Cubs compared to their projections

I wrote this on Friday morning so it’s updated through Thursday’s games. I’m too lazy to update it to include Friday’s blowout loss.

This is something I’ll try to update once a month just so we can see where players are at compared to their projections. It’s something SG has done on RLYW a few times over the last couple years and I really like the idea so I’m going to borrow it. Mike Leake would steal it.

I’m using the projected wOBA and actual wOBA to calculate each players wRC. That’s based on the number of plate appearances of course. It’s the run value the player has contributed to his team.

Name PA wOBA wRC Proj-wOBA Proj wRC Diff
Starlin Castro 83 .405 15.1 .328 9.4 5.7
Aramis Ramirez 77 .374 12.1 .352 8.7 3.4
Alfonso Soriano 70 .375 11.1 .338 7.9 3.2
KosukeFukudome 41 .408 7.6 .342 4.6 3.0
Jeff Baker 31 .381 5.1 .321 3.5 1.6
Reed Johnson 16 .427 3.2 .302 1.8 1.4
Darwin Barney 61 .323 7.2 .293 6.9 0.3
Geovany Soto 65 .307 6.8 .363 7.4 -0.6
Blake DeWitt 14 .269 1.0 .319 1.6 -0.6
Koyie Hill 10 .229 .4 .272 1.1 -0.7
Marlon Byrd 77 .274 6.1 .335 8.7 -2.6
Carlos Pena 60 .261 4.1 .362 6.8 -2.7
Tyler Colvin 48 .234 2.3 .328 5.4 -3.1

There are sample size issues here to consider before you start saying how much a player sucks. Marlon Byrd is not going ot post a .274 wOBA this season. Get real. Colvin and Pena won’t hit as poorly as they have either. On the other hand, Castro, Fukudome, Johnson and Baker won’t hit nearly as well as they have. Overall, the offense has produced 8 more runs than expected so far.

Name IP RA FIP Proj-RA Proj-FIP Diff-RA Diff-FIP
Randy Wells 6 1.50 5.18 4.48 4.10 2.98 -1.08
Andrew Cashner 5.1 1.76 5.26 4.73 4.5 2.96 -0.76
Sean Marshall 9 1.00 1.35 3.85 3.51 2.85 2.16
Jeff Stevens 3.2 2.81 3.56 5.49 4.57 2.68 1.01
Jeff Samardzija 11 4.09 5.1 5.79 5.33 1.70 0.23
Kerry Wood 6.1 2.95 4.75 4.03 3.73 1.08 -1.02
Casey Coleman 10.2 4.41 6.2 4.89 4.45 0.48 -1.75
Carlos Marmol 9.2 2.93 2.29 3.25 3.07 0.32 0.78
Carlos Zambrano 25.2 4.29 3.91 4.18 3.89 -0.10 -0.02
Matt Garza 24.2 4.83 1.23 4.34 4.27 -0.50 3.04
Marcos Mateo 7.1 6.34 1.51 5.46 4.86 -0.88 3.35
Ryan Dempster 25 7.20 4.61 4.17 4 -3.03 -0.61
James Russell 9 9.00 6.57 5.46 4.92 -3.54 -1.65
John Grabow 6.2 10.16 8.11 4.71 4.53 -5.45 -3.58

Too small a sample to even talk about. Just wanted to post it so you could see it for yourself.


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