2014 Cubs: PECOTA Pitchers

Baseball Prospectus has come out with their annual PECOTA projections and today we'll take a look at the Cubs pitchers. For what it's worth, the depth chart over there has them projected for 5th in the NL Central with 71 wins. Only one team is projected to be worse in the National League (69 wins): the Miami Marlins.

I'm fairly sure that 71 wins is pretty close to any online sportsbook. The Cubs aren't exactly primed for a strong season in 2014. It's another rebuilding year.  The 2014 season will mark season number four of the Cubs Decade of Rebuilding Plan. 

Here are the Cubs pitchers (I calculated the FIP). 

Name G GS IP H HR ERA FIP WARP
Travis Wood 31 31 186 167 21 3.68 4.10 2.1
Edwin Jackson 31 31 186 182 21 4.15 4.00 0.9
Jose Veras 61 0 64 52 7 3.58 3.98 0.6
Carlos Villanueva 24 24 144 139 20 4.23 4.32 0.6
Pedro Strop 56 0 59 49 5 3.68 3.76 0.5
Jake Arrieta 21 21 111 103 13 4.27 4.35 0.5
Kyle Hendricks 11 11 58 58 7 4.00 4.21 0.5
C.J. Edwards 19 14 89 76 9 3.95 3.99 0.5
Blake Parker 51 0 54 45 6 3.74 3.88 0.4
Daniel Bard 31 2 37 29 4 3.61 4.16 0.3
Kyuji Fujikawa 23 0 25 22 3 3.55 3.81 0.2
Michael Bowden 31 3 51 46 6 3.91 4.30 0.2
Kevin Gregg 55 0 55 48 6 4.15 4.21 0.1
Jeff Samardzija 31 31 195 188 26 4.49 4.39 0.1
Zac Rosscup 19 0 20 17 2 3.99 3.96 0.1
Justin Grimm 25 25 137 137 14 4.31 4.03 0.1
Wesley Wright 33 0 35 32 4 4.19 4.21 0
Hector Rodon 61 0 64 63 9 4.29 4.30 0
Chang-Yang Lim 35 3 37 34 4 4.29 4.43 0
Brooks Raley 37 0 40 38 5 4.27 4.74 0
Chris Rusin 13 13 69 71 9 4.67 4.69 0
James Russell 61 0 64 65 10 4.45 4.61 -0.1
Arodys Vizcaino 28 0 30 29 3 4.42 4.18 -0.1
Trey McNutt 16 7 39 40 5 4.91 4.88 -0.2
Pierce Johnson 18 18 86 85 10 4.65 4.50 -0.2
Jonathon Sanchez 14 14 76 67 11 4.69 4.84 -0.3
Neil Ramirez 19 19 95 89 13 4.72 4.71 -0.3
Tsuyoshi Wada 12 12 77 81 10 4.82 4.67 -0.5
Alberto Cabrera 37 0 40 42 5 5.30 4.74 -0.5
Dillon Maples 18 11 59 62 7 5.80 5.42 -0.9

That's just sad. I'm fairly sure they're wrong on Samardzija. Something about PECOTA just doesn't like him, which was understandable a couple years ago. Nobody liked him and then the new front office promoted him. I think they did it to anger me, but turns out I was the fool. That happens sometimes. Probably a lot of times.

I like Travis Wood as much as the next guy, unless the next guy is related to him. Then I probably don't like him as much. Anyway, if he's the best starting pitcher on the team, you've likely got an awful pitching staff. PECOTA thinks the Cubs have just that.

Their bullpen could be fairly strong with ace relievers like Pedro Strop and Jose Veras wearing Cubs uniforms. There are a handful of teams that would be happy to boast they possess those two, but only the Cubs do. That's to their advantage right there. Throw in Wesley Wright or any other reliever they have and the Cubs bullpen might be mediocre. 

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