I figured I’d start a thread and update it if some relevant rumors start flying around about the Cubs. In the meantime, I’d like to quote tangotiger.
But, never, ever, ever, talk about things like he’ll be a net negative in the last two years of his (or anyone’s) deal. That’s a “duh” statement. That’s because Reyes, like all people, are human, and their bodies will break down.
I’ve tried to go over this many times when Cubs fans have talked about backloaded deals. You absolutely cannot look at the end of the contract without including the value provided above what he’s being paid early in the contract. Every player on the free agent market, if he signs a market value contract, will be in that situation. Let’s take a hypothetical 3 WAR player in 2012 and he signs for 4 years.
2012: 3 WAR
2013: 2.5 WAR
2014: 2.0 WAR
2015: 1.5 WAR
Starting at $5 million per win like Tango does for the the Jose Reyes contract and increasing by 5% each year we a 4-year, $47.8 million contract (we’ll go with $48 million). Here’s what it will look it each year:
Year: WAR, $WAR, Paid, Gain
2012: 3, $15, $12, $3
2013: 2.5, $13.1, $12, $1.1
2014: 2, $11, $12, -$1
2015: 1.5, $8.7, $12, -$3.3
The first two years you get more than you pay for while the last two years you’re paying for more than you are getting. The reason there is a $.2 million difference is because we increased the $47.8 million to $48 to keep things simple.
Every player who signs a market value contract will be the same.
If the Cubs really are in on Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have yet to increase their offer. The Marlins will talk with him in the next couple days. More updates to come.
UPDATE 1: The Cubs did meet with Dan Lazano (agent for Pujols) today according to Rosenthal.
UPDATE 2: There is apparently some interest in Alfonso Soriano according to Heyman.
UPDATE 3: Theo Epstein appeared on MLB Network so here’s a summary of what he said.
Pujols’ agent also represents Rodrigo Lopez.
Scratch and claw and try to make 2012 Cubs better (doesn’t sound like a big signing to me).
Bunch of crap about sitting with Kevin Millar. Need the forest gif about right now.
Lots of listening so far, bringing in a bunch of guys, identifying areas where they can get better and build a system for sustained success.
Need to become top notch scouting department because of less room for error with new CBA.
Get young talent coming up each year and then combine with the resources the team has.
Asking for patience because it’s going to take awhile until they get to point where they can have sustained success. Gonna do it “the right way.”
Seems very confident in Dale Sveum.
Stupid question about what Theo now knows about the Cubs culture that he didn’t before.
He does add during that answer that the plan to contend may take awhile longer than a lot of fans think.
Millar asks whether or not he’s worth a Theo or Dempster in compensation with the Red Sox. Dumbass question.
More updates coming later
UPDATE 4: Rosenthal says the Cubs have talked with CJ Wilson’s agent.