The 2014 Cubs Projections are available now in the Bill James Handbook, or online. I thought I'd post them here and discuss a few things. First, the BJ projections tend to use a higher league average so please consider that when viewing the projections. In fact, please consider the league average of each projection system when you're looking at projections.
UPDATE: For some dumbass reason, I divided by AB rather than PA. Didn't mean to, but it happened so here are the updated and correct (based on available stats) numbers for the Bill James projections for batters. Thanks to John Arguello for pointing it out to sitrick on twitter.
I calculated plate appearances, wOBA, BB% and K%. Some other things of note.
1. Starlin Castro has fallen a long way. Donnie Murphy has a higher projection than him. Murphy has primarily played SS in his career. There's another shortstop higher than Castro.
2. Javier Baez! Even considering the league average, which I did not calculate, Baez is projected to be good at the age of 21. If Baez can play a passable SS, I wouldn't be opposed to seeing what he can do at the MLB level to begin the season. Figure out what to do with Castro later.
3. Mike Olt! An even better projection than Javier Baez. I'm not sure why.
4. If the Cubs had both Baez and Olt on the team next year, how close would they be to leading the league in strikeouts?
5. A lineup that regularly included three players who are projected to have walk rate 10% or higher would make me happy. I'd also be very surprised to see it happen.
6. Bill James likes Anthony Rizzo.
7. It's unlikely either Olt or Baez begin the year in Chicago. Also unlikely that either would as many home runs as BJ projects. Other than those two, and Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs have shit for power.
I calculated FIP using a 3.2 constant.
1. BJ doesn't do the projections for pitchers. Baseball Info Solutions does because BJ does not believe you can project pitchers.
2. BIS always hates James Russell, which is due to how poorly he pitched as a starter. Not sure why it's not different at this point, but oh well.
3. I think all of these pitcher projections look silly for any pitcher projected to pitch under 125 innings.
4. That's it.