Cubs 4, Braves 3 (7.17.17)

In Postgame by berselius185 Comments

OSS: Cubs manage not to ruin a great start by Jon Lester.

Three up:

  1. Lester was great tonight, which is especially nice to see after the play about pieces of feces that was his last start before the break. Lester gave up just three hits with one walk and six strikeouts in seven innings, and was cruising along well enough that he probably could have gone out for another inning. He also had a great day at the plate, just missing a home run in his first PA, drawing a four-pitch walk in his final PA, and even gathering his first career stolen base.
  2. Rizzo remains hot at the plate – his 23rd home run of the season was a laser beam to CF. He also added a walk and a single on the night.
  3. The next highest by WPA was Addison Russell, who had a big pinch hit double in the eighth that ended up being the winning run.

Three down:

  1. It was not a great night for Wade Davis to say the least. He gave up three hits, two walks, a wild pitch, and nearly the game.
  2. The Cubs had Teheran on the ropes for much of the middle innings but failed to cash in on a lot of the RISP situations. Kyle Schwarber in particular had the lowest WPA on the day for the Cubs players.
  3. John Lackey pitches tomorrow.

Next up: John Lackey takes on rookie Sean Newcomb, the Braves first round pick in 2014. He’s made six starts this year and has been relatively solid, though the projection systems have him pegged to walk 5-6 batters per nine instead of his current MLB number of 3.98.

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  1. cerulean

    The Dodgers Elo rating has been nearly vertical after their middling start. I was surprised to find the 2013 Dodgers had a similar streak of unbeatability in the middle of the season going from 12 games under to 28 games over in the course of two months—a net of 40 games over. They then finished the last few weeks 6 games under.

    Those are some crazy swings. In the spirit of crazy swings How many wins in the next thirty games does this team have to get to match preseason expectations—feeling, not win total? How many wins in a row would would do it?

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  2. cerulean

    The Cubs had Teheran on the ropes for much of the middle innings but failed to cash in on a lot of the RISP situations. Kyle Schwarber in particular had the lowest WPA on the day for the Cubs players.

    To be fair to Kyle, he crushed a groundliner at 111mph that Freeman picked for the final out. That shit has been happening to him all year. It would have cleared the juiced bases easily.

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  3. cerulean

    Perkins,

    dmick89,

    I thought about 16-in a row or 25 of 30. If memory serves, they went 25–6 (or maybe ot was 27–8) twice last year, so 25–5 would be a better stretch than they had done all of 2016. So long as they didn’t suffer any extended slump afterward, I think I would like their chances against the Nats and Dodgers and Astros, which if they win the division is the most likely path.

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  4. cerulean

    Also, two winning streaks of nine and three of seven and four of six in succession would make me feel like they were back for good.

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  5. EnricoPallazzo

    dmick89: That would work. I was thinking 26 of 30.

    how about a stretch where they look good for like 2 or 3 games and then look like a bunch of minor league assholes for the next 2 or 3 games, thus remaining exactly at .500? would that do it for you guys?

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  6. Perkins

    EnricoPallazzo: how about a stretch where they look good for like 2 or 3 games and then look like a bunch of minor league assholes for the next 2 or 3 games, thus remaining exactly at .500? would that do it for you guys?

    (dying laughing) it was that type of thinking that got them into this mess.

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  7. Perkins

    I remember reading about a Lackey start maybe a month back where he turned it around after the first inning and overall had a pretty good game. After the game, he noted that he succeeded by throwing fewer strikes.

    He maybe should keep trying to do that, since anything he puts in the zone is likely to end up in the seats.

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  8. BVS

    Perkins,

    He’s been much “better” at issuing walks this year.

    But hey, never fear! 10 days off to cure olantar fasciitis is plenty. He’ll be A New Man.

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  9. Perkins

    BVS,

    I’m genuinely curious whether Hendricks replaces him or Montgomery in the rotation. I’m assuming Montgomery, but it’d be pretty interesting to see how Lackey would take a demotion to the bullpen.

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  10. BVS

    Perkins,

    Yeah, agreed. But Lackey hasn’t been good in the first inning, so I don’t see how he fits as a reliever. OTOH, he has had moments of pretty good sportsmanship, like honoring the injury contract clause with StL, so maybe…but OTOOH he’s kinda been calling out Maddon’s use of pitchers.

    It could go either way…

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  11. dmick89

    Perkins,

    He wouldn’t accept a move to the pen. He’d request a trade or go home until he was released. If the Cubs were really good and looking like strong contenders to repeat, he’d probably take the demotion and complain all the time.

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  12. Author
    berselius

    Perkins:
    cerulean,

    I’d say a 20 game win streak or winning something like 20 of 22 would get them back in that neighborhood.

    Too bad the Cardinals will go 66-6 to close out the year

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  13. Berselius is too lazy to login

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    LF Zobrist
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    C Contreras
    SS Russell
    CF Almora
    RF Heyward
    2B Baez
    P Leoclos

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  14. Rizzo the Rat

    Sources confirm: Correa to undergo surgery to repair torn ligament in left thumb. Trout missed 7 1/2 weeks after same procedure.

    — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 18, 2017

    Well, this sucks.

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  15. Berselius is too lazy to login

    I am surprised that there are so many people still in the stands.

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  16. Rizzo the Rat

    You know, Javy, you could have achieved the same result by laying off any of the last five pitches.

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  17. Berselius is too lazy to login

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Jay
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Happ
    Schwarber
    Baez
    Russell
    Caratini
    Montgomery

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  18. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I’m waiting to see how they respond after a loss. This team loves losing streaks so my fear is that after this ends, they’ll lose 3-5 games and be right back where they were.

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  19. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Yes, it looks that way. In either case, both Lester and Quintana would have faced the Cardinals, but this order lines up Quintana to face the Brewers and miss the White Sox, who probably have a better book on him than most teams.

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  20. Perkins

    Montgomery!!!!!!!!!!!

    (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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  21. cerulean

    Russell is 4–4? Is this the alternate reality we thought we were getting at the beginning of the year?

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  22. Edwin

    This nonsense has gone on long enough. A hot dog is a sandwich. People might not say the phrase “hot dog sandwich” but it doesn’t change the fact that a hot dog belongs to the sandwich family. A piece of meat, between two slices of bread, = sandwich. Happy national hot dog day.

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  23. cerulean

    Edwin,

    When I say “bird”, do you think of a penguin or an ostrich? No? When I say “car”, you probably imagine something that a person drives on a road, not something pulled by a train. The term “sandwich” is similarly fuzzy and dynamic. For some, anything that satisfies the bread-meat-bread form will be a sandwich, but then what about open-face sandwiches? What about breadbowls? What about wraps? Lettuce wraps?

    Changing domains, what about the essential nature of a sandwich, the outer-inner-outer-ness of sandwichosity? Like a linebacker-quarterback-linebacker? Or semi-car-semi? Or one’s state in the non-window, non-aisle seat on a plane? See how this quickly gets out of hand?

    And no, a hot dog is not a sandwich, it’s a kind of meat product. You are thinking of a hot dog sandwich. (dying laughing)

    (I recommend Surfaces and Essences by Hofstadter and Sander if you are into thinking about this kind of thing. There is an audiobook for it, if you’re into that kind of thing.)

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  24. cerulean

    Edwin:
    dmick89,

    I feel like my words are being twisted against me.

    This is the purpose words. It’s called communication. Do you feel you are being communicated improperly? Do you have instructions?

    Oh, you do. Well, I don’t read instructions—they violate my sense of communication.

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  25. cerulean

    The Sox then insisted on bunting to move the runners over and bunted into a DP that got the lead runner (dying laughing)

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  26. SK

    When it comes to hot dogs I’m more annoyed by the lame Chicago ketchup ban.

    I mean, you can argue that ketchup is a bad condiment in general; a childish one, with nothing to offer but sugary lubrication. That is a defensible position. But if you have time for ketchup in other areas, why be such a nazi when it comes to dogs?

    Unless you drown the hot dog in it, you still taste the hot dog. You still taste the onions, the mustard, and whatever else you put on it. Ketchup doesn’t kill it, because ketchup is mild with a submissive flavor (if used in moderation).

    Telling people how to enjoy food: sure sign of a truly decadent civilization.

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  27. Ryno

    SK:
    I’m…childish…with nothing to offer but sugary lubrication…with a submissive flavor (if used in moderation). truly decadent.

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  28. Berselius is too lazy to login

    Perkins:
    As Brett pointed out, Cubs and Brewers are tied in the loss column.

    He made a great choice for the header photo on that one.

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  29. Berselius is too lazy to login

    The Cubs playoff odds on BP have increased by 30% in the past week.

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  30. Perkins

    Berselius is too lazy to login,

    538 and FG are also giving them very good odds, though FG’s model has been pretty high on them all along.

    Both are projecting them for around 89 wins, which seemed nigh impossible a week ago. Here’s hoping they go at least another week before losing a game.

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  31. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I pity the NL Wild Card team that has to play them.

    I’m assuming the other NLDS will be the Cubs against the Nationals, and even though they’re really good, I don’t hate the Cubs’ chances in a series against a Dusty Baker-managed team.

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  32. dmick89

    Perkins: I don’t hate the Cubs’ chances in a series against a Dusty Baker-managed team.

    I’m holding off on any celebrations about this team being back until they lose a game. I still expect them to lose several in a row.

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  33. dmick89

    SK,

    I haven’t had a hot dog in a long time and haven’t had one in Chicago since I was about 12 years old. I never liked ketchup growing up, but wouldn’t those places have ketchup with the french fries they serve?

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  34. Perkins

    dmick89: I’m holding off on any celebrations about this team being back until they lose a game. I still expect them to lose several in a row.

    Also fair. If they can avoid a losing streak the next time they lose a game, I’ll remain cautiously optimistic.

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  35. JonKneeV

    dmick89:
    SK,

    I haven’t had a hot dog in a long time and haven’t had one in Chicago since I was about 12 years old. I never liked ketchup growing up, but wouldn’t those places have ketchup with the french fries they serve?

    Ketchup is always available at a hot dog stand. Just some hot dog snobs turn their nose up at you if you put ketchup on it. It’s really a mystery while people feel so strongly about it.

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  36. cerulean

    JonKneeV,

    This is the kind of outrage that promotes brand awareness—probably encouraged or even prompted by Vienna Beef amd Red Hot Chicago. It’s the any news is good news kind of guerrilla marketing that got Trump elected.

    These kinds of conflicts overwhelm our sense of proper scale of fuck-given-ness by their arbitrary absurdity while we turn a blind eye to the innumerable actual terrible or messed-up things that could really make a difference. Unfortunately, knowing that the stakes are so low likely helps make it a more attractive topic of outrage.

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  37. cerulean

    Speaking of scale, at our current population growth rate of about 1.1% a year, it will take less than 9000 years to use up all of the particles in the universe just to comprise human bodies.

    #WeAreAllTheStardust

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  38. cerulean

    dmick89:
    Apparently Clarence Woods picked up a save in that 21-6 game. How is that possible?

    I wouldn’t even trust Grimm with a 15-run save.

    That has to be an error. The save didn’t come into being until much later, so my guess is whatever algorithm checked to see whether a save should be applied failed or a human entering data hit the wrong button. Either way, E10, -1 Data Run Saved.

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  39. dmick89

    cerulean: Ten earned. That’s probably about as rare as no-hitters.

    I know you said earned runs, but I decided to look for runs allowed. A starter has given up 10 or more runs 1235 times, but most of them were back when pitchers regularly completed games.

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  40. cerulean

    dmick89,

    Yeah, I don’t mean in all of history. Given the evolution and expansion of the bullpen, a starter left out there to just wear it doesn’t often happen.

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  41. dmick89

    cerulean,

    Yeah, I might narrow it down later, but I was actually curious. 1235 times is a lot, but considering how many games have been played and how pitchers used to throw the entire game, it’s not as many as I expected.

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  42. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I remember Jason Marquis being pissed at La Russa for leaving him in the game when his stuff wasn’t there to the tune of 13 earned runs. The team that signed him after such a performance must have been a real winner.

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  43. cerulean

    It’s irrational given recent performance, but I have the feeling the Barves will sweep the Doggers.

    EDIT: It’s a four-game series in LA with Kershaw in the final game. Completely and utterly irrational.

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  44. cerulean

    Dillon Maples has a better BB-rate this year than Dellin Betances. Similar K-rate too. I like living on the edge.

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  45. dmick89

    cerulean: It’s irrational given recent performance, but I have the feeling the Barves will sweep the Doggers.

    If you take away the four games the Dodgers will win, I agree. I think it’s about 50/50 that they never lose again this year. (dying laughing)

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  46. cerulean

    Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) was on Sam Harris’s podcast. It may be worth a listen just to understand the lengths that some will go to interpret the rhetoric and actions of Donald Trump in a non-malicious way.

    But really, this connoisseur of persuasion has persuaded himself that Donny is a master persuader. All I see are the underhanded manipulations of a six-year-old—to which I am immune.

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  47. dmick89

    cerulean: All I see are the underhanded manipulations of a six-year-old—to which I am immune.

    And he’s not even all that successful at manipulating people in my opinion. Outside of winning the GOP primary, which really comes down to there being a million people running for it, I’m not sure he’s succeeded too much along the way. His base is about the same size as it was when he started. He lost the election, but the electoral college saved him. He hasn’t been able to accomplish shit since he’s taken office other than putting pen to paper to push some of his agenda through. The GOP controls the house and senate and they really haven’t come close to passing their own version of healthcare. The wall is never happening. The muslim ban has been partially overturned. It’s been one misstep after another. It really boggles my mind how some analysts pretend as if he’s accomplished much.

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  48. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    cerulean:
    It’s irrational given recent performance, but I have the feeling the Barves will sweep the Doggers.

    EDIT: It’s a four-game series in LA with Kershaw in the final game. Completely and utterly irrational.

    You’re 25% there.

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