Playoff play-in chaos scenarios

I'm a little annoyed that while the overall playoff field is set, only one "series" is set in stone right now (the Braves-Cardinals wild card play in game). Don't these teams realize that writers have series previews to write? Anyway here's how things stand right now, followed by what can happen tonight

National League:

3rd seed: San Francisco Giants

Wild Card 1: Atlanta Braves

Wild Card 2: St. Louis Cardinals

The Wild Card game will be played in Atlanta, since they have the better record.

The Reds and Nationals are currently tied for the best record in the NL. The Nats host the Phillies this afternoon, while the Reds play the Cardinals tonight. Here's what can happen.

  • If Washington beats the Phillies tonight, or if both teams lose, the Nats are the #1 seed. They have a 5-2 head to head record with CIN. In that case the Nats play the winner of the StL/Atl game, and the Reds have home field advantage in a series with the Giants.
  • If the Reds win and Nats lose, the Reds get the #1 seed. The Nats play the Giants and the Reds get StL/ATL

Amercian League:

3rd seed: Detroit Tigers

That's all we know. This is where the tiebreaking fun occurs.

If Texas beats Oakland tonight:

The Rangers win the AL West, and Oakland gets a wild card slot

  • If the Yankees beat Boston tonight: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #1 seed, and Baltimore gets the other wild card. If the Orioles lose to the Rays tonight, the WC game would be played in Oakland, as they have a 5-4 record vs the Orioles this season. If the Orioles beat the Rays, they would host the A's. The Yankees would play the winner of this game, and the Rangers would host the Tigers for the NLDS.
  • If the Yankees and Orioles both lose: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #1 seed, based on their head-to-head record of 4-3 with the Rangers. The Orioles play the WC game in Oakland, and the Yankees play the winner of this game while the Rangers host the Tigers
  • If the Yankees lose and Orioles win The Yankees and Orioles tie for the AL East division lead, and play a one-game playoff to determine who has to play in the wild card game. This game would be played in Baltimore, because they have a better intradivisional record than the Yankees and the teams are 9-9 against each other this year. The loser of this game would host Oakland in the wild card playoff game. If the Yankees win the division, they would get the #1 seed based on their record vs Texas. If the Orioles win the division, Texas would get the #1 seed based on their 5-2 record vs the O's

If Oakland beats Texas tonight:

The A's win the AL West, and the Rangers get a wild card slot

  • If the Yankees beat Boston tonight: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #1 seed, and Baltimore gets the other wild card. If the Orioles lose to the Rays, the WC game would be played in Texas, as they have a 5-2 record vs the Orioles this season. If the Orioles beat the Rays, the game would be played in Baltimore. The Yankees would play the winner of this game, and the A's would host the Tigers for the NLDS.
  • If the Yankees and Orioles both lose: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #2 seed. The A's get the #1 seed because they have a 5-5 record vs the Yankees and a better intradivisional record (~57% vs ~56%). The Orioles play the WC game in Texas, and the A's play the winner of this game while the Yankees host the Tigers
  • If the Yankees lose and Orioles win The Yankees and Orioles tie for the AL East division lead, and play a one-game playoff to determine who has to play in the wild card game. This game would be played in Baltimore, because they have a better intradivisional record than the Yankees and the teams are 9-9 against each other this year. The loser of this game would host Texas in the wild card playoff game. If the Yankees win the division, they would get the #2 seed based on their record vs Oakland and their intradivisional records. If the Orioles win the division, Oakland would still get the #1 seed based on their 5-4 record vs the O's.

I'm rooting for a Yankees lose/O's win scenario, just because we'd get bonus baseball.

berselius

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