Cubs clinch a spot in the postseason with next win or Giants loss

In News And Rumors by dmick89167 Comments

Thanks the Padres come from behind win last night in a game started by Madison Bumgarner, the Cubs are nearing what was inevitable a month ago: a spot in the postseason. It's been so long that we've known this was coming that the Cubs even moved their rotation around so to ensure that Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta would each face the Pirates in both of the series they had against them (one of them starting today). The hope was they could still catch the Pirates and have that game on October 7th at Wrigley Field.

That's still possible, but 3.5 back (3 in the loss column) and it's probably unlikely at this point. The Cubs are in a position where they almost have to sweep Pittsburgh for that to happen. Even if it does, the Cubs have a home game against the Royals on Monday and then head out for their final 6 games of the season on the road. Pittsburgh heads home for 6, but 3 of them are against St. Louis so there's that I guess. 

I've been one all season long who has felt the Cubs were better than the Pirates and that they'd eventually catch them. Even back when the seaosn started when I still pegged this team for 75-78 wins, I felt the Cubs were better than the Pirates. It's still possible they catch them, but it's not likely. I still think they're the better team, but they're younger and more inconsistent. That inconsistency should improve as they get older. 

The Cubs are very close to clinching a spot in the playoffs and I'm certainly excited for that, but it's entirely possible they're done after 1 game. I like the way MLB has this set up currently. It puts more emphasis on winning your division, which I think is a good thing, but I wonder if there are too many divisions. Does MLB even need divisions at this point? Could the Wild Card teams play a brief 3 game series? I don't know the answers to these questions, but I think time off is a big concern for teams. They don't want too much of it.

So I like the current setup as much as possible given the three divisions in each league, and am super excited to see what the Cubs can do in the postseason. I'm also hesistant to go all crazy about one game. I'm going to be disappointed if they lose that game to Pittsburgh. One game just doesn't feel like you reached the postseason. 

But in the scheme of things, this is year one. This is the first year the Cubs were supposed to be somewhat competitive. They've been a lot more than that and they should be a lot better in the future. 

A win today and the Cubs clinch the fucking playoffs. That's something to be excited about even if it could be only one game. 

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  1. Author
    dmick89

    Suburban kid:
    JonKneeV,

    Cubs got to Cole early in their last matchup (although Pirates pulled it out). Love seeing the super patient 1-5, buncha LH plus KB.

    Weren’t 2 or 3 of the runs scored against him either unearned or given up after he’d left? I thought he pitched a great game against the Cubs last time out.

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  2. berselius

    My favorite hypothetical scenario is the Pirates tying the Cardinals for the division lead, followed by the Cardinals losing the two one-off games.

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  3. Smokestack Lightning

    berselius:
    My favorite hypothetical scenario is the Pirates tying the Cardinals for the division lead, followed by the Cardinals losing the two one-off games.

    I approve this sequence of events and wish it godspeed.

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  4. GBtS

    Even if it’s one game, it’s one game where the Cubs are included in an exclusive, invite-only club of 10 teams that can possibly win the World Series. That’s all I care about.

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  5. Suburban kid

    dmick89,

    I can’t read a fucking boxscore. They only got 1 run in the 1st which I think was unearned. They did tie it up in the 6th with 3 more runs (against Cole) but Pirates went ahead in the 8th.

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  6. GBtS

    berselius:
    My favorite hypothetical scenario is the Pirates tying the Cardinals for the division lead, followed by the Cardinals losing the two one-off games.

    Preferably BOTH at Busch

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  7. Author
    dmick89

    I’d rather face the Cardinals in a 5-game series. I get that it might be a bit easier to beat the Cardinals in a one game series than the Pirates, but I want the Cubs and Cardinals in a playoff series just as I always wanted to see the Yankees and Red Sox play a series together. Also, I think the Cubs will walk all over the Cardinals in that series if it happens so I can’t wait for it.

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  8. Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago

    I tend to agree the Cubs have a slight advantage over whoever in a 1 game playoff with Arrieta, and I also think they would beat the Cards in a 5 game series. I might be being too optimistic though. I do think the Cubs have what it takes beyond just talent to make a deep playoff run. At the same time, I won’t be too crushed if they lose the WC game, given they’re going to win 90+ games in a year I thought they’d win 84.

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  9. Josh

    Yes, the Hope Monster will feast well this post season. My favorite part will be if the Cubs lose and the Cardinals win even one series, and then hearing how the Cubs choke again from my Astros and Cardinals friends.

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  10. myles

    EnricoPallazzo:
    if the cubs lose today, do you just cede the WC home-filed to the pirates and rest arrietta for the rest of the regular season? or does that fuck up his rhythm?

    I think so. I wouldn’t hold Arrieta out at all, but I’d have a much shorter leash. 5 inning starts or so, couple times through the order, just to keep the rhythm there.

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  11. berselius

    Josh:
    Yes, the Hope Monster will feast well this post season. My favorite part will be if the Cubs lose and the Cardinals win even one series, and then hearing how the Cubs choke again from my Astros and Cardinals friends.

    I feel kind of bad about the glee I feel at the possibility of the Astros blowing their playoff berth

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  12. Author
    dmick89

    berselius: I feel kind of bad about the glee I feel at the possibility of the Astros blowing their playoff berth

    I never liked the Astros when they were in the NL Central, but now I just don’t care. It’s hard enough keeping up with the NL West teams.

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  13. Author
    dmick89

    myles: I think so. I wouldn’t hold Arrieta out at all, but I’d have a much shorter leash. 5 inning starts or so, couple times through the order, just to keep the rhythm there.

    Yeah, I wouldn’t make many changes if they lost today. Assuming they clinch soon, like you, I might not allow any more 120 pitch outings from Arrieta. I’d probably limit him to 100 pitches per start. I wouldn’t want to do too much to take him out of his rhythm though.

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  14. berselius

    dmick89,

    Brett and Sahadev talked about this on their podcast this week – I wouldn’t want to mess with his rhythm either. Arrieta’s one of the most focused/intense guys on the team, I don’t think they should take him out of his comfort zone.

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  15. aisle424

    The Cubs get the home game in the Wild Card if they tie the Pirates because they’ll have the better head-to-head record (currently 10-6 vs. them). The Cubs could conceivably lose one game in this series and realistically still tie them in the remaining 7 games.

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  16. Author
    dmick89

    aisle424:
    The Cubs get the home game in the Wild Card if they tie the Pirates because they’ll have the better head-to-head record (currently 10-6 vs. them). The Cubs could conceivably lose one game in this series and realistically still tie them in the remaining 7 games.

    They could, but with the Pirates playing at home and the Cubs on the road, I’d feel a lot better about those odds if the Cubs sweep them. I think the odds of the Cubs hosting the WC game are pretty slim as it is right now, but if they don’t sweep the Pirates, I don’t see it happening. I guess it depends also on what the Cardinals do this weekend. If they get swept and the Cubs take 2 of 3, that Pirates/Cards series becomes important to both teams.

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  17. Josh

    berselius: I feel kind of bad about the glee I feel at the possibility of the Astros blowing their playoff berth

    I don’t hate the stros per se, but my friend can be kind of annoying. Also, LA is the only team I almost got to see play live this year, so go Angels.

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  18. Suburban kid

    berselius:
    EnricoPallazzo,

    from what I remember it’s usually a few hours later

    That was certainly the case several years ago, but haven’t they sped up the process more recently? I don’t know for sure because I almost never watch games I miss on the same day.

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  19. Author
    dmick89

    I’m not sure if it’s still the case, but I think on Apple TV you can access them right after the game ends. Maybe that was last year that I tried that though. I’m not sure.

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  20. Josh

    What’s the verdict on Lester? Fangraphs likes him a ton this year, but B-ref is a little more reserved. The outings I’ve watched weren’t so great.

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  21. Author
    dmick89

    Josh:
    What’s the verdict on Lester? Fangraphs likes him a ton this year, but B-ref is a little more reserved. The outings I’ve watched weren’t so great.

    I haven’t seen all his starts either. Some of them he’s looked really good and others he’s looked less than impressive. I’m interested to see what the next couple of years look like. I’m hoping he turns it around a bit next year. Otherwise, it could be a very long contract.

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  22. aisle424

    dmick89,

    Yeah. Obviously a sweep is ideal, but my point is the hope of catching them isn’t dead if they lose a game. So I don’t expect them to mess with the rotation or anything they are doing.

    The Pirates being 4 back of the Cardinals makes this hard. The Cardinals don’t have a ton to play for anymore. They’ve basically wrapped up home field for the NL side of the playoffs and it might actually help them to lose to the Pirates to keep the Cubs in 3rd.

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  23. Josh

    Twice this season I’ve had to do a double-take when I saw Delino Deshields mentioned. No way that guy is still playing. Are we not saying Junior anymore!? Terrible.

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  24. EnricoPallazzo

    GW:
    Josh,
    Well, they traded one of the best two or three players in the league for Brett Lawrie and Kendall Graveman, so… that’s not great.

    yeah but the a’s also got franklin barreto. so…you know…franklin barreto.

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  25. Josh

    Jake for Cy Young or no? Numbers wise, it’s pretty close for the top three, really. It’ll probably come down to post-seanson success.

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  26. Josh

    berselius:
    Josh,

    I think they vote before the playoffs.

    Well if they go with traditional stats you have to give it to Jake, right? I mean, if you end the season right now he’s got a sub-2.00 ERA and leads in wins.

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  27. Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago

    Eh, I don;t know the difference between fangraphs and b-ref’s pitching measures, but my take has been that Lester’s been really good this year as far as things he can control. Got hit hard a couple times, and obviously the running game is a problem, but overall, he’s been really good.

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  28. Suburban kid

    If you’re sitting on Al’s bench, I get it, scroll Twitter or map your escape route, because you can’t see the game too good out there anyway and hopefully. But if you’re in the $250 seats right on top of the plate, you shouldn’t even be turning to talk to your neighbors. Look straight ahead for the full nine.

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  29. Author
    dmick89

    Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago:
    Eh, I don;t know the difference between fangraphs and b-ref’s pitching measures, but my take has been that Lester’s been really good this year as far as things he can control.Got hit hard a couple times, and obviously the running game is a problem, but overall, he’s been really good.

    His K-BB% was really good awhile ago and I assume it still is relative to the rest of the league. He’s probably been a bit unlucky this year, but I’m not sure.

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  30. JonKneeV

    dmick89,

    I feel like if he started holding runners earlier (rather than just starting in September) he would have stranded more runners and he ERA would be 25 points lower.

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  31. uncle dave

    Suburban kid,

    Nah, there’s a cat who shows up to a LOT of games in full orange Marlins regalia, always sitting right behind the plate. Don’t know why, but the guy annoys me. He’s the modern equivalent of the John 3:16 guy.

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  32. Rizzo the Rat

    Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago:
    Eh, I don;t know the difference between fangraphs and b-ref’s pitching measures, but my take has been that Lester’s been really good this year as far as things he can control.Got hit hard a couple times, and obviously the running game is a problem, but overall, he’s been really good.

    Fangraphs looks at FIP (homers, walks, strikeouts) while bref looks at runs allowed.

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  33. Perkins

    dmick89: His K-BB% was really good awhile ago and I assume it still is relative to the rest of the league. He’s probably been a bit unlucky this year, but I’m not sure.

    Not that W-L is a big deal, but Lester has gotten between 0 and 3 runs of support in a little over a third of his starts. That’s going to amplify the perceived struggles.

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  34. Perkins

    Josh:
    Perkins,

    Yeah, even ignoring W-L it seemed like he’d been up and down. More consistent than the record no doubt reflects, as often happens with pitchers.

    Yeah, I think the fact that the Cubs have lost a good amount of Lester’s games gives the impression that he has been inconsistent or not as good as advertised. That’s not really on him for the most part, though. By fWAR he has been more or less in line with his career norms.

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  35. Rizzo the Rat

    One reason for Lester’s poor record is that he almost always had Ross behind the plate. Also his own poor hitting and fielding have hit him.

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  36. Rizzo the Rat

    How can anyone rip on the Samardzija trade? That was the A’s being desperate to win and giving up their most valuable asset.

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  37. Josh

    Rizzo the Rat,

    No, that was fine, it meant they were going to have a rough year down the road. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall in terms of what the Astros were doing and knew it would be awhile before he could compete again.

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  38. Author
    dmick89

    JonKneeV:
    This team is incapable of getting a run home from 3rd with less than two outs.

    I’m sure they’ve scored at least 1 run in that circumstance. Being serious, that’s what happens when you’ve got a team that strikes out 4000 times.

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  39. Author
    dmick89

    I’m not complaining. I didn’t expect one run in the 9th. I’m happy they made a game out of it late when teams in the past would have ended up losing 12-1.

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  40. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Suburban kid: But if you’re in the $250 seats right on top of the plate, you shouldn’t even be turning to talk to your neighbors. Look straight ahead for the full nine.

    The last time I got to sit in those seats I was on my phone for 3 straight innings live blogging (to my 3 friends) the conversation between Rickets and George Will that was happening directly to my left. I probably looked like an asshole on TV, but it was worth it.

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  41. Rice Cube

    Suburban kid:
    There’s no way he makes that play at the plate JD.

    What I’d like to see is a physics person or a math person calculate whether there COULD have been a play based on the running speed of 3B baserunner bearing down on home, distance between Castro & plate at time of first capture of baseball, and Castro’s maximum throwing velocity. I also don’t think he had a play and he took the sure thing at first base.

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  42. Author
    dmick89

    It think what JD was saying that it was worth a shot given the importance of that run. I disagree with him too. I think there was a near 0% chance he’d have thrown him out, but JD also didn’t think there was a high probability of getting the out. He was wondering that it may have been worth that small chance. It’s a reasonable thing to wonder and it’s one of the reasons why I like JD so much. Even though it was a low probability play, maybe there is a time in which it is the optimal decision.

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  43. berselius

    Rice Cube: What I’d like to see is a physics person or a math person calculate whether there COULD have been a play based on the running speed of 3B baserunner bearing down on home, distance between Castro & plate at time of first capture of baseball, and Castro’s maximum throwing velocity.I also don’t think he had a play and he took the sure thing at first base.

    If this game were taking place on Mars, I’d probably have the tools on hand to figure this out.

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  44. WaLi

    Rice Cube,

    So based on this picture and google maps distance calculator, Castro was around 70-80 ft away from home plate and Mercer was about 30-40 feet away from home plate when Castro had the ball in his hand about to throw it.

    Assuming Castro throws 85 mph, the ball will get to Ross between 0.56 s (70 ft) to 0.64 s (80 ft).

    Mercer is already at full speed. Assuming he runs about 15 mph, he will get to home plate (without sliding which will slow him down) between 1.8 s (@ 40 ft away) to 1.3 s (@30 ft away).

    So if it was a force play, I’d say Castro has a good shot of getting him. However, it wasn’t a force play. Castro’s throw has to be accurate and then Ross has to catch it and tag the runner in less than 1s (between 0.7 s and 1.2s based on min/max distances). I’d say he has >0% chance to make the play, but less than 5% chance.

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