2014 Cubs Projections: Bill James ***UPDATED***

The 2014 Cubs Projections are available now in the Bill James Handbook, or online. I thought I'd post them here and discuss a few things. First, the BJ projections tend to use a higher league average so please consider that when viewing the projections. In fact, please consider the league average of each projection system when you're looking at projections.

UPDATE: For some dumbass reason, I divided by AB rather than PA. Didn't mean to, but it happened so here are the updated and correct (based on available stats) numbers for the Bill James projections for batters. Thanks to John Arguello for pointing it out to sitrick on twitter. 

Name Age PA* 2B 3B HR BB%* K%* Avg OBP Slg wOBA*
Anthony Rizzo 24 680 42 2 30 10.0% 18.1% .266 .344 .489 0.357
Javier Baez 21 584 25 0 22 7.4% 28.4% .270 .324 .438 0.332
Ryan Sweeney 29 313 17 2 6 8.3% 16.0% .275 .338 .411 0.330
Mike Olt 25 551 25 1 24 12.0% 28.7% .225 .318 .429 0.327
Luis Valbuena 28 336 17 1 9 11.3% 17.0% .248 .337 .403 0.327
Brian Bogusevic 30 235 11 1 5 9.8% 20.0% .264 .342 .396 0.326
Welington Castillo 27 452 24 0 13 8.2% 22.1% .263 .330 .414 0.324
Junior Lake 24 540 32 2 13 5.9% 23.0% .276 .321 .423 0.324
Nate Schierholtz 30 500 30 4 16 6.0% 18.4% .260 .308 .443 0.322
Donnie Murphy 31 136 8 0 6 6.6% 24.3% .244 .309 .449 0.319
Dioner Navarro 30 294 12 0 8 8.5% 13.9% .260 .328 .394 0.318
Starlin Castro 24 683 37 7 11 5.1% 15.8% .279 .321 .409 0.317
Cody Ransom 38 192 10 0 8 9.9% 28.1% .225 .306 .422 0.316
Julio Borbon 28 165 6 1 1 6.7% 13.9% .266 .319 .338 0.294
Darwin Barney 28 555 26 2 6 6.1% 10.6% .251 .302 .344 0.286

I calculated plate appearances, wOBA, BB% and K%. Some other things of note.

1. Starlin Castro has fallen a long way. Donnie Murphy has a higher projection than him. Murphy has primarily played SS in his career. There's another shortstop higher than Castro.

2. Javier Baez! Even considering the league average, which I did not calculate, Baez is projected to be good at the age of 21. If Baez can play a passable SS, I wouldn't be opposed to seeing what he can do at the MLB level to begin the season. Figure out what to do with Castro later.

3. Mike Olt! An even better projection than Javier Baez. I'm not sure why.

4. If the Cubs had both Baez and Olt on the team next year, how close would they be to leading the league in strikeouts?

5. A lineup that regularly included three players who are projected to have walk rate 10% or higher would make me happy. I'd also be very surprised to see it happen.

6. Bill James likes Anthony Rizzo.

7. It's unlikely either Olt or Baez begin the year in Chicago. Also unlikely that either would as many home runs as BJ projects. Other than those two, and Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs have shit for power.

Name Age IP H HR BB SO ERA FIP*
Pedro Strop 29 65 56 3 32 68 3.46 3.37
Justin Grimm 25 118 125 10 39 94 4.04 3.78
Blake Parker 29 55 44 6 23 60 3.11 3.80
Jeff Samardzija 29 211 198 24 76 194 3.80 4.02
Edwin Jackson 30 190 199 20 62 148 4.07 4.05
Scott Baker 32 30 30 4 7 24 3.60 4.13
Michael Bowden 27 38 34 4 15 32 3.55 4.15
Travis Wood 27 197 183 21 66 155 3.70 4.15
Chris Rusin 27 92 95 9 29 57 4.11 4.31
Carlos Villanueva 30 125 116 17 41 107 3.74 4.34
Matt Guerrier 35 39 35 4 16 27 3.69 4.46
Kevin Gregg 36 62 57 7 33 57 4.21 4.52
Jake Arrieta 28 117 114 14 53 99 4.31 4.58
Hector Rondon 26 60 62 8 27 53 4.80 4.67
James Russell 28 48 51 7 15 34 4.50 4.68

I calculated FIP using a 3.2 constant.

1. BJ doesn't do the projections for pitchers. Baseball Info Solutions does because BJ does not believe you can project pitchers.

2. BIS always hates James Russell, which is due to how poorly he pitched as a starter. Not sure why it's not different at this point, but oh well.

3. I think all of these pitcher projections look silly for any pitcher projected to pitch under 125 innings.

4. That's it.

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