2012 Cubs CAIRO Projections, Part 2

Below are the pitching projections for SG’s CAIRO. ZiPS is already out so I’ll post the batter projections later today.

Name IP HR BB SO RA ERA FIP
Matt Garza 194 21 64 177 4.11 3.65 3.66
Ryan Dempster 200 22 76 184 4.55 4.14 3.83
Carlos Zambrano 103 10 44 81 4.39 4.11 4.05
Trey McNutt 133 13 59 100 4.64 4.29 4.23
Randy Wells 119 15 39 81 4.55 4.29 4.30
Jay Jackson 164 22 58 114 5.16 4.77 4.51
Casey Coleman 99 12 42 66 5.34 5.02 4.60

Garza is undoubtedly the best starting pitcher the Cubs have. Those aren’t great numbers, but they’re very good. CAIRO expects a rebound season from Dempster for good reason. McNutt is as good or better than Randy Wells. That’s surprising.

Name IP HR BB SO RA ERA FIP
Sean Marshall 77 4 24 79 3.19 2.93 2.65
Carlos Marmol 77 4 49 107 3.49 3.37 3.16
Andrew Cashner 41 3 20 35 4.03 3.74 3.98
Jeff Samardzija 57 5 33 52 4.55 3.89 4.19
Scott Maine 39 5 19 37 4.48 4.15 4.24
Jeff Beliveau 78 11 39 84 4.51 4.16 4.33
John Gaub 39 4 29 44 4.77 4.42 4.35
Marcos Mateo 42 6 20 37 5.10 4.76 4.56
James Russell 63 11 16 48 5.17 4.21 4.61
Chris Carpenter 56 6 32 43 4.86 4.50 4.81
Rafael Dolis 63 5 41 42 5.06 4.67 4.88
Justin Berg 37 4 19 21 5.16 4.71 4.91
Esmailin Caridad 52 8 24 38 5.75 5.24 5.13

Sean Marshall has shown himself to be the better reliever than Carlos Marmol over the last two to three seasons. CAIRO expects that trend to continue and he expect him to be significantly better than Marmol. League average ERA in the bullpen is about 4.05 so Cashner is a bit above average and Samardzija, Maine, are a bit better than replacement.

Needless to say, the Cubs need some pitching. They were 25th in ERA a year ago and 22nd in FIP. The starters were 28th in ERA and 22nd in FIP. The relievers were a lot better as they were 9th in ERA and 14th in FIP.


Quantcast