NL Central Offseason Whip-Around: Cincinnati Reds

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius41 Comments

I've been my usual lazy self and not paid much attention to the goings on around the league this offseason. At least MLB has obliged by keeping things pretty quiet.

Next we'll take a look at the Reds, who have Joey Votto and a quietly decent bullpen and not much else.

2017 Record: 68-94
2018 Projected Record: 72-90
Top projected hitter (ZiPS): Joey Votto, 4.9
Top projected pitcher: Luis Castillo (no, not that one), 2.9

Transactions of Note

  • Signed David Hernandez
  • Signed Jared Hughes
  • Signed Oliver Perez + Ben Revere to minor league deals, but released them in Spring Training
  • Departing Free Agents: Zack Cozart, Drew Storen, Scott Feldman, Bronson Arroyo's ghost of a career

That pretty much looks like the transaction list of a team that knows it has no shot at competing this season.

Projected regulars

  • C Tucker Barnhart
  • 1B Joey Votto
  • 2B Scooter Gennett
  • SS Jose Peraza
  • 3B Eugenio Suarez
  • LF Adam Duvall
  • CF Billy Hamilton
  • RF Scott Schebler
  • SP Homer Bailey
  • SP Anthony DeSclafani
  • SP Luis Castillo
  • SP Tyler Mahle
  • SP Sal Romano
  • CL Raisel Iglesias

Offseason storylines

The Reds have an okay all-around lineup, buoyed somewhat by their bandbox of a stadium, and one of the top defenses in baseball. Their pitching staff however has been a dumpster fire for the past few years, placing last in all of MLB for the past two seasons including a sub-replacement level number in 2016. The needle is still moving upward this year as they bring in new guys, but it's a pretty low bar to clear. Even then they're still Reds-ing: Jared Michael Lorenzen has a muscle tear near (?) his shoulder, Anthony DeSclafani is bouncing back from missing most of last year with a UCL strain by likely starting the season on the DL with an oblique injury, Brandon Finnegan is dealing with forearm spasms, and Homer Bailey is Homer Bailey. At least as far as the bullpen goes, Hernandez and Hughes should help stabilize things a bit. They're going to be bad, but as we have direct experience having a terrible bullpen on top of a bad team is extra frustrating.

The Suarez deal is pretty much the only Reds-related news to make waves this offseason – he signed to a 7 year extension that buys out at least four FA seasons. Seeing how he would hit free agency before the current CBA was up, it certainly seems like he was spooked by this offseason's market.

The Reds finally seem to be wising up to moving Billy Hamilton down in the order, which is sad to hear considering how bad he is against pitchers whose names do not rhyme with Don Chester.

Reds manager Bryan Price has seemingly been on the hot seat forever, but somehow still has a job. If he finally does get knocked off the wobbly chair at some point, how much fun would it be if Votto became the Reds player-manager? At least it would give him something else to do.

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Comments

  5. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    I still think the smarter move is to option him to AAA for a few weeks and then call him up. You get four league minimum years. About the only way you end up spending more than $24 million over 6 years is if he ends up with all-star level talent. The Phillies don’t gain much here and stand to lose quite a bit. No, it won’t break them or any team for that matter, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good move.

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  7. Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    He will make $10.85MM this year and has 3 more years of arbitration left so I’m thinking that’s an undersell.

    The thing I’m thinking about is that the Phillies think they can contend soon, and the sooner they can get their top guys up and winning games, that soon might be this year especially if the Cardinals and Brewers have their issues and the NL West falters. It seems to me that Kingery was the prospect who agreed to the deal a la Singleton or else they would have just left him down there.

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  8. dmick89

    Rice Cube: He will make $10.85MM this year and has 3 more years of arbitration left so I’m thinking that’s an undersell.

    That’s right. I was thinking he was still league minimum this year. (dying laughing)

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  9. Myles

    I wonder if the Cubs missed on Yu and signed Cobb instead, if they would have been able to take some (all?) of that money and lock up Willson Contreras long-term. Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, and Happ are the only young Cubs at this point that haven’t received a huge payday (and even these fouor have all had high 6 or 7-figure signing bonuses). I’m pretty confident that Rizzo and Bryant are testing FA at this point. Probably Russell and Hendricks too.

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  10. Rice Cube

    Myles,

    If they’re gonna wreck the luxury tax next year anyway, they could try to buy out all the arb years at that point. That’s when most of the core is first eligible anyway.

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  11. Myles

    Rice Cube:
    Myles,

    If they’re gonna wreck the luxury tax next year anyway, they could try to buy out all the arb years at that point. That’s when most of the core is first eligible anyway.

    Do we know a rough luxury tax figure for next year yet?

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  13. Myles

    Cubs as currently constructed will have $16 million or so to play with next off-season. Safe to say they’ll blow past the luxury tax next season.

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  18. cerulean

    Barring catastrophic injury (and nuclear holocaust), I don’t know how the Cubs spend less than $60M on Bryant over the just-less-than-seven years they have him. And that is assuming a financial crisis and recession in the next couple years. His final arb year is almost certain to be $20M+, right?

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  20. dmick89

    cerulean,

    Yeah, I was way off on that one. If I was the Phillies I’d still wait to sign an extension with someone until they’ve at least shown they can play somewhat competently at the MLB level.

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  21. dmick89

    Myles,

    I’m okay with letting Rizzo walk. At his age when he’s a free agent and his position, I’m not that interested in spending all that much on him. Bryant is another story. I’d keep trying to lock him up long-term, but also get prepared to have to out-bid other teams when he’s a free agent. Contreras makes sense for an extension, but I’d still wait on Happ, Schwarber and I’m not sure I’m that interested in one for Baez. Same goes for Russell.

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  22. Perkins

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Rizzo tests free agency and the Cubs end up signing him. Given that he’ll be 32, something like 6/150 seems like it’d be fair and still pay him well. But I’m spitballing here and operating under the assumption that the “face of the team” aspect probably affects both parties.

    I think that’s probably more likely than Bryant’s agreeing to an extension, though I’d keep trying to lock him up long term anyway.

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  23. Myles

    If I had to order my desired extensions, it’d go

    Contreras
    Russell
    Bryant
    Schwarber
    Hendricks
    Baez
    Happ
    Rizzo

    at this point. Russell is so high because his floor is so high (consider that he’s been a valuable player even with a shitty bat because of his defense), and the price would certainly be lower than Rizzo or Bryant.

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  24. dmick89

    Myles,

    My list is probably something like this: Bryant, Contreras, Happ, Schwarber.

    I’m not that interested in extending the others right now. As for why I put Bryant at the top, it’s just really difficult to replace an MVP caliber talent so if you get the chance to get one at any discount, take it. I wouldn’t be willing to give Schwarber any more than $10 million in an extension at this point so that’s probably off the table. The three legitimate candidates I think I could make a strong argument for are Bryant, Contreras and Happ.

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  26. cerulean

    A Hendricks extension would be nice. I am also curious about a Quintana extension given that he has already signed one and therefore he and his representatives may be more risk averse than the typical player.

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  27. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I’d like to wait at least a year for Hendricks. I don’t imagine he’s the kind of pitcher who is going to get a ton of money in free agency so I’m fine if the Cubs just go year to year.

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  28. Berselius is too lazy to log in on his phone

    This weekend I asked myself “look around – can you make some sort of rudimentary lathe?”

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  30. Tyrone

    Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
    Giants’ HC Pat Shurmur on Odell Beckham Jr.: “He’s on our team right now.”

    How comforting.

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  32. Tyrone

    Vic Tafur @VicTafur
    Gruden was asked if he was surprised Colin Kaepernick was not on an NFL roster. Not really. “He got beat out by Blaine Gabbert. That says something.” Lumped Keepernick in with RG3, Tebow and Manziel. Still thinks he will be in a camp this summer.

    Yeah, it says the OAKLV franchise may be in trouble.

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  35. Edwin

    I’d rather the Cubs not try and extend Hendricks. If he loses any more velocity he becomes a pedestrian pitcher pretty promptly. He was also dealing with a finger injury which could turn into a recurring thing. Or he could be like a normal pitcher and his elbow or shoulder could just stop working. I’m fine going year to year with him, and then letting him test FA. I’m not sure how much savings the Cubs would get in an extention anyways.

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