If I were a betting man, I'd say this is a one year deal for around $4.5 million, with an option year at $6 or so. That seems reasonable to me for a starter flier, and probably about as much as he could reasonably expect coming off of a decidedly average year. Any less, and I'll be happy. Any more, and I'd be disappointed, but not extremely so.
I took a look at his CAIRO projections and found he's projected to be the worst starter that's currently on the roster. This didn't even include an adjustment to his projections, which currently project him as a swing man. As a starter only, his projections would be well below that of Scott Feldman.
That said, I like Villanueva better than Feldman.
It's now been learned that the contract is a 2-year deal for $10 million. Even if the win value is $6-7 million, that's an overpay, but not by much. I'd have preferred it be a 1-year contract with an option so I'm a bit disappointed that the Cubs have given a swing man a 2-year contract, but it's not my money.
The Cubs don't appear to be done with their rotation either. The Cubs have targeted Edwin Jackson and appear to be the frontrunner in the bidding at this point. It's reported that the Cubs latest ofer is 4-year and $52 million.
Edwin Jackson signed only a 1-year contract last offseason for $11 million and $2 million of that was deferred. He's making out quite nicely compared to last offseason, but he's a better pitcher than most realize. I'll look more at this potential contract if or when it is completed. I also plan to take a look at the Cubs rotation later today.