2012 Cubs Bill James Projections, Part 1

Over the years a lot of people have claimed that the Bill James projections are optimistic. In a straight player to player comparison it will often seem that way, but the league average of these projections is important to consider. For example, let’s consider a couple examples.

Player A is projected to hit .330 wOBA, league average is .330 wOBA
Player A is projected to hit .340 wOBA, league average is .345 wOBA

Player A looks a lot better with his .340 projection, but it’s actually slightly worse than league average whereas in the first one he’s projected to be exact league average.

This year’s projections do not include hit batters and only a few projections include ROE so the best we can do is ignore them and we reach a league average of .335 wOBA. Adding in the HBP and ROE would probably increase it to at least .340 and it’s almost certainly going to be higher than any other projection system. Moving on.

Player PA H HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Bryan LaHair 316 79 13 27 72 .273 .335 .474 .350
Starlin Castro 669 197 8 38 82 .312 .354 .441 .347
Geovany Soto 499 111 19 59 120 .252 .345 .450 .346
Brett Jackson 282 63 9 31 78 .251 .333 .434 .336
Jeff Baker 176 46 4 12 35 .280 .333 .433 .333
Alfonso Soriano 464 109 22 31 109 .252 .308 .469 .330
Marlon Byrd 592 153 13 36 103 .275 .329 .412 .321
Blake DeWitt 191 45 4 16 26 .257 .326 .400 .317
Tony Campana 143 39 0 8 24 .289 .333 .341 .302
Tyler Colvin 200 44 7 11 46 .233 .279 .413 .296
Darwin Barney 321 84 2 15 36 .275 .317 .356 .296
Koyie Hill 144 30 2 11 34 .226 .285 .323 .274

I expect we’ll see LaHair projected to be the best or second best among the current signed player in most projections. If you’re curious, Carlos Pena is projected to hit .353. Aramis Ramirez is projected to hit .362.


Quantcast