2012 Cubs ZiPS Projections, Part 2

We looked at the ZiPS projections for the batters already so here are the pitchers.

Player IP H HR BB K ERA FIP
Matt Garza 194.3 176 19 64 181 3.52 3.60
Andrew Cashner 64.7 59 5 30 51 3.76 4.02
Ryan Dempster 174.0 172 21 67 153 4.24 4.17
Carlos Zambrano 137.7 136 14 60 108 4.25 4.26
Randy Wells 156.0 165 20 51 101 4.5 4.55
Trey McNutt 103.7 117 10 48 67 4.95 4.55
Casey Coleman 146.7 156 19 61 95 4.97 4.84
Jay Jackson 143.7 166 17 46 82 5.02 4.56
Christopher Carpenter 88.0 95 10 53 59 5.11 5.14
RELIEVERS
Sean Marshall 73.3 60 5 21 78 2.74 2.82
Carlos Marmol 73.3 51 5 49 101 3.19 3.34
Jeff Beliveau 65.7 59 9 32 68 4.25 4.37
Scott Maine 59.7 57 7 30 55 4.37 4.39
Jeff Samardzija 78.7 71 8 46 68 4.12 4.55
John Gaub 49.7 43 6 36 55 4.35 4.73
Rafael Dolis 85.7 93 7 53 50 5.04 4.95
James Russell 73.0 81 13 20 49 5.05 4.99
Esmalin Caridad 61.3 71 9 28 42 5.43 5.11
Justin Berg 53.3 84 6 29 27 5.06 5.28

No surprise to see Garza at the top of the starting pitchers. Also no surprise to see Marshall as not just better than Marmol, but quite a bit better. In fact, Sean Marshall is projected to be better than Mariano Rivera is. Factor in the league and Rivera will be more valuable, but still. After those two, you’re below replacement. There’s a huge drop after Marmol.

The one projection that stands out to me is Andrew Cashner. ZiPS projects 11 games started and 31 overall appearances so most of those innings are as a starter. I have no idea how ZiPS can be projecting Cashner to be so good. It makes no sense to me. Projections are based on past performance, and even if you include minor league performance, I don’t see how you get that projection. Last year, ZiPS projected a 3.84 ERA and 4.11 FIP. He only threw a few innings last year, but is somehow a slightly improved pitcher. Doesn’t make sense.


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