Cubs sign Jason Heyward

In News And Rumors, Transactions by dmick89131 Comments

It appears as though the Cubs have signed Jason Heyward

And from Heyman.

Wow. That's so awesome. More to come. 

Though the signing is not yet confirmed by the Cubs, the contract is reported to be only 8 years and $184 million. I thought for sure he'd get over $200 million and $250 million wouldn't have surprised me. It does reportedly include an opt-out clause after the 3rd year and possibly another opt-out at a later date. Opt-outs have kind of become the norm for large contracts so that's just how it goes. The Cubs have Heyward for his prime and that's what matters. If they want or need to renegotiate in a few years, they can do that with even more money on the way with a new tv contract. 

UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal reported that he can opt out after the 3rd or 4th year if he meets certain number of plate appearances. 

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  1. Suburban kid

    Reports they’re working on a trade for SP. People figure Soler is gone but doesn’t Heyward make it more likely that Baez/Almora are redundant?

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  2. Urk

    I’d think that They’re more likely to trade Soler than Baez, but honestly I’d rather see them put Heyward in Center and keep both of them.

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  3. Myles

    As it stands, the lineup is

    Zobrist 2B
    Schwarber LF
    Bryant 3B
    Rizzo 1B
    Soler RF
    Heyward CF
    Montero C
    Arrieta P
    Russell SS

    Arrieta
    Lester
    Lackey
    Hendricks/Hammel/Warren/Wood/Johnson

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  4. Myles

    Urk:
    I’d think that They’re more likely to trade Soler than Baez, but honestly I’d rather see them put Heyward in Center and keep both of them.

    Me too, but if they get rid of one, I want to jettison Baez.

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  5. Author
    dmick89

    JonKneeV:
    SERVER OVERLOAD

    Yes, I was afraid that would happen if something big like this happened. We’re cheap bastards since there aren’t any ads so we’ll get this resolved. It probably won’t be for a week or two though. Actually, I think I’ll aim for Christmas Eve to do it since no one will be around.

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  6. Smokestack Lightning

    Rice Cube:
    Gordo suggests contract is 8 years, less than $185MM.How?!

    Best guess is an opt-out after 5 plate appearances or something.

    Man. Theo Epstein, ladies and gentlemen.

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  7. Myles

    So, 8/$184 is $23 AAV on the nose. That’s what I’m predicting, with an opt-out after 3 years. Also heard it’s front AND back-loaded, so that will be interesting.

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  8. cerulean

    Another great thing about Thoyer’s aggressiveness this offseason—the Cubs lose two picks this year—28 and 70-ish (or can they lose their compensation pick for Fowler?)—whatever it is, it’s better to sign two players in one offseason that cost a pick and none in the next than one in two consecutive years.

    Any lingering doubt about the Cubs being all-in are now officially obliterated.

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  9. Smokestack Lightning

    (dying laughing) at Cardinals blogs. Redbird Rants and VivaEl can’t bring themselves to put Cubs in their headlines.

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  10. berselius

    Myles: Also heard it’s front AND back-loaded, so that will be interesting.

    Probably a signing bonus + usual contract structure, I’m guessing.

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  11. Smokestack Lightning

    JonKneeV,

    Sounds like after year 3 for one of them. Depending on AAV, I’m okay with that. Still getting his best years. After that, he wants to walk for more, buh-bye.

    (dying laughing), maybe Albert Almora will finally be ready.

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  12. Author
    dmick89

    Can you guys check to see if you can post images now using the html?

    [img src=”http://www.domain.com/image.jpg”]

    Just replace [ and ] with < and > and use your own url for the image of course.

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  13. Smokestack Lightning

    Morosi reports Cubs have had dialogue with Dads for Ross and Tribe for Carrasco. Would imagine they’ll take their time on those fronts.

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  14. Smokestack Lightning

    Really starting to like the idea of the 3rd year opt out. Heyward goes… and Theo can bring in Harper.

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  15. Author
    dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    Plus, the opt-out costs the player money and there’s little risk for the team. I think Tangotiger and some others tried to calculate the cost of the opt-out. I can’t remember what it was, but it’s not insignificant. I would also imagine the timing of the opt-out costs. It’s going to cost Heyward more to have it after 3 years than 5 years, for example.

    Bottom line is that the Cubs get Heyward for his prime years.

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  16. srbutch5

    I’m 100% OK with him opting out after either year. Get 3 or 4 of his prime years for just money. Sign him or someone else if/when he does opt out. That’ll be right around the time the Cubs start to think about signing some of the young guys longer term.

    All in all, I love it.

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  17. Smokestack Lightning

    One of the better Cards fan posts re: Heyward:

    This is like when Don Corleone moved on the five families…
    Theo made the call and hammers start dropping all over the place. Mo had his pants around his ankles banging some whore in hotel off lindbergh blvd and he was the first to die.

    Certified Repellent

    by guayzimi on Dec 11, 2015 | 2:14 PM up reply

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  18. Smokestack Lightning

    So, for the same Price as Price, Cubs got Heyward and Lackey. I’d call that a better use of 216MM, especially if you look at it via Rogers’ +/- scale.

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  19. cerulean

    Smokestack Lightning:
    srbutch5,

    Me too. This spins right and the Cubs are nowhere near the inevitable Heyward decline. All hail opt-outs.

    The only real risk is an early injury that he never recovers from. ACL or head trauma or the like. Basically, what those StL asshats that are a small but vocal percentage of their fanbase are calling for.

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  20. cerulean

    Smokestack Lightning:
    So, for the same Price as Price, Cubs got Heyward and Lackey. I’d call that a better use of 216MM, especially if you look at it via Rogers’ +/- scale.

    Why would you say especially? It’s the only scale that matters when looking at free agency. Though, Heyward + Lackey does have the poor-hitting Price beat in R+RBIs by a mile.

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  21. uncle dave

    cerulean: The only real risk is an early injury that he never recovers from. ACL or head trauma or the like. Basically, what those StL asshats that are a small but vocal percentage of their fanbase are calling for.

    Right, but if the opt-out only vests when he hits a target number of PAs that concern goes away. I’m not at all a fan of opt-outs in general (for the Cubs, at least) as the team shoulders risk and is limited in getting upside, but if there are counterbalances to that risk it’s a different story.

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  22. Author
    dmick89

    The opt-out won’t be a mutual thing. If Heyward gets hurt or underperforms, he’s staying put for sure. I hope that doesn’t happen. I hope we’re talking in 3 years about how much more money he can get via free agency. That’s what’s best for the Cubs. The Cubs have a few years to plan for that possibility.

    I don’t think anyone would complain if the Cubs had signed Heyward to a 3-year, $80 million contract, or whatever it works out to. The cost of doing business with someone like Heyward is that you add on those extra years as insurance, which were going to be there anyway without an opt-out. The only difference is that it’s something the player asks for and pays for in return. How much? I have no clue, but I don’t see any risk for the Cubs here.

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  23. cerulean

    Serious question: Has anyone taken a comprehensive look at solidly built lineups and their effect on individual performance—not talking R+RBIs, but straight up wOBA? I have an inkling that there is a significant positive feedback loop to a lineup without glaring holes.

    Part of me thinks that there is no way Heyward, Bryant, and Rizzo exceed their 2015 production. But being all on the same team just entering their primes, watch out. 20 WAR might be the over/under.

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  24. sharpchicity

    I’m with FG when they say that opt outs have basically no positive “value” for a team. there are two scenarios…
    1) the player is worth more than his contract yet he opts out and the team loses on potential excess value
    2) the player is worth less than his contract and forces the team to pay more than he is worth

    That being said, this is hopefully priced in to the contract and the team should get a discount in AAV to accommodate those opt outs. When people say “we will avoid his eventual downturn,” we’ll also miss the opportunity to pay for those years where he is still good enough to out-earn his salary just prior to his descent.

    In the scenario where he opts out and we say “great, we can sign someone else!” he’s opting out because he’s worth more than we’d be paying him and therefore we’re losing out on excess value and will then end up paying more for those same wins on the FA market.

    Unless it’s a cash strapped club where you couldn’t afford to pay face value without opt-out clauses, it’s tough to love these things from a fan’s perspective.

    Thaaaaat being said, even if he ends up leaving, 3 years of Heyward > 0 years of Heyward.

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  25. cerulean

    dmick89,

    It would be a pretty complicated multivariate equation that might require the gravity of far-flung galaxies as an input, but I imagine something could be approximated. After all, my line of thinking was that men-on-base performance and corresponding pitcher fatigue/distraction/alteration of mechanics. I guess what I would look for is how much wOBA does a player have to add to raise his teammates wOBA by a per mille.

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  26. berselius

    cerulean: t would be a pretty complicated multivariate equation that might require the gravity of far-flung galaxies as an input, but I imagine something could be approximated.

    This is why Monte Carlo methods were invented.

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  27. Smokestack Lightning

    sharpchicity: When people say “we will avoid his eventual downturn,” we’ll also miss the opportunity to pay for those years where he is still good enough to out-earn his salary just prior to his descent.

    Perhaps, and under normal circumstances I’d agree, but I think Heyward’s is a unique situation that more easily justifies the opt-out(s).

    But then, I start getting bearish on Heyward once he hits year 4 of this contract…

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  28. berselius

    I still think that Heyman was the one who actually broke the signing news, not Gordo, who might just have been saying that the Cubs were ahead of the Nats and Cardinals but says nothing about LAA. It was a perfectly timed tweet.

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  29. berselius

    I also think the whole “cost of pitching via trade” perception going around has more to do with Dave Stewart being a moron than how much pitchers are actually valued.

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  30. Author
    dmick89

    sharpchicity: I’m with FG when they say that opt outs have basically no positive “value” for a team. there are two scenarios…
    1) the player is worth more than his contract yet he opts out and the team loses on potential excess value
    2) the player is worth less than his contract and forces the team to pay more than he is worth

    Everything has a price. No-trade clauses cost the player some money. Opt-out clauses do too. Club options cost the team money and so on. Heyward with no opt-outs is probably paid somewhere close to $200 million or more.

    I don’t know whether the team wins or the player wins in these deals, but I do know that we can’t analyze the current contract as if it would be the same if there were no opt-outs. We’re not sure what the contract would be with no opt-outs.

    Also, star players want opt-out clauses these days. They want no-trade clauses. If you’re going to go after star players, and I definitely want the Cubs to be active there, then that’s just the cost of doing business with star athletes.

    Opt outs, no trade clauses and backloaded contracts don’t bother me.

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  31. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: Everything has a price. No-trade clauses cost the player some money. Opt-out clauses do too. Club options cost the team money and so on. Heyward with no opt-outs is probably paid somewhere close to $200 million or more.

    I don’t know whether the team wins or the player wins in these deals, but I do know that we can’t analyze the current contract as if it would be the same if there were no opt-outs. We’re not sure what the contract would be with no opt-outs.

    Also, star players want opt-out clauses these days. They want no-trade clauses. If you’re going to go after star players, and I definitely want the Cubs to be active there, then that’s just the cost of doing business with star athletes.

    Opt outs, no trade clauses and backloaded contracts don’t bother me.

    This.

    dmick89:
    I just hope Heyward doesn’t have a knee injury in the first year of his contract like Soriano did.

    This too.

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  32. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    I feel like opt-outs are unambiguously bad for teams, but that the vesting aspect of this one (if true) mitigates a lot of the risk. Either way, the deal will most likely be worth it. (I’m thinking it’s worth it already just because it’s pissed off so many Cardinals fans.)

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  33. cerulean

    GW,

    Brilliant.

    dmick89,

    The really big difference about this Heyward deal vs that Soriano deal—five years. Imagine the Cubs signing Soriano in his age 26 season instead of age 31. Sure knee injuries can and do happen to 20-something athletes (Derrick Rose, for instance, though not often in baseball), but the body’s resilience to come back from injury at age 26 vs age 31 is pretty huge. After 25, it’s all downhill.

    For the record, Soriano’s bWAR from ages 26–33:
    26: 4.8
    27: 5.0
    28: 2.0
    29: 1.6
    30: 6.1
    31: 4.3
    32: 2.0
    33: –1.6

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  34. Smokestack Lightning

    Getting pretty disappointed there’s been no corresponding move for Kershaw or Trout since we landed Heyward.

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  35. cerulean

    dmick89,

    Income taxes. Not all taxes. Chicago has higher sales tax on top of a modest state tax and will nickel and dime you to death if you try to do anything like live there and run a business. The rest of Illinois is more of a red state with all the midwestern conservatism that implies.

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  36. Author
    dmick89

    @JasonHeyward have fun never winning a championship with the @Cubs and watching the @Cardinals win the World Series multiple times #trader
    — Joey Pizzimenti (@JP3_SWAGG) December 11, 2015

    (dying laughing). Trader.

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  37. Suburban kid

    I think I’ve made it pretty clear in past posts that I’d prefer the Cubs pass on Heyward, but I know many of you would like to have him in blue pinstripes.

    Alvin, aware that he is seen as a fanboy apologist, tragically fails at choosing when to disagree with management. Every damn time.

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  38. andcounting

    Really good. I don’t think the BFIB reaction would’ve been nearly as strong if Heyward had gone anywhere other than to the Cubs. It was probably doubled by the Cubs’ victory over the Cardinals in the playoffs, which I constantly have to remind myself actually happened. Aside from the rivalry, he was there one year. It shouldn’t be that big of a deal.

    dmick89:
    Good read. http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/12/11/9912536/cardinals-cubs-jason-heyward-loyalty

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