Cubs compared to their projections

Back in April I compared the Cubs players to their projections and intended to do it once a month. Instead, you get once every two months. Or if we averae the 2+ months of the season you are getting it once a month. So there.

Name PA wRC Proj wRC Diff
Reed Johnson 69 15.3 6.3 9.0
Jeff Baker 92 14.6 10.0 4.6
Kosuke Fukudome 213 30.8 26.9 3.9
Alfonso Soriano 185 25.5 22.7 2.7
Darwin Barney 265 24.3 22.2 2.1
Starlin Castro 283 33.6 32.3 1.2
Koyie Hill 81 6.4 5.3 1.1
Marlon Byrd 182 22.5 21.9 0.6
Luis Montanez 28 2.7 2.2 0.6
Blake DeWitt 100 10.2 10.6 -0.4
Tony Campana 45 2.6 3.5 -0.9
DJ LeMahieu 12 -0.5 1.0 -1.5
Brad Snyder 9 -0.8 1.0 -1.8
Welington Castillo 13 -0.7 1.2 -1.9
Aramis Ramirez 246 26.8 33.2 -6.4
Carlos Pena 237 27.5 34.1 -6.6
Geovany Soto 166 15.9 24.0 -8.1
Tyler Colvin 104 -2.0 11.9 -13.9

These stats are updated through Monday’s games. Holy crap, Reed Johnson. It’s not even close when it comes to who has most outperformed their projection. In nearly 3 times fewer plate appearances, Reed Johnson has produced as many runs as Geovany Soto. Starlin Castro leads the team in wRC with 33.6 and Fukudome is the only other with 30 or more. Tyle Colvin has been worse than Reed Johnson has been good. The Cubs expected a lot of offense from Ramirez, Pena and Soto. Instead, they’ve produced 21.2 runs fewer than we expected them to through the number of plate appearances they have. Darwin Barney has been better than we though of course. He’s going to be out only 2 weeks after landing on the DL because of a small explosion inside his knee. I’m skeptical of the return date if it is a Grade 3 tear/sprain/strain. It can’t be that bad.

Name IP RA FIP Proj-RA Proj-FIP Diff-RA Diff-FIP
Matt Garza 65.2 4.93 2.30 4.34 4.27 -0.59 1.97
Sean Marshall 30.1 2.37 2.23 3.85 3.51 1.48 1.28
Jeff Samardzija 36.2 4.66 4.08 5.79 5.33 1.13 1.25
Doug Davis 29 7.14 3.51 4.81 4.42 -2.33 0.91
Marcos Mateo 15.2 5.74 4.17 5.46 4.86 -0.28 0.69
Carlos Marmol 30 3.00 2.59 3.25 3.07 0.25 0.48
John Grabow 27.2 5.53 4.40 4.71 4.53 -0.82 0.13
Carlos Zambrano 90 4.50 3.96 4.18 3.89 -0.32 -0.07
Justin Berg 12 3.75 5.04 5.06 4.89 1.31 -0.15
Ryan Dempster 87 5.59 4.15 4.17 4.00 -1.42 -0.15
Kerry Wood 24 3.75 3.92 4.03 3.73 0.28 -0.19
Andrew Cashner 5.1 1.69 5.21 4.73 4.50 3.04 -0.71
James Russell 36.2 6.14 5.74 5.46 4.92 -0.68 -0.82
Casey Coleman 37 7.78 5.74 4.89 4.45 -2.89 -1.29
Rodrigo Lopez 10.1 6.10 6.35 5.59 4.75 -0.51 -1.60
Randy Wells 18 6.50 5.74 4.48 4.10 -2.02 -1.64
Jeff Stevens 7 5.14 7.10 5.49 4.57 0.35 -2.53
Scott Maine 7 10.29 11.10 5.15 4.71 -5.14 -6.39

Matt Garza has been ridiculously good this season when it comes to the stats he fully controls (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch and home runs). He’s been almost 2 full runs per 9 better than projected (using FIP of course). The players at the bottom of the list have performed well below expectations, but none of them have many innings. Dempster’s FIP is basically as we expected, but his RA is -1.4 runs worse per 9. A lot of that is luck, which was true with Garza early in the season.

You can look at the information and do with what you want. It’s pretty simple: how the players have performed compared to what we expected. Sample sizes for most of the players is still a big issue and almost all of the pitchers it’s an even bigger issue.


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