge impact.
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I was trying to figure out how they got to that point, but I’m honestly having a difficult time. First thing to remember is that the PECOTA simulated win projection was 91 wins. From what I can tell, they haven’t added in replacement players for about half a season of games in LF or so. I’m not sure how much that matters as Soler/Baez/Whoever aren’t likely to add more than half a win in that time realistically.
I think we should wait a few days to see where these standings have them at, but I’m guessing it’s closer to 88-89 wins than where they currently have them.
If you wanted to use the Steamer projections, which seem way too optimistic for me, it probably reduces them to about 95 wins and still the best team in baseball.
Regardless of their new projected win total, losing Schwarber for an extended amount of time hurts this team more than I was initially thinking. That’s partly because it’s inevitable that Soler will land on the DL and in part because Soler simply was not any good last season. Hopefully he’s better, but we’ll have to see. This is still the best team in the NL Central at the very least and that’s what matters.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is basically how I feel.
MuckerQuote Reply
I feel the same way. If what put the Cubs into that best team in baseball category was Kyle Schwarber, then imo this team’s claim to BTIB was very, very shaky to begin with. I didn’t expect big things from him this year even if he did stay healthy. Modest offensive regression coupled with persistent awful defense equaled just about the same production in a full year as he managed in a half in my mind. 2 WAR. Maybe 2.5.
Could be the Cubs will struggle to replace those two wins, but imo they should be able to get pretty close. And with the talent on the roster, it’s possible they even end up better off.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I think that it’s probably too early to give up on Soler, but when I think of a primary replacement for Schwarber I’m actually hopeful that Baez can pick up where he left off last September and get the bulk of the ABs. Between the defensive upgrade you’d get by sliding Zobrist to left putting Baez at second and getting average-to-above production from Baez at the plate, the dropoff seems tangible but not crippling.
I’m still wondering about what the decision to DH Soler in Anaheim means regarding the club’s confidence in his defensive abilities, or if that was just aimed at keeping him healthy. (Or neither.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I figured Schwarber was good for 2 WAR with the potential to easily exceed 4. I don’t think his defense is as bad as others do and I felt he had the potential (even though unlikely) to hit 40+ home runs. I’d have probably predicted 3 to 3.5 WAR from him over a full season. I’d also have predicted about 0.5 to 1 for Soler.
As I said, it depends on which projection system you use. If you felt better with the 97 win one, stick with it.
It wasn’t that Kyle Schwarber made them the best team in baseball. Had the injury happened to anyone using the PECOTA projections, even John Lackey or Jason Hammel, they’d no longer be projected to be the best team. What made them the best team was the group as a whole. Remove part of that group and they are no longer the best team using PECOTA. FWIW, PECOTA had the Dodgers as slightly better than the Cubs to begin with.
dmick89Quote Reply
Does that projection include all of the pitcher injuries for LA?
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Yeah, it’s too early to give up on him, but between his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) and offensive production so far, I’m not expecting much above replacement from him. I also agree about Baez in that I’m hoping and expecting he’ll eventually get the bulk of the playing time though I think he’ll play 3rd with Bryant in LF. Zobrist signed with the Cubs to play 2nd base so I think they keep him there most of the time. I don’t think much better of Baez offensively, though I think he has more potential and is clearly the better defender making him more valuable. It’s probably still a 2 win loss, but the Cubs had a pretty good cushion. It’s just going to suck if it’s the entire year because you know there will be another injury or two.
dmick89Quote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I’m not sure how they handled that. I looked either the day before the season started or on Opening Day and saw they had the Dodgers a win or two better than the Cubs using the simulated win totals, which is based on updated playing time estimates. I’d assume it accounted for it, but I don’t know. I think you can easily argue the Dodgers are better. I also think it’s easy to argue the Cubs are better. I thought the Cubs were, but I’m biased as hell.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s kind of funny. I usually have lower expectations for players who have yet to prove themselves than most around here. I certainly think Schwarber was a candidate to regress, but I thought there were better odds that he’d improve as he became more comfortable in the outfield. More importantly, I thought he’d perform better because he wouldn’t be catching 120+ games. Add in the postseason (why shouldn’t you?) and Schwarber had one hell of a rookie season. He hit nearly as many home runs (21 in just over 300 PA) as Bryant in considerably fewer plate appearances (28 in just over 700 PA). I think Schwarber had become the easy player to underestimate this season and I think it was based almost entirely on his weight. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think people were beginning to underestimate just how good Schwarber could be.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t think that’s true of the average fan, but perhaps the type of fan that visits this place (discredited fans). The average fan thinks this is the end of the season for some dumb reason, or at least that’s what twitter thought last night. That’s just silly. This is still a great team. It’s just not as good as it could have been.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I agree. Losing Schwarber is going to suck from a couple of perspectives. The power is the obvious one. But the loss of flexibility in the lineup will be another. Now Soler and Baez will be relied upon much more where as I think the Cubs probably preferred them in a sub/platoon role, as well as, giving more games to Ross and Montero at C.
All that said, I still think this team will easily make the playoffs. And if Schwarber’s injury isn’t as serious as expected(last I heard Cubs are “very concerned”), then this team should be able to make a strong push for the WS.
MuckerQuote Reply
dmick89,
As stated above, only thing that really matters is whether they’re better than the other four teams in their division. Right now I’d say it’s still pretty clear they are. Beat them, and then hope to have Schwarber back by the time you face the best of the rest. Sucks he’s probably losing a year of development, but the ultimate trajectory of the team could remain largely unchanged, especially if he’s back and healthy by October.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Which is why I’m downplaying the injury a little more than it probably should be. Average fans are acting like it’s Prior/Wood redux, and it’s not.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Question, as I’m not familiar with the mechanics of the various projection systems (other than that they estimate conservatively): does any of them account for the effect of chaining together good hitters, or are they simply aggregates of expected individual performances?
My understanding is that offense doesn’t increase linearly, that there’s a compound effect on run scoring for the type of deep lineup the Cubs (still) possess.
PerkinsQuote Reply
No, chaining isn’t taken into account in the projection systems to my knowledge. At least not in the individual player projections. You’re right that it does add up when you have a lineup as deep as the Cubs do, but obviously it would be better if it was even deeper. I think that’s one of the things that’s going to cost the Cubs in that I think we’ll see lineups that we wouldn’t have otherwise seen. For example, I expect Ross will play a lot more than we had hoped he would and that’s really going to hurt on those days.
Overall though, this is still easily the best team in the division on paper and probably a top 2 or 3 team in the league. It’s a bit less fun for me because I enjoyed watching Schwarber hit more than any other Cub. Watching him hit was a little like watching Sosa hit. You almost expected a home run. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Odds have been updated again at BP. 1 day increase. Still not exactly sure what they’re doing, but I like it better. (dying laughing) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
dmick89Quote Reply
Watching him hit is definitely fun. Plus he and I share a birthday (several years apart), so that’s kinda neat.
I also realized that the next jersey I get will be the first of a player younger than I am. So that’s what getting old feels like.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Sounds like Kawasaki————-> Cubs.
Nothing official yet
berseliusQuote Reply
The OV podcast mentioned the Minneapolis delicacy Juicy Lucy. I’d never heard of it in all my several decades. In the same fucking week, I see the Scottish comedian Billy Connolly doing a travel show on UK TV and he’s visiting MN — and heads to Matt’s, the home of the Juicy Lucy since 1954. Apparently Pres. Obama came to the joint to try a Juicy Lucy on the same day Matt died aged 90. I’m hungry.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
So YOU’RE our listener!!!
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
You might get another listener if you start talking about the Cubs or even baseball less than 8 minutes in. Just sayin’.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Speaking of food, I’m making beer brats this weekend. Anyone have thoughts on what kind of (non-disposable) pan might be best for the beer stage if I want to do it over direct heat on the grill? I grew up too far south of Wisconsin to know this stuff.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Shit on my father’s balls, this sucks.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Damn.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I don’t want to know.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Sad. Face. Day. Here’s hoping Schwarber recovers well. That’s a shitty fucking injury.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Yeah, it’s best not to check the news. His knee will remain in a state of quantum superposition until you look.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
He’s going to have his leg removed at the knee. Will be out for at least 6 months.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t know why he can’t just rub some dirt on it and get back in the lineup.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ross catching? Jesus. So is Ross really going to catch 40% of the time, because if so, this sucks even more.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’m hoping this isn’t a permanent thing, and they’re only doing this because Montero was expecting an off-day.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat, I would hope so. I'd rather they call up Contreras too early than start Ross two times per turn through the rotation.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’d guess 3.5 times, depending on off days for the team.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I have a feeling the Cardinals won’t win 100 games this season.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Someone should tell these pitchers that Jean Segura isn’t that good.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Randy has the Cubs losing this one (46).
MylesQuote Reply
I’m all for Contreras if he can play LF in days he doesn’t catch.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Good idea. If Schwarber can, I’d assume Contreras could.
dmick89Quote Reply
That was ugly
dmick89Quote Reply
The rare double TOOTBLAN to end the 5th. I guess Fowler’s was defensible, but wtf was Rizzo doing there?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Lots of ugly plays this game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You should pinch-hit for Ross, Joe.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I’m still not sure why he started, but I figure he’s in there even if this goes 30 innings.
dmick89Quote Reply
Why pitch to their best hitter? Stupid.
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, there goes the once-promising 2016 season. See you on 2017.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
We’ll always have the first three games.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Ah well, at least I had good company for this game
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
So you took my advice and called that escort service, huh?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
There is a strip club around the corner from this hotel…and if my friend is to be believed, his brother knows half the girls there.
berseliusQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/dbacks-3-cubs-2-4816/
berseliusQuote Reply