Dariel Alvarez Stats, Aledmis Diaz Stats, and Endless Cuban Comps

Aledmis-Diaz

Aledmis Diaz

Updates: If interested in more defector profiles and comparisons, here are Miguel Alfredo GonzalezDalier HinojosaOdrisamer Despaigne, Alexander Guerrero, and Misael Siverio.

In case you are looking for some info to browse through while waiting for Matt Garza to leave town.

I was initially planning to write up Misael Siverio, a Cuban lefty who disappeared into a cornfield in Des Moines Tuesday night, but a few position players have made the news recently, so I’ll run through them first.

Noticias de Cuba

Dariel Alvarez Stats

The Baltimore Sun is reporting that outfielder Dariel Alvarez has agreed to a deal with the Baltimore Orioles for $800k. Alvarez is 25 years old, 6’2″, 190 lbs, and defected in August of last year. Despite the fact that the Cubs aren’t signing him, I wanted to take a look at his numbers, given that his price was significantly less than some others (Puig, Soler, Cespedes, etc…) have received.

Team Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS R RBI SH SF HBP BB SO GIDP
2007 Cam 19 128 125 32 3 0 0 0 1 7 12 0 0 3 11
2008 Cam 20 117 108 29 3 4 1 1 0 16 15 3 0 6 11
2009 Cam 21 306 271 73 7 2 5 5 8 41 31 1 8 26 26
2010 Cam 22 325 299 82 13 1 11 5 10 43 41 4 1 8 13 27 13
2011 Cam 23 376 344 125 22 2 20 2 2 65 81 0 5 9 18 20 4
2012 Cam 24 319 283 77 10 0 8 2 2 31 36 1 3 6 26 18 13
Totals 1571 1430 418 58 9 45 15 23 203 216 92 113
Age PA AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% dt AVG dt OBP dt SLG
2007 19 128 0.256 0.273 0.280 0.024 2 9 0.222 0.234 0.246
2008 20 117 0.269 0.299 0.398 0.130 5 9 0.225 0.244 0.333
2009 21 306 0.269 0.350 0.365 0.096 8 8 0.227 0.280 0.308
2010 22 325 0.274 0.321 0.435 0.161 4.0 8.3 0.234 0.266 0.367
2011 23 376 0.363 0.404 0.613 0.250 4.8 5.3 0.310 0.337 0.518
2012 24 319 0.272 0.343 0.392 0.120 8.2 5.6
Totals 1571 0.292 0.335 0.440 0.148 6 7

Not too shabby for $800k, right? The nice thing about looking at position players coming over from Cuba, though, is that there is a relatively extensive track record of Major League performance. With pitchers, it’s basically Aroldis Chapman, Jose Contreras, and the Hernandez brothers. With position players on the other hand, there are quite a few names we can look at in attempting to get a performance baseline.

Here are how some major leaguers compared to Alvarez in la Serie Nacional at similar ages. I tried for three years worth of data from each player, as close as I could get to their age 22-24 seasons, which were Alvarez’s three most recent.

Technical Note: I’m getting all of the data from pre-2010 seasons from Clay Davenport, who doesn’t bother to list things like plate appearances, sacrifices, and HBP. I wanted to include BB%, and K%, so I estimated PA in a half-assed manner. I won’t go into detail, but the bottom line is that the BB% and K% numbers I’m showing are likely a smidge higher than the reality.

Yrs Ages PA HR AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K%
Dariel Alvarez 2010-12 22-24 1020 39 0.307 0.347 0.488 0.181 5.6 6.4
Yoenis Cespedes 2008-10 22-24 1167 72 0.317 0.386 0.589 0.272 10 12
Henry Urrutia 2008-10 21-23 999 29 0.358 0.433 0.537 0.179 10 11
Leonys Martin 2008-10 20-22 1040 25 0.345 0.474 0.517 0.172 17 14
Kendrys Morales 2002-04 19-21 781 32 0.350 0.434 0.576 0.226 11 12
Dayan Viciedo 2006-08 17-19 925 32 0.296 0.390 0.479 0.184 11 13
Yasiel Puig 2009,’11 19,21 639 24 0.316 0.412 0.539 0.223 11 15

That helps to put the $800k in perspective. The flipside of all the mediocre pitching numbers that have shown up for prominent defectors is that the offensive numbers are really good. While Alvarez doesn’t strike out much, he falls well short of the numbers put up by some of the other defectors.

Aledmis Diaz Stats

Aledmis Diaz is a shortstop who also defected last summer. The Cubs have been connectedHe is listed at 6′”1″, 185 pounds, and is said to have a strong arm. The media seems to have decided that his name is actually “Aledmys,” but the version with an “i” seems to show up in all the Cuban sources, so I’ll stick with that for the time being.

Diaz has been in the news recently for lying about his age. He claimed to be 23 to exempt himself from international signing restrictions, but MLB decided that he isn’t, and has barred him from signing until February. It’s not clear how old he actually is, but his birthday has been previously listed as August 1, 1990. If that’s true, then he should be free and clear to sign without restriction in February. If it’s actually sometime in 1991, as has been listed elsewhere, then there remains a possibility that he will have to wait, or take whatever offer a club will make in the confines of their budget restrictions. I’m assuming the August 1990 birthdate is correct.

Team Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS R RBI SH SF HBP BB SO GIDP
2008 VC 17 35 32 9 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 3 11
2009 VC 18 282 276 94 20 2 5 0 5 51 39 6 11
2010 VC 19 294 262 74 8 2 3 2 5 41 32 4 1 7 20 28 15
2010* VC 19 67 58 17 4 0 2 0 1 6 11 1 0 4 4 10 2
2011 VC 20 358 282 83 16 1 7 1 2 44 45 3 1 14 58 23 10
2011* VC 20 31 25 7 3 0 0 1 0 6 2 0 0 2 4 3 1
2012 VC 21 313 270 85 10 3 12 11 2 48 49 1 1 5 36 25 13
2012* VC 21 33 28 5 1 0 1 0 2 4 1 1 0 0 4 3 1
Totals 1413 1233 374 62 8 30 15 18 209 179 135 114
Age PA AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% dt AVG dt OBP dt SLG
2008 17 35 0.281 0.313 0.281 0.000 9 31 0.242 0.242 0.242
2009 18 282 0.341 0.401 0.482 0.141 2 4 0.285 0.329 0.410
2010 19 294 0.282 0.348 0.363 0.080 6.8 9.5 0.243 0.289 0.309
2010* 19 67 0.293 0.379 0.466 0.172 6.0 14.9
2011 20 358 0.294 0.437 0.433 0.138 16.2 6.4 0.260 0.367 0.375
2011* 20 31 0.280 0.419 0.400 0.120 12.9 9.7
2012 21 313 0.315 0.404 0.507 0.193 11.5 8.0
2012* 21 33 0.179 0.281 0.321 0.143 12.1 9.1
Totals 0.303 0.372 0.440 0.136 10 8
*Playoffs

Overall, I think there is a lot to like here. Here’s a look out how his age 19-21 seasons compare to some other Cuban shortstops who have played in the US, with varying degrees of success.

Yrs Ages PA HR AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K%
Aledmis Diaz 2010-12 19-21 1096 25 0.293 0.395 0.432 0.139 11.5 8.4
Alexei Ramirez 2001-03 19-21 728 17 0.343 0.398 0.511 0.168 8 12
Yuni Betancourt 2002-04 19-21 958 19 0.291 0.333 0.442 0.151 6 9
Adeiny Hechavarria 2007-09 19-20 433 4 0.249 0.312 0.353 0.104 8 16
Yunel Escobar 2002-04 19-21 354 5 0.284 0.404 0.381 0.097 15 16

Diaz’s approach rates out as the best of the bunch. He struck out less than any of them and walked more than all but Escobar*. He showed less power than Ramirez did at that age, but put up a nearly identical OBP. Ramirez and Escobar have had pretty good careers, so the favorable comparison here speaks well of Diaz. If he can play good defense up the middle, the Cubs would be wise to make the effort, at least.

*I’m almost positive that these are Escobar’s stats, though Clay didn’t make the connection; the listing is ”Yunier Escobar” in his database. The timeframe is right, though, as is the Cuban team (Industriales). In addition, here is a Cuban news report referring to Yunel as “Yunier” after his eye black incident last year. Even so, it’s a bit strange that he managed so few PA’s, even on a strong Industriales team. Maybe no one liked him there, either.

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