PECOTA Percentiles are live

Baseball Prospectus has updated their player pages to show the PECOTA percentile forecasts.

PECOTA percentiles are now available to subscribers.

Those of you new to BP, or to PECOTA, might wonder why we publish percentiles in addition to the weighted-mean projections for players, which we’ve already released. The answer is that forecasting is an inexact science; the future is not exactly what you'd call certain. The percentiles allow us to put a range of outcomes around a single-point forecast, to illustrate how uncertain the forecast is and what range of outcomes are most likely.

The percentiles, then, represent the spread of outcomes if we were to have a player go through the 2013 season thousands upon thousands of times. Imagine a bell curve, with the 50th percentile at the very peak. Twenty percent of the time, a player's results should fall in between the 40th and 60th percentiles—or 60 percent of the time, a player should perform at his 60th percentile or worse, while 40 percent of the time, he should play better.