Cubs Offseason Update

In Major League Baseball, Minor Leagues, News And Rumors, Transactions by JonKneeV149 Comments

Moar Awardz

Cubs bring home the hardware

  • Cy Young – Jake Arrieta (169); Zack Greinke (147); Clayton Kershaw (101)
  • Rookie of the Year – Kris Bryant (150, unanimous); Matt Duffy (70); Jung Ho Kang (28)
  • Manager of the Year – Joe Maddon (124); Mike Matheny (87); Terry Collins (49)
  • Esurance MLB Awards

    • Best Starting Pitcher: Jake Arrieta
    • Best Rookie: Kris Bryant
    • Best Breakout Player: Jake Arrieta
    • Best Fan Catch
  • Players Choice Awards – Oustanding Rookie: Kris Bryant

Relief Pitchers, Relief Pitchers, and More Relief Pitchers

The Cubs have added 4 relief pitchers to their 40 man roster through waivers, signings, and a trade. They are:

The Cubs have 14 relief pitchers on the 40 man roster.

Rule 5 Eligible Players

The Cubs protected 4 players from the Rule 5 draft: Jeimer Candelario, Dan Vogelbach, Willson Contreras, and Pierce Johnson. For the full list, visit AZ Phil. I also wrote a piece on some of the players left unprotected here.

Rumors & Signings Around the League

  • The Tigers signed Jordan Zimmerman for 5 years $110 million pending a physical. That's an AAV of $22 million. Zimmerman is considered the 3rd or 4th best starting pitcher available on the Free Agent market. The Tigers will forfeit their 2nd round pick as their first round pick is top 9 protected.
  • Johnny Cueto reportedly turned down an offer from the Arizona Diamondbacks of 6 years $120 million.
  • J.A. Happ signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for 3 years $36 million.
  • Colby Rasmus & Matt Wieters surprisingly accepted a 1 year Qualifying Offer for $15.8 million.
  • The heaviest speculation so far is that the Cubs are in on Alex Gordon and John Lackey, write Peter Gammons. 
  • Paul Sullivan, noted hobbit, says the Cubs are interested in an F7 reunion. Phil Rogers reported that the two met on 11/18/15.
  • There's also been unnamed sources so far linking the Cubs to Jackie Bradley Jr, Denard Span, Tyson Ross, Ben Zobrist, Mike Leake, and Jason Heyward.

Important Dates

  • Winter Meetings: 12/7 through 12/10
  • Rule 5 Draft: 12/10

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Comments

  1. dmick89

    Obvious limitations of KATOH are that it only considers one year of stats and does not consider scouting at all. Still, it’s interesting. Thanks to GW for the heads up the other day.

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  2. Author
    JonKneeV

    KATOH has Almora as a top 10 prospect just looking at statistics from his 2015 campaign. I mean, I can see a few indicators of future performance – premium defense, great contact skills, premium position.

    I’ve voiced my indifference about him before. He’s just “ok” to me. Not someone really worth paying attention to. However, he can be one of those break out prospects if he figures out how to identify and drive a driveable pitch.

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  3. dmick89

    I still think he’s probably a 4th outfielder, but he showed some real improvement this year and there’s reason to be optimistic too. But you’re right, he’s going to have to drive the ball more. Either that or he’s really going to have to be some wizard with the glove. I know the scouts rave about his defense, but I’ll believe it’s really that good when I see it.

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  4. Millertime

    My problem with Almora is that most of the time the arguments for him being a top prospect usually start with “Assuming elite defense”, which I think is a pretty big assumption. I’m fine projecting him at above average defense, but I think defense is so difficult to judge that it’s tough to project a prospect in the minors to play elite defense at the MLB level. Mostly with defense, I prefer to project conservatively, and take a wait and see approach at the MLB level.

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  5. dmick89

    Millertime,

    I also think there’s incentive for teams to inflate a player’s defensive skill when his offensive skills aren’t all that impressive. I think a great example is Javier Baez. Prior to his 2014 debut, he wasn’t known as a great defender. There was a lot of talk about him possibly being moved to a different position and certainly not because of Castro’s defensive abilities. Then, after his horrible half season with the Cubs, he becomes a great defender. Maybe even the best defensive shortstop in the organization, one report said.

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  6. berselius

    dmick89:
    I still think he’s probably a 4th outfielder, but he showed some real improvement this year and there’s reason to be optimistic too. But you’re right, he’s going to have to drive the ball more. Either that or he’s really going to have to be some wizard with the glove. I know the scouts rave about his defense, but I’ll believe it’s really that good when I see it.

    You’re forgetting his +5 makeup WAR (mWAR)

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  7. berselius

    The Cubs, though, likely can pull off only one major acquisition; their payroll figures to be $130 million to $140 million for the foreseeable future, sources say, and their contractual and arbitration commitments for 2016 already project to be in the $120 million range, according to published reports.

    http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/jordan-zimmermann-signs-with-detroit-tigers-hot-stove-rumors-free-agency-cubs-cardinals-112915

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  8. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    If true, there’s no chance they could afford Gordon without backloading the contract. The mid-tier SP market is going to cost them $12-15 million annually. If it’s $130 million payroll, they can’t even afford that without a trade or two.

    I’m not sure I buy that report. Maybe it’s because I don’t want to (reminds me too much of the Tribune ownership limiting payroll), but I don’t see how they competently achieve what they seem to be aiming for without a payroll of at least $150 million next year. Just sign Jason Heyward and backload the contract if that’s the case. Then go collect the 2016 WS Championship Trophy. I’m fine with that.

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  9. GW

    JonKneeV:
    KATOH has Almora as a top 10 prospect just looking at statistics from his 2015 campaign. I mean, I can see a few indicators of future performance – premium defense, great contact skills, premium position.

    I’ve voiced my indifference about him before. He’s just “ok” to me. Not someone really worth paying attention to. However, he can be one of those break out prospects if he figures out how to identify and drive a driveable pitch.

    What’s interesting is that KATOH doesn’t even know he’s a center fielder, let alone how good he is at it.

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  10. GW

    dmick89:
    Obvious limitations of KATOH are that it only considers one year of stats and does not consider scouting at all.

    Also, I don’t think it park/league adjusts. And the way I read it, the training set was strictly pre-2000.

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  11. berselius

    dmick89: Yeah, that it is. When signing JA Happ puts you over budget, you’ve either spent way too much money or you’re the Florida Marlins.

    If recent history is any judge, the Marlins can sign anyone for the quick PR boost. Then they’ll just dump the salaries 18 months or so later for some A-ball relievers. Maybe Thoyer is just trying to work out a trade sending the rights to Hayden Simpson in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton.

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  12. cerulean

    Ryno,

    The prospect of recognizing a diamond-in-the-rough or at least under-appreciated talent *first* reminds me of the survey where some 90% or 95% of Swedes believe that they are better drivers than the average Swede. Such overconfidence is a pretty decent predictor of being hired for one’s expertise.

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  13. Millertime

    There’s also a condition where when you’re labled an expert in your field, or think of yourself as an expert in your field, you’re much more likely to be dogmatic with your arguements. So says some expert on NPR, and he sure seemed to think he was right.

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  14. Ryno

    cerulean,

    If the Patriots knew what they had in Tom Brady, he wouldn’t have lasted until the 6th. Same with DAL and Romo. Same with SF and Montana. Hell, same with SEA and Russell Wilson.

    If a team views a player as a franchise QB, they take them in the first round. And there’s no way in hell they last past the second round.

    Even if a team has a reputation for developing a certain type of player, they know the guys they’re taking late are developmental,.

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  15. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    Yeah, I wonder if Robothal’s report represents the low end, what the Cubs would prefer to spend, and not the limit. Levine has the Cubs pegged at around 30MM, which seems more in line with how the FO has been talking and the rumors we’ve been hearing.

    I guess I’m just conditioned to never be surprised when the Cubs cry poor.

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  16. Myles

    GW:
    Basically he’s young, tall, and doesn’t strikeout, it seems.
    I was wondering why Brock Osweiler was so beloved by KATOH. He’s young, tall, and literally never strikes out.

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  17. cerulean

    berselius,

    Probability has it that the greatest possible baseball player didn’t just go undrafted, he never even played the game. Therefore, teams should only draft from the indigenous peoples of the Amazon.

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  18. cerulean

    Smokestack Lightning,

    I think it’s strategically optimal to say you have less to spend than you do. We fans sometimes forget that it is a market—while there is a symbiosis between FOs and FAs, if either gives too much in favor of one over the other—too cheap or too expensive—it hurts both sides in aggregate. However, the individual FAs are incentivized to maximize their earnings even at the expense of their cohorts who have yet to get paid, so the onus of restraint falls on the FOs to keep the money train going.

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  19. dmick89

    dmick89,

    I remember the Cubs sending groups of scouts to work with players in Sweden or Finland or something like that. Some place nobody plays baseball. Ever. Of all the things he did, that’s probably what irritated me the most. The talent pool is pretty well established at this point. Scout those areas until you’re actually good at baseball.

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  20. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    Yeah, I don’t see how the Cubs can accomplish what they want to with a payroll of $130 million. Also, it would be a slap in the face to the fans to limit the payroll to just barely above what it was last year. I’ll be surprised if it’s under $140 million on Opening Day and probably closer to $150 million.

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  21. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I am pretty sure that my prior comment was sarcastic. We should obviously invest in the Aboriginals. Those guys are tough as nails. Tough as nails wins ballgames. Prove me wrong.

    But seriously, I am all for spreading the game around the globe, but that should be separate from traditional development in cooperation with MLB proper.

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  22. dmick89

    cerulean,

    Yeah, my complaint at the time was that they weren’t really signing the top DR or Venezuelan players, but were expanding their scouting to lands that never even placed baseball. It was fucking weird. They thought South Korea was the new Dominican.

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  23. berselius

    cerulean: I am pretty sure that my prior comment was sarcastic. We should obviously invest in the Aboriginals. Those guys are tough as nails. Tough as nails wins ballgames. Prove me wrong.

    The Cubs need to invest in a time machine to take the league by storm with an all Neanderthal squadron.

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  24. cerulean

    berselius: The Cubs need to invest in a time machine to take the league by storm with an all Neanderthal squadron.

    I hear there are robust australopithecines that dined chiefly on plants that would really appeal to the vegetarian hipster youth. Baseball is dying, so bringing back extinct hominids to cultivate interest in the game would be a wise strategy.

    While they are bothering to resurrect extinct species, dinosaur mascots would surely be better than what most clubs have now.

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  25. Smokestack Lightning

    Apparently the Barves are enamored with Soler. Willing to part with Julio Teheran or Shelby Miller.

    I says “eh” to this. Would rather give Samardzija or Lackey a reasonable rowboat-ful of small bills and hang onto George.

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  26. cerulean

    It would be amusing to have Shark too. Then if McKinney gets the call, the Cubs could have three sets of trade partners: Shark, Russell; Hammel, McKinney; Heyward, Miller.

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  27. Jerome Walton

    Smokestack Lightning:
    Apparently the Barves are enamored with Soler. Willing to part with Julio Teheran or Shelby Miller.

    I says “eh” to this. Would rather give Samardzija or Lackey a reasonable rowboat-ful of small bills and hang onto George.

    +1 . Shelby Miller’s peripherals were more like a 4.00 ERA pitcher (Steamer 2016 projection is 4.09). This can be purchased with junk change ($50,000,000) on the open market. There is an argument to be made to move Soler, so the outfield defense isn’t completely atrocious with Schwarber and Soler out there but I wouldn’t make this deal.

    Also: Dwight Smith Jr was not protected for the Rule V draft…

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  28. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    Absolutely. Soler for pitching makes sense, but Shelby Miller (and Teheran) is not that pitching. At least not for him.

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  29. berselius

    Looks like it’s 7/213. It’s still hard wrapping my head around any player being worth $30m a year, but here we are. Can’t wait for the economics of cable TV to crater as soon as the Cubs to deal is up.

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  30. cerulean

    dmick89,

    Now I really want Heyward with Soler traded for young pitching.

    For the record, I think Soler for Miller straight up is pretty equitable, with the longer and better (though not necessarily arb-free contract) contract of Soler offset by the more established Miller (with the downside of fewer years to FA).I like that Miller has already reinvented himself and is only 25. That’s young enough to buy out his arb years plus two and he could still get that big age 29 payday. 4 WAR every year is not an unlikely scenario. I like Soler, but he has to rely on offense to be a productive player, and I doubt that he has the consistency or the health to be a perennial 4 WAR player.

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  31. Smokestack Lightning

    And it appears Greinke is set to choose between the the Giants and Dodgers shortly.

    All very anticlimactic compared to the drama around Lester last year. But then, that market was not this one.

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  32. Smokestack Lightning

    cerulean,

    I agree on the Heyward part, but I’d rather go for more in any potential Soler deal, maybe include other pieces to potentially land an arm with ace-y upside.

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  33. cerulean

    Carrasco would be interesting, though he is 3 years older and has a history of injury (Tommy John) and ineffectiveness, though the latter not since his return from TJ. His contract is great though.

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  34. berselius

    cerulean: I think a solid #3/good chance at #2 who has gone on streaks of brilliance is a good haul.

    If that’s what we’re looking for, all Samardzija would cost is money 😀

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  35. berselius

    cerulean,

    True, but I’ve pretty much given up on that happening. Though given how good this FO is at keeping things from the media any tea leaf reading is pretty much moot.

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  36. berselius

    dmick89,

    Signing anyone worthwhile costs a draft pick this year. They’ll get one back for Fowler. And it’s not like they’re picking near the top of the first round this year.

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  37. umbra

    Wasn’t there a search for Indian pitchers on? A nation of over a billion people that’s pretty ok at throwing stuff in cricket, surely there’s a few people between the ages of 18-35 who can physically throw a baseball 100 MPH?

    I thought they tried this a few years ago and the answer was “I guess not”.

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  38. dmick89

    berselius,

    I’m not complaining. It’s a factor though. If I’m giving up a draft pick on someone that’s going to cost 5/85, I’d much prefer to give it up on someone like Zimmerman.

    I’m guessing at this point the Cubs trade for a starter or two and I think Heyward is more likely than I used to. Still unlikely though.

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  39. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I’m guessing at this point the Cubs trade for a starter or two and I think Heyward is more likely than I used to.

    If the Cubs pull that off I’ll dance a jig.

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  40. Mucker

    I know Jose Fernandez was talked about on here a couple of days ago but what’s a realistic package for him? Soler, Baez, Almora? Or is that just a starting point?

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  41. berselius

    Mucker:
    I know Jose Fernandez was talked about on here a couple of days ago but what’s a realistic package for him?Soler, Baez, Almora?Or is that just a starting point?

    If Loria is involved in the negotiations, a dump truck full of money could probably get it done.

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  42. Millertime

    Mucker,

    I’d think Fernandez would start with Schwarber. I’m sure if the Marlins move an impact MLB player, they’d like at least one impact prospect back.

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  43. dmick89

    Millertime,

    You’re probably right. It would also clean the system out. Schwarber, Baez, Almora/McKinney, Johnson and probably a couple others. The Cubs would probably get back a couple pitchers, more likely relief pitchers also, but it’s not going to happen.

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  44. Suburban kid

    cerulean:
    Answered myself. Alfredo Edmead in 1974 (on-field collision).

    That was in the minors. In the majors, only Ray Chapman in 1920 (hit by pitch).

    I could have sworn a minor league coach was killed by a foul ball within the last 8 years or so. Although you might not have been including coaches.

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  45. dmick89

    Since we’re talking about deaths, Ty Cobb said he killed a man, but probably did not. Marty Bergen killed his wife and kids with an axe and then killed himself. He played only a few seasons in the big leagues and somehow managed to get one vote for the Hall of Fame.

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  46. dmick89

    Apparently Jeff Samardzija has an offer for $100 million. Whoever signs him for that amount is going to look like an idiot compared to the Zimmerman contract. I hope it’s not the Cubs.

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  47. dmick89

    dmick89: Whoever signs him for that amount is going to look like an idiot compared to the Zimmerman contract.

    Actually, they’re going to look like idiots even if you don’t compare it to the Zimmerman contract. That’s just a terrible contract if it’s true.

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  48. cerulean

    dmick89: Actually, they’re going to look like idiots even if you don’t compare it to the Zimmerman contract. That’s just a terrible contract if it’s true.

    Maybe it’s for 15 years like hockey teams used to do. That’d be pretty “creative”. (dying laughing on the inside)

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  49. cerulean

    I put that down as a joke, but I do wonder why teams don’t give out huge nominal contracts with for more years than players might play. Imagine Heyward signs for 15 years $240M. That’s $16M a year that by the end of the term would be about $12M a year present day value (at just 2% inflation, even less is likely). Buy insurance against a catastrophic injury for a few million a year and avoid the huge downside risk and possibly some luxury tax—which makes me think that this might not be allowed. But at the same time, 15 years for Heyward isn’t completely crazy.

    Also, albatrosses are quite remarkable avians.

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  50. Author
    JonKneeV

    Another day, another mass shooting. No gun reform needed. We just need to destroy ISIS and everything will be ok.

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  51. Millertime

    cerulean,

    I think the Nationals did something like that for Max Scherzer. He’s on a 7 year contract, but then they’re also deferring some of the money and paying him from 2022-2028.

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  52. uncle dave

    Millertime,

    Does anyone know how deferred payments are handled under the luxury tax rules? If those payments aren’t included in the current luxury tax, you’d think that teams would trip over themselves to try and push deferrals on players (even moreso than they already would).

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  53. Myles

    If you really wanted to get creative, instead of giving Price 7/$217, they could have given him a perpetuity with an annual payment of $4 million. That’s roughly the same value.

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  54. cerulean

    berselius,

    Actually, they still lose a draft pick over someone else signing him, so to me, that’s a wash.

    I am more concerned about them getting him for the $180M they offered Price—a significant discount to his value. Like when they extended Pujols. A quick calculation in my head says that they paid $100M for 64WAR, which at a conservative $5M per marginal win means a surplus value of $220M. He was the biggest reason they were so good, and this windfall gave them the flexibility to absorb just about any injury and ineffectiveness.

    I saw a link where somebody projected Heyward to be worth $300M over 10 years. Lets hope there is no Pujols redux for the Cards.

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  55. dmick89

    The Cardinals will end up signing Jason Heyward for 4 years and $60 million with a club option for 3 years and $12 million. Then they’ll sign Zack Greinke for 3 years and $45 million.

    They’ll both get injured, along with others, and they’ll still win 98 games.

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  56. dmick89

    This can’t possibly be the reason stopping the Cubs from signing Heyward.

    Within that same piece, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are “busy” looking for a center fielder but are faced with relatively limited options. Dexter Fowler is a possibility for the Cubs but is currently exploring the open market. Signing Jason Heyward to play center field is an option, but the team would then need to address its rotation in a cost-effective manner by trading a young bat such as Jorge Soler or Javier Baez. If Soler ends up being the price to bolster the rotation, then the outfield would, of course, remain an issue.

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  57. Author
    JonKneeV

    Kenta Maeda has been posted. That can only mean good things for the Cubs, whether they’re interested in him or not.

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  58. Millertime

    I get a little worried when I think of the number of teams that have needs, and seem to have money to spend, and how conservative the Cubs FO has been over the past few seasons. The Giants and Dodgers both seem willing to spend big on pitcher, I never know with teams like Detroit, Texas, or the Yankees, and the Cardinals have to have money to throw around if they choose. If Mike Leake and Denard Span are your offseason moves, is that really too exciting? I guess there’s always the trade route.

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  59. Millertime

    Oh. You’re all still here. I kinda thought I might have a Home Alone thing going on and I’d be able to order pizza and learn life lessons about the scary blog that lives across the street.

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  60. dmick89

    berselius,

    I wonder why. At the rate F7 looks to get, Zimmerman’s contract is much better. I doubt the Cubs end up getting F7 if the price is as high as being speculated.

    Lackey is probably the best they’ll do as far as a starter goes at this point.

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  61. Smokestack Lightning

    Lackey is a heaping pile of meh, but if it’s the first step of a Lackey-Heyward-trade for awesome sauce young pitcher than I’m happy with it.

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  62. cerulean

    Now that John Lackey can curse Matheny as God intended, I have two questions:

    Are they out of the Heyward sweepstakes? Because that would suck.

    Will they use surplus MLB-ready talent to bolster the rotation? That would leave Hammel or Hendricks the odd man out.

    While I was reading that fangraphs post on Carrasco, I was reminded that the Cubs have two players that may be better than average at their positions but are blocked: Vogelbach (as DH) and Villanueva. Combine those two with Soler or Baez and a few years away guy like Dewees, would that be near enough?

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  63. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Random commenter on MLBTR has my favorite write-up of the signing:

    Rando89:
    What A TERRIBLE DEAL!!!! LACKEY IS A BUM!!! The cubs already have a former red Sox pitcher who’s not worth the money!!! Now to sign a 37yr old pitcher with TOO MANY INNINGS on his arm is CRAZY & the team loses a draft pic!!! The cubs needed a TOP OF THE ROTATION STARTER, not an “innings eater”!!! Who cares if you pitch 180 innings, if you SUCK for the majority of them!!!

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  64. dmick89

    Given the cost of starting pitching in this market, I’m not sure trading for one is something we’ll see happen at this point. At leas not a top of the rotation starter. The Cubs had issues giving up so much talent to acquire Tyson Ross at the all-star break. That’s probably the best they can hope for and his cost may have gone up. Maybe down the road a month or two, but I don’t see it happening any time soon.

    Now that I say this, in about 8 minutes we’ll learn the Cubs acquired Madison Bumgarner for cash considerations.

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  65. Millertime

    This deal helps the Cubs get older in the rotation, which, if I understand baseball, is a really good thing. The key to any rebuild is to get older, and since most players only age 1 year at a time, that means signing old players, or trading for them if you can.

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  66. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Hendry was targeting the wrong Nordic country. He should have been scouting the Dutch, as their baseball leagues have much better names:

    Honkbal Hoofdklasse – majors
    Honkbal Overgangsklasse – high-minors
    Honkbal Rookie League – sorry, but my Dutch isn’t good enough to translate this one

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  67. cerulean

    General question: Does a prospect that gets a burnt-diner-awful cup of coffee and then goes down to the minors and similarly sucks ever recover to be a decent MLB player?

    Specific question: Is Alcantara done?

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  68. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    cerulean: Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,

    Your Dutch is so bad that you called them Nordic.

    (dying laughing) oh yeah, guess I was thinking of Denmark instead of the Netherlands. There’s only two things I hate in this world. People who are intolerant of other people’s cultures and the Dutch.

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