How much is Aramis Ramirez worth?

Ever since Aramis Ramirez remembered how to hit baseballs there has been increasing talk here and elsewhere about how his trade value suddenly jumped. Him hitting baseballs well again certainly did not hurt his value and did even increase it slightly, but we’re still talking two months for a guy who will make $4.9 million.

His current ZiPS rest of season wOBA is .357 and if we’re generous and give him 200 plate appearances and -2 runs combined on defense and baserunning, he’s worth only 1 WAR. The value of the win this season is $4.5 million so he’s worth less than he’s being paid. However, he’s likely to be a Type B free agent and I suppose he has a slim chance of becoming a Type A. The extra draft pick is worth roughly $2.5 million he has a surplus trade value of $2.1 million. 

Looking at this piece from a couple years ago, that makes the expected return for Ramirez a Grace C pitcher, 22 or younger. In other words. The pitcher the Cubs acquired yesterday for Fukudome, Carlton Smith, is a Grade C prospect though he’s oder than 22. That gives you an idea of what you can expect in return for Ramirez. If the Cubs sent $3.1 million along in the trade they could get a Grade B hitting prospect. 

Someone wondered earlier if the Cubs could get a top 100 prospect in return. A top 100 hitting prospect (#76-100) is worth $12.5 million. The same ranked pitchers are worth $9.8 million. It’s unlikely the Cubs are going to come away with much to look forward to, but perhaps someone with a high ceiling. 

Berselius mentioned that he may have more value because he’s one of the best hitters available and that may be true. At the same time, he may have less value seeing as his OPS is barely better than average since the beginning of the 2010 season. Factor in his defense and baserunning and he’s been a below average player since the beginning of last year. Since 2010, he has a .316 OBP. 

My guess is that Ramirez would bring a Grade C prospect in return, but I’d also expect it to be a guy bordering on Grade B and someone with a high ceiling. 


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