Obstructed View Projections Contest Results

Prior to the start of the season we set up an over/under projections contest. It was rather extensive so fewer people than we'd hoped entered the contest. Plus, there aren't all that many people who are dying to have an Obstructed View t-shirt. There just aren't. Really, trust us.

It was a long survey. We used 11 position players and 7 pitchers. Kerry Wood has since been removed due to his retirement so we had a total of 17 players and 3 statistics for each player.

Of the 51 fields, not including the tie-breaker becasue it wasn't necessary, 13 of the 22 who completed it predicted more than half correct, but only 1 person was over 28. Mark Ammer ran away with it as he predicted 33 of them correct. So even if we left Kerry Wood in there, he could not have lost.

Projectjions are more or less a baseline of talent, which means it's the average production we can expect from the player. It's interesting that our group average was exactly 25.5, or half of the predictions being correct.

When I was sorting through the totals I was actually curious if we were better able to project, at least in the form of an over/under, certain players. I haven't looked into that yet, but will sometime. I did notice that a couple of the returning players we predicted correctly almost across the board while new players were more mixed. I wouldn't guarantee that is correct, but I got that impression.

This isn't too surprising either as we know a little more about the players than a projection system can include since we're more familiar with how they'll be used and their current inury status.

I may or may not dig further into our predictions. The point total for all who entered the contest is below. For the couple of people that either do not regularly comment here or we're unaware of what name they use, we used the initials of their real name.

Quantcast