Mapping out the Rotation

Shawn pointed out in the comments that given the number of off-days, the Cubs can limit the 5th starter somewhat. But given that they’re spaced 7 days apart there will still be a few starts. Here’s how it maps out

  • 4/6 Ryan Dempster
  • OFF DAY
  • 4/8 Carlos Zambrano
  • 4/9 Matt Garza
  • 4/10 Casey Coleman
  • 4/11 Demp
  • 4/12 5TH STARTER
  • 4/13 Z
  • OFF DAY
  • 4/15 Garza
  • 4/16 Coleman
  • 4/17 Demp
  • 4/18 Z
  • 4/19 5TH STARTER
  • 4/20 Garza
  • OFF DAY
  • 4/22 Demp
  • 4/23 Z
  • 4/24 Coleman
  • 4/25 Garza
  • 4/26 5TH STARTER
  • 4/27 Demp
  • 4/28 Z
  • 4/29 Coleman
  • 4/30 Garza
  • 5/1 5TH STARTER
  • 5/2 Demp
  • 5/3 Z
  • 5/4 Coleman
  • OFF DAY

So 4 starts for whoever gets the gig.

mb21: Since we’re talking about the rest of the month, it seems a good time to post the expected win-loss record for the Cubs over the first month of the season. We’ve used the RLYW projections blowout to get the projected winning percetages for the Cubs and the teams they play. Once we have that, we can use Bill James log5 method to calculate expected wins (adjusting for home field advantage). The projections blowout had the Cubs at 80 wins. With the loss of Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells, let’s say they lost 2 wins. It’s highly unlikely they lost that many, but let’s work with that one anyway. So for the first 5 games they had an expected total wins of 80 and the rest of the month it is 78. Here’s how the month works out (h/t to RLYW).

Date Team Ex.PcT Cubs xW xL txW txL tW tL
4/1 Pirates 0.433 0.493 0.61 0.39 0.6 0.4 0 1
4/2 Pirates 0.433 0.493 0.61 0.39 1.2 0.8 1 1
4/3 Pirates 0.433 0.493 0.61 0.39 1.8 1.2 1 2
4/4 Dbacks 0.451 0.493 0.59 0.41 2.4 1.6 2 2
4/5 Dbacks 0.451 0.493 0.59 0.41 3.0 2.0 3 2
4/6 Dbacks 0.451 0.481 0.58 0.42 3.6 2.4
4/8 at Brewers 0.512 0.481 0.42 0.58 4.0 3.0
4/9 at Brewers 0.512 0.481 0.42 0.58 4.4 3.6
4/10 at Brewers 0.512 0.481 0.42 0.58 4.8 4.2
4/11 at Astros 0.407 0.481 0.53 0.47 5.4 4.6
4/12 at Astros 0.407 0.481 0.53 0.47 5.9 5.1
4/13 at Astros 0.407 0.481 0.53 0.47 6.4 5.6
4/15 at Rockies 0.512 0.481 0.42 0.58 6.8 6.2
4/16 at Rockies 0.512 0.481 0.42 0.58 7.3 6.7
4/17 at Rockies 0.512 0.481 0.42 0.58 7.7 7.3
4/18 Padres 0.488 0.481 0.54 0.46 8.2 7.8
4/19 Padres 0.488 0.481 0.54 0.46 8.8 8.2
4/20 Padres 0.488 0.481 0.54 0.46 9.3 8.7
4/22 Dodgers 0.516 0.481 0.51 0.49 9.8 9.2
4/23 Dodgers 0.516 0.481 0.51 0.49 10.3 9.7
4/24 Dodgers 0.516 0.481 0.51 0.49 10.8 10.2
4/25 Rockies 0.512 0.481 0.51 0.49 11.4 10.6
4/26 Rockies 0.512 0.481 0.51 0.49 11.9 11.1
4/27 Rockies 0.512 0.481 0.51 0.49 12.4 11.6
4/28 at Dbacks 0.451 0.481 0.49 0.51 12.9 12.1
4/29 at Dbacks 0.451 0.481 0.49 0.51 13.4 12.6
4/30 at Dbacks 0.451 0.481 0.49 0.51 13.8 13.2

Through 5 games, the Cubs were expected to win 3 games and lose 2. They’re record prior to today was exactly that. They’d played no better or no worse than expected against the lesser competition they’ve faced so far. The end of the month record is expected to be 14-13. It would be nice if the Cubs could instead be 3 to 4 wins over expectations. They’ll need to make up some ground somewhere and against the early schedule is when it will be easiest. Today isn’t going well so far. They trail 5-2 in the top of the 6th so it’s likely the Cubs end the day worse than we expected when the season started.


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