Cubs 9, Reds 2 (4/14/2016)

In Uncategorized by myles106 Comments

OSS: My original title was "Cubs a fuckload, Reds not nearly as many," but I want to trick people into still coming to this website.

Three Up

1. Kris Bryant absolutely crushed one down the left field line for a HR. He also had 2 walks. He might be heating up.

2. Miguel Montero is good. He had 3 runs scored, 2 walks, and another hit. He also had a decent game behind the plate.

3. Jorge Soler had a really good game (2-2, BB), but Jason Heyward had a sick-nasty catch in RF that made me jump out of my seat. He added a 2-run single and has just generally been extremely pleasant to watch play baseball. 

Three Down

1. All of the Alfredo Simon couldn't get out of the first inning, and the Cubs notched their second 40+ pitch inning of the year. There will be a lot more where that came from, methinks.

2. This location. There aren't many times that you are going to get that lucky working in the middle of the zone.

3. Brandon Phillips had the low WPA of the game for hitters, and has looked pretty bad this series in general.

Next Game

7:05 PM CST
Iglesias vs. Hammel
TV: CSN
Radio: 670 the Score

 

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  1. Millertime

    Maybe some more click-baity titles for these posts. “You’ll never believe how many runs the Cubs scored…”. “This one trick helped the Cubs put up 5+ runs”. “Opposing pitchers hate this one lineup…”.

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  2. cerulean

    Cubs 9, Reds 1 (dying laughing)
    (The discredit is strong with this one)

    This team.

    The Cubs have now scored 56—tied for most runs with LA in one fewer played. They have given up only 20 runs, second to Washington’s 17 in one more game played, so a very close second on a per game basis. This seems very unsustainable, but the way they methodically eat through starting pitchers doesn’t seem like it’s prone to as much statistical regression on the scoring side. The pitching, however, will not be this good. So what does that look like? Even at 4.5 RA a game, the Cubs are still a plus 20 runs—a plus 405 over 162 games.

    With the Warriors still on my mind, I think it’s worth imagining what a baseball team analog would be like. The Warriors broke basketball with the 3-point shot, lead by the Messi of the sport. (Steph Curry: also impossible.) It’s a shot invented to counteract the traffic jam around the rim. For decades, it has been used almost exclusively for that purpose, despite a .33 FG% being equal to a .50 FG% of two-point shots. And the Warriors are are turning the adage of living and dying by the three into a feast.

    That’s what the Cubs have been doing with their patience thus far. And while the strikeouts are numerous—Heyward for instance K-ed twice in the first but saw 11 pitches—they are also loading up the bases and wearing down pitchers so that the hits that come often drive in runs. And knowing what we know about the statistics of different counts, pitchers are more likely to take a chance at making sure the first pitch is a strike, and the power of even the Addison Russells of the lineup is enough to make them pay—to the tune of 388 feet into a crowd of excitement-drunken fans (though the Old Style swill helped).

    Controlling that strike zone is that spacing on the floor, and this team is willing to do what dawned on Almora last year—to take what they are given, even if it means an eventual strikeout, because the reward over the course of the game and the series outweighs it. The goal is not a walk, the goal is to have that option. (Note also that the Cubs’ pitching strategy has been to limit walks more than anything else.)

    In that regard, the Cubs are analogous to the Warriors in exploiting a wrinkle of the game that has always been there but is often overlooked for putting the ball in play, the elbow jumper of baseball. Because I am a homer, I said 105 wins for this team. And because I am a homer, I think they have a legitimate chance of winning the most games in the regular season since the 2001 Mariners, though losing Schwarber hurts significantly. But I will temper such speculation until they have gone 19–1 or 26–4. If they start out 73–9…well…get excited because that is, dare I say, impossible.

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  3. berselius

    Maybe next time the Reds should send out Simon Alfredo instead of Alfredo Simon. It couldn’t be much worse.

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  4. berselius

    Jokisch ————> Sea
    Cubs 40-man ———–> 39

    This feels more like the Cubs doing Jokisch a solid than any sort of precursor to something else. No way he cracks the rotation any time soon unless things are a complete disaster.

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  5. Ryno

    With the Rams trading for the first pick in the draft (to draft a QB), CLE’s pick at No. 2 just got way more valuable.

    If the first six picks go like I think they will…

    1. LAR – Carson Wentz
    2. ? – Jared Goff
    3. SD – Laremy Tunsil
    4. DAL – Jalen Ramsey
    5. JAX – Myles Jack
    6. BAL – DeForest Buckner

    …I predict SF will pick Shaq Lawson over Joey Bosa.

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  6. berselius

    Ryno:
    With the Rams trading for the first pick in the draft (to draft a QB), CLE’s pick at No. 2 just got way more valuable.

    If the first six picks go like I think they will…

    1. LAR – Carson Wentz
    2. ? – Jared Goff
    3. SD – Laremy Tunsil
    4. DAL – Jalen Ramsey
    5. JAX – Myles Jack
    6. BAL – DeForest Buckner

    …I predict SF will pick Shaq Lawson over Joey Bosa.

    Do you think Wentz was worth the haul the Rams just gave up to (presumably) get him?

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  7. Author
    myles

    Ryno:
    With the Rams trading for the first pick in the draft (to draft a QB), CLE’s pick at No. 2 just got way more valuable.

    If the first six picks go like I think they will…

    1. LAR – Carson Wentz
    2. ? – Jared Goff
    3. SD – Laremy Tunsil
    4. DAL – Jalen Ramsey
    5. JAX – Myles Jack
    6. BAL – DeForest Buckner

    …I predict SF will pick Shaq Lawson over Joey Bosa.

    Just glad SD gets Tunsil, looks like.

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  8. Ryno

    berselius,

    He has the potential to be, but I wouldn’t have made that trade for him. Goff is a safer bet and more likely to be the better QB, imo.

    Paxton Lynch is a Round 2 guy for me, but I’d rather spend a late 1 on him than take Wentz. Lynch is 2 years younger than Wentz and has just as much upside.

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  9. Ryno

    berselius: Do you think Wentz was worth the haul the Rams just gave up to (presumably) get him?

    I watched most of the top QBs in this draft and I have them:

    1
    Goff
    Wentz

    2
    Vernon Adams
    Paxton Lynch

    4
    Cardale Jones

    5
    Cody Kessler
    Dak Prescott

    7
    Jake Rudock

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  10. cerulean

    andcounting:
    I’m ready to see Javy start playing two innings a game at all 9 positions simultaneously.

    I have a feeling the umpire behind the plate would not allow this.

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  11. berselius

    dmick89:
    fist bump and middle finger icons now up for like/dislike comments. Cerulean’s idea so if you hate it, blame him.

    Don’t tell me what to do

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  12. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    fist bump and middle finger icons now up for like/dislike comments. Cerulean’s idea so if you hate it, blame him.

    Fist bump, middle finger approved. But can’t understand why I can’t dislike my own posts. This place is not schizo-inclusive.

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  13. dmick89

    Rice Cube:
    Can you guys smite this post? I wanna see if it actually turns red.

    Won’t happen. It hides the comment if it gets a lot of down votes. Might try to edit some if the code to add the coloring for low rates comments.

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  14. cerulean

    On the fist bump/fuck you—I actually think the idea of a dislike (basically for just handling trolls) is a poor use of a button. A fuck you shouldn’t be “I dislike this post”—it should be a less personal and more hilarious “Fuck you…”. So when Rice Cube asks to be smited, I can say “Fuck you, don’t tell me what to do”. And everybody wins.

    So maybe instead of “Like or Dislike”, how about “Bump or Bird”, “Fist or Finger”, or something less clever and dirty. (“Fist bump or Fuck you” seems too on the nose.)

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  15. Suburban kid

    Fist bump looks great but the disembodied middle finger emoji looks kinda like a thumbs up (or a pile of poop with thumb on top).

    It needs a longer finger.

    I can’t believe I’m actually posting this feedback.

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  16. cerulean

    Suburban kid,

    A pile of poo might me nice if the fuck you is too, uh, fuck you.

    (Note, at the rate that this word is changing, I wouldn’t be surprised if a polite but familiar greeting had some variation on “fuck you”. I mean, if ”God be with ye” could become “bye”, I see no reason “Good fucks to you” could become “fux” or “fukya”.)

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  17. Suburban kid

    cerulean,

    The fucking Irish in Ireland swear like breathing and use fuck in many different ways. “Fair fucks (to you)” already exists and means “fair play” which means “nice” or “well done”.

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  18. berselius

    cerulean:
    Suburban kid,

    A pile of poo might me nice if the fuck you is too, uh, fuck you.

    (Note, at the rate that this word is changing, I wouldn’t be surprised if a polite but familiar greeting had some variation on “fuck you”. I mean, if ”God be with ye” could become “bye”, I see no reason “Good fucks to you” could become “fux” or “fukya”.)

    Language is strange. You missed the best example, how “Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer” became “thanks”.

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  19. cerulean

    In other news—both PECOTA and FG have the Cubs at 86–65 the rest of the way. That’s 96 wins—even from PECOTA. And the Cubs have still been unlucky by their 2nd and 3rd order Pythag.

    Interestingly, both sites are projecting exactly plus 107 for RS-RA the rest of the way. I will take the over.

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  20. cerulean

    EnricoPallazzo,

    Seeing the performance of Buxton helps me appreciate just how lucky the Cubs have been with their prospects. He seems completely lost—almost as bad as Alcantara looked in his 30-odd PAs last year.

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  21. dmick89

    cerulean:
    In other news—both PECOTA and FG have the Cubs at 86–65 the rest of the way. That’s 96 wins—even from PECOTA. And the Cubs have still been unlucky by their 2nd and 3rd order Pythag.

    Interestingly, both sites are projecting exactly plus 107 for RS-RA the rest of the way. I will take the over.

    My back of the napkin calculation last night (actually, Calcbot on my iPhone) came up with 96-97 wins too.

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  22. berselius

    dmick89: John Lackey’s back of the napkin calculation last night (actually, back of a dumpster with racoon blood) came up with 96-97 wins too.

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  23. berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Fowler
    Heyward
    Zobrist
    Rizzo
    Bryant (LF)
    La Stella (3b)
    Montero
    Russell
    Hammel

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  24. cerulean

    Jaime Garcia had a 97 game score for the Cards against the Brewers—he faced 29 batters: 1H, 1BB, 13K, 9 IP. Devil magic.

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  25. cerulean

    Strangely efficient first for Hammel. BB, pop out, pickoff, single, fly out—14 pitches—and Billy Hamilton (the BB) took 8 of them.

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  26. dmick89

    cerulean:
    Dexter Fowler is [every clichéd baseball saying when a player is doing well except for those things exclusively used to describe the underwhelming performance of white players in a positive manner].

    Fixed

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  27. dmick89

    It’s amazing the Cubs lead the league in runs when you consider how almost half their lineup has underperformed. Soler has been terrible. Russell isn’t hitting too well and neither is Heyward or Bryant (starting to heat up). Imagine this lineup when Bryant and Heyward start hitting and if Baez can even be league average.

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  28. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I think that’s the secret. You have so many guys who can the others when streaks happen. I don’t think it’s any secret why the Cubs were so good in the second half last year—they had that depth.

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  29. cerulean

    Well, they almost chased Iglesias. It’s nice to score some runs before hitting Cincy’s lockdown bullpen. (dying laughing)

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  30. Smokestack Lightning

    Jumbo Diaz in to stop the bleeding.

    I guess I can go to bed now. They’ll still be batting in the morning.

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  31. Smokestack Lightning

    In non-related news, I gleefully chortle at the hubris and stupidity behind the Arizona Diamondbacks’ foolish attempt to turn themselves into contenders overnight. Not quite as gleefully as I chortled at last year’s San Diego Padres and the long-term mess they made of themselves, but close.

    I will savor every single one of their 90 losses.

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