2013 PECOTA Projections

The 2013 PECOTA projections are out and I thought I'd post some of the Cubs below. Since you have to be a subscriber in order to download the spreadsheet, I'm only going to include PA and wOBA, which I calculated using the basic formula. For pitchers I'll only show IP and FIP (I calculated this too).

2013 PECOTA Projections for Cubs Batters

Name PA wOBA
Starlin Castro 623 0.325
David DeJesus 555 0.328
Scott Hairston 456 0.318
Anthony Rizzo 631 0.341
Welington Castillo 374 0.321
Alfonso Soriano 552 0.316
Ian Stewart 365 0.312
Nate Schierholtz 349 0.321
Darwin Barney 551 0.291
Luis Valbuena 256 0.307
Dioner Navarro 191 0.302
Brett Jackson 131 0.298
Steve Clevenger 137 0.283
Dave Sappelt 152 0.295
Junior Lake 46 0.280
Josh Vitters 250 0.286
Matt Szczur 250 0.284

PECOTA is projecting the Cubs only score 664 runs so it's not a powerhouse offense or anything. Castro is expected to have the most value at 3.4 WARP and no one else, using the depth charts section of Baseball Prospectus, is projected with more than 1.9 WARP.

2013 PECOTA Projections for Cubs Pitchers

Name IP FIP
Matt Garza 180.0 3.88
Scott Baker 138.0 3.91
Edwin Jackson 186.0 4.04
Kyuji Fujikawa 56.3 2.65
Carlos Marmol 61.0 3.04
Scott Feldman 138.7 4.32
Travis Wood 106.0 4.12
Carlos Villanueva 101.3 4.19
Jeff Samardzija 195.3 4.58
Shawn Camp 65.7 3.89
Manny Corpas 44.0 4.09
Arodys Vizcaino 36.3 4.69
Jaye Chapman 36.0 4.45
Marcos Mateo 36.7 4.56
Casey Coleman 50.0 4.72
Trey McNutt 36.0 4.92
Rafael Dolis 18.7 5.02
James Russell 61.0 4.79
Chris Rusin 63.3 4.79
Brooks Raley 54.3 5.10
Alberto Cabrera 23.3 4.96

PECOTA loves Kyuji Fujikawa and still really likes Carlos Marmol, but there's still going to be a closer controversy there if both perform as PECOTA expects. As for Jeff Samardzija, I'd not put a whole lot of weight in these forecasts. He beat them all last year because it was clear he had improved. The projections are still weighting the seasons prior to 2012 in which he mostly sucked. PECOTA doesn't think much of Arodys Vizcaino.

PECOTA likes the Cubs pitching. Only the Reds in the NL Central are projected to allow fewer than the 706 runs the Cubs are projected to allow.

Overall, PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to finish in 5th place in the NL Central with 77 wins.

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