As was done in days of yore, dm and I are rolling out projection posts going into the season. We're not doing anything too complicated – just doing some simple averaging of the systems out there with some tweaks of our own if we see them. There will be inherent flaws in this – each system presumably makes different less than obvious assumptions, whether in terms of playing time, league environments, time spent at various positions, etc. But it's good enough to get an idea of what the systems expect and spark some conversation. The players' 2015 numbers are also included at the top of the table for reference.
Russell stands to get most of the reps at SS, as well he should. Thanks again, Jeff Samardzija!
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Addison Russell | 2015 Stats | 523 | 115 | 29 | 1 | 13 | 42 | 149 | 4 | 3 | .242 | .307 | .389 | .304 | 17.1 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| Addison Russell | ZiPS | 500 | 116 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 126 | 7 | 3 | .252 | .307 | .413 | .316 | 4 | *** | 2.8 |
| Addison Russell | PECOTA | 535 | 116 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 39 | 142 | 6 | 3 | .240 | .301 | .400 | .308 | -2.5 | -1.2 | 1.5 |
| Addison Russell | CAIRO | 458 | 102 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 118 | 7 | 4 | .243 | .311 | .397 | .314 | *** | *** | 1.6 |
| Addison Russell | Steamer | 532 | 119 | 27 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 127 | 9 | 4 | .247 | .307 | .394 | .305 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Addison Russell | Average | 506 | 113 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 128 | 7 | 4 | .246 | .307 | .401 | .311 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 |
Russell was amazing with the glove last year, but his bat needed work. There's reason to be optimistic though, as changes to his swing in the second half gave a big boost to his power numbers. It's easy to be a little spoiled by Trout/Bryant's instant success as well as memory of power hitting shortstops of the 00's and forget just how solid a league average hitter at SS with a plus glove would be…and it's safe to say that he's on the right side of the aging curve as Russell is only 22
Sitrick-favorite Javy Baez was slated to be the primary backup, though with a thumb injury of unknown seriousness he may start the saeson on the DL.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Javier Baez | 2015 Stats | 80 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 2 | .289 | .325 | .408 | .315 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Javier Baez | ZiPS | 526 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 31 | 152 | 18 | 6 | .248 | .301 | .443 | .330 | -6 | *** | 2.3 |
| Javier Baez | PECOTA | 263 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 85 | 7 | 3 | .236 | .286 | .444 | .324 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Javier Baez | CAIRO | 495 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 153 | 15 | 7 | .242 | .291 | .420 | .310 | *** | *** | 2.1 |
| Javier Baez | Steamer | 325 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 91 | 8 | 4 | .252 | .302 | .457 | .325 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Javier Baez | Average | 402 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 23 | 120 | 12 | 5 | .245 | .295 | .441 | .322 | -2 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
Ben Zobrist could pick up some time if Baez's injury runs too long, but I think the Cubs would rather that he just sticks to second. If Baez is out to start the year, I think Kawasaki is more likely to make the squad, though I don't forsee him contributing much above replacement. Let's stick with the 506 PAs listed for Russell above and add another 50 for Baez, combining we have a combined shortstop WAR of 2.3, with considerable upside for both players.
Past position projections:
- Third Base: 5.5 WAR
- First Base: 4.4 WAR
Comments
As previously stated, Russell is my favorite Cubs and I think he’ll be the best of all of them when it’s all said and done. Premium defender at the hardest position with a .280/.350/.450 line and 20 bombs seems achievable as early as 2017 (when he’ll be 23, by the way).
MylesQuote Reply
I just used “Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do” in a FB event invite.
h/t OVblog
Suburban kidQuote Reply
False. He either does that this year or he stinks and so does Epstink.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Should I get MLB.tv? Living in Madison, WI, wouldn’t there be some bs about blacked out games? Why is it 2016 and I can’t just order a Cubs game on demand from my cable company and they’ll send it to my geodesic dome-icile before I get back from going to the store for more jetpack fuel and other moon basics?
umbraQuote Reply
It me, the influencer
berseliusQuote Reply
From what I remember you’ll only be blacked out of Brewers games in Madison.
berseliusQuote Reply
umbra will pay extry for that.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Extry, extry, read all about it: The Brewers Suck And That Makes Me Happy
umbraQuote Reply
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinals-enduring-spring-of-discontent/article_97a72d40-c4b4-5b10-9c92-fbde28bae42f.html
*snicker*
berseliusQuote Reply
Yeah, um, that’s gross.
umbraQuote Reply
Kawasaki, Parra, Victorino ————–> released
though it sounds like the Cubs are trying to re-sign them to minor league deals…which I thought they were on anyway
berseliusQuote Reply
Frenchy ———-> somehow still a major league player
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius:
Kawasaki, Parra, Victorino ————–> released
though it sounds like the Cubs are trying to re-sign them to minor league deals…which I thought they were on anyway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5CVsCnxyXg
mylesQuote Reply
I like Russell’s enthusiasm, but shouldn’t he be trying to snag that ball with his glove instead of his hand?
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
He’s using Jedi powers in this picture.
berseliusQuote Reply
Only one way to be sure. (Though a properly-located VPN should take care of any issues regardless.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
http://i.imgur.com/2VNFQhp.jpg
And Mom says I’m not artistic. Harrumph!
umbraQuote Reply
berselius: From what I remember you’ll only be blacked out of Brewers games in Madison.
umbra,
This is correct. You would miss any Cubs-Brewers game. Not that you’d be missing them, Bob.
ceruleanQuote Reply
umbra,
That’s not what she told me
berseliusQuote Reply
umbra,
Can that be the hero pic for all Russell feats during the year?
ceruleanQuote Reply
With content like that its only a matter of time until we become reundiscredited!
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Just a few more Hot Takes and we’re golden. My pitch: it’s actually bad that the team is so good because they’re not the underdog anymore and they need that chip on their shoulder to really make it to the top.
umbraQuote Reply
Is Dusty a Better Coach for the 2016 Cubs? my column:
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
AZ Phil said it’s because they needed to avoid the $100K retention bonus. So it’ll be a new MiLB deal without that retention bonus.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Are the Cubs too cheap to win a World Serious? my column:
mylesQuote Reply
http://i.imgur.com/vRNuAEi.jpg
It’s nice to call in to meetings, but I’m not very productive anyway.
umbraQuote Reply
I’m guessing those roster retention rules are in there to allow guys the chance to jump to another team late in ST if they’re not going to make the team, but the optics still seem kind of cheap.
berseliusQuote Reply
Baez ——> DL
Ramirez, Sczcur, La Stella ———-> Opening day roster
Kawasaki, Victorino, Parra ———–> heading to Iowa on new minor league deals
berseliusQuote Reply
Addison Muscle
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
also used pic of angry Carlos Silva for the event header.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
berselius,
Sucks for Baez. La Stella was awesome in the two innings I’ve listened to so far this ST.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I know the guy is pretty funny in the dugout, but I hope Kawasaki never gets a single PA with the Cubs this season. Dude flat out sucks.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
Bite your tongue! We need a new cheerleader in the dugout.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/addison-russell-a-love-story/
berseliusQuote Reply