Rockies 6, Cubs 1 (4/15/16)

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius88 Comments

OSS: Cubs defense gives us a flashback or three

Three up:

  1. Not much to pick for the Cubs today, in an all-around listless day game after a night game performance. The only Cubs position players with a positive WPA were Russell and Soler. Russell had the biggest WPA play of the day when he reached on a pitching error in the fifth, making it first and third with one out in a one run game. More on what happened next below. Russell also from the sounds of Pat Hughes's call made several great plays including a few goundouts in the first, though he did commit an error to start the endless eighth inning.
  2. Soler had a nice game, and has looked much more selective at the plate of late. He was the leadoff hitter and got on base to start both of the Cubs mini-rallies in the fifth and seventh, and scored the Cubs only run on the day.
  3. Kyle Hendricks had an okay-ish outing, though he wasn't helped by the Cubs defense during the game. Or himself for that matter – the first run that scored was a baserunner that reached on an error commited by himself. He struck out five and didn't walk anyone but gave up seven hits and two ROEs. 

Three down

  1. I don't know what Joe's deal is with letting pitchers bat for themselves. Hendricks came up to bat for himself with runners on first and third with one out in a 1-0 game, when he was set to face the heart of the Rockies lineup for the third time when he returned to the hill. Hendricks bunted out in some kind of weird non-squeeze that erased Soler from third. 
  2. The defense was sloppy all game, and Rizzo got a gift on a bobble late in the game that should have made it five errors on the day. Bryant had two on the day, including a throwing error on a bunt that had a runner score all the way from first. Woof.
  3. The Rockies put it out of reach, though maybe not for the usual Cubs offense we've seen, in the eighth in an endless inning that included three stolen bases, a wild pitch, an infield single, an error, two walks, and two fielder's choice runs. I'm not the biggest fan of Richards or Ramirez, but sometimes perfect storms like this happen. The stolen bases are especially strange – you expect guys like Arrieta and obiously Lester to give few fucks about holding runners, but it would be nice if a lefty like ClayDick or any of the other relievers would pay attention to this shit.

Next game: Jay Carrieta v Some Dude, er, Christian Bergmann, 1:20 PM CT

Lineups

Rockies

  • 2B Adames (sp?)
  • SS Story
  • RF Gonzalez
  • 3B Arenado
  • CF Parra
  • 1B Mark Reynolds
  • LF Rayburn
  • C Garneu
  • P Bergman 

Nick Hundley is headed to the concussion DL, but the Rockies already called up an extra catcher a few days back.

Cubs

  • CF Fowler
  • 3B Bryant
  • 1B Rizzo
  • LF Soler
  • 2B Baez
  • SS Russell
  • RF Szczur
  • C Ross
  • SP Arrieta

A bunch of days off…this probably should have been the lineup yesterday instead. Though I guess I'd rather have a lower octane offense with Arrieta on the mound than Hendricks.

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Comments

  1. Author
    berselius

    Rice in limbo:
    Lineup today is righty loaded. Smarter people than I on the interwebs have suggested that it is because the RHP has a sizable reverse split.

    I think it’s more due to rest and that this guy just kind of sucks in general. I can’t point to anything scouting-related to explain his reverse platoon split, but I don’t think there’s enough data to make much conclusions about it.

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  2. Author
    berselius

    T minus two hours until I figure out whether I can actually watch this game. Can’t remember if I get the Denver RSN.

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  3. cerulean

    Cubs are +3 in differential over the next best team—the St Louis Cardinals—the team with the most runs scored of any team in the league.

    They are not supposed to be this good—even against the likes of Atlanta and Milwaukee.

    (ノ ゜Д゜)ノ ︵ ┻━┻

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  4. cerulean

    DM—any chance of putting “sans serif” first in the font hierarchy in front of Arial? That should allow for the system default to come first—San Francisco on Apple products, Roboto on some Android devices, Segoe (maybe) on newer Windows thingies. My eyes suffer from Arial fatigue (as well as it being a constant reminder that creative originals are often coopted by cheaper corporate knock-offs disguised in origiality).

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  5. cerulean

    berselius:
    T minus two hours until I figure out whether I can actually watch this game. Can’t remember if I get the Denver RSN.

    Use a VPN. I was able to find a deal for lifetime access for something like $40 for a not awful VPN that I usually just leave on because my speed bottleneck is not the VPN. The one I am using is VPN Unlimited (lifetime sub is $130 right now)—they have the deal going on right now: https://stacksocial.com/sales/vpn-unlimited-lifetime-subscription

    YMMV, but my wife has been using it to watch Gardener’s World in the UK and I can get around the blackout restrictions and torrent without Comcast knowing any the wiser. And when the VPN resets, I can give my own posts the finger on this very site (:))

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  6. dmick89

    cerulean: I can get around the blackout restrictions and torrent without Comcast knowing any the wiser.

    I rarely download torrents because my ISP can track it (I have a VPN, but always forget to turn it on) and this morning I downloaded a Banshee torrent and got a notice from my ISP (they got one from HBO about it). I always use the newsgroups to download that stuff if I’m going that route, but Banshee episodes sometimes take a few days to show up on the newsgroups and it’s become one of my favorite shows.

    /cool story bro

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  7. dmick89

    cerulean: DM—any chance of putting “sans serif” first in the font hierarchy in front of Arial?

    Yeah, let me try it out. I have trouble reading some fonts. My eyes suck. (dying laughing)

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  8. Author
    berselius

    cerulean: Use a VPN. I was able to find a deal for lifetimeaccess for something like $40 for a not awful VPN that I usually just leave on because my speed bottleneck is not the VPN. The one I am using is VPN Unlimited (lifetime sub is $130 right now)—they have the deal going on right now: https://stacksocial.com/sales/vpn-unlimited-lifetime-subscription

    YMMV, but my wife has been using it to watch Gardener’s World in the UK and I can get around the blackout restrictions and torrent without Comcast knowing any the wiser. And when the VPN resets, I can give my own posts the finger on this very site (:))

    If you can install broadband good enough to stream video in my remote mountain valley, I’m all over that (dying laughing).

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  9. Author
    berselius

    berselius,

    It’s directv or nothing until that any-day-now fiber gets out here that they’ve been promising for the last year. They even called to hook me up last month, but got confused by my mailbox and hooked up the house across the street. Rural life, man.

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  10. cerulean

    Turns out Stack Social has a referral system:

    https://stacksocial.com/sign_up

    I don’t know how it pays, but it does remind me that Amazon has that affiliate program, an OV affiliate code would be a good way to support the monetary costs of the site (the discredit can never be paid back).

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  11. dmick89

    cerulean: DM—any chance of putting “sans serif” first in the font hierarchy in front of Arial?

    I made the change, but on a Mac so it’s still coming up Arial for me. How is it for you?

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  12. cerulean

    berselius: If you can install broadband good enough to stream video in my remote mountain valley, I’m all over that (dying laughing).

    Hah—I thought it was the blackout.

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  13. Author
    berselius

    cerulean,

    It’s both – I have extra innings from DTV, but they still black out DBacks and Rockies games from the 700s, where those usually live. MLB business model ftl.

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  14. cerulean

    dmick89: I made the change, but on a Mac so it’s still coming up Arial for me. How is it for you?

    A lot of people have trouble distinguishing between Arial and Helvetica (dying laughing)

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  15. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I thought with the transition to San Francisco as the system font that it would be the default, but apparently not. I do find Helvetica Neue to be quite agreeable for reading text (though I still find its and its digital predecessor’s use as a system font to be baffling, particularly for the I vs l distinction).

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  16. cerulean

    berselius:
    berselius,

    It’s directv or nothing until that any-day-now fiber gets out here that they’ve been promising for the last year. They even called to hook me up last month, but got confused by my mailbox and hooked up the house across the street. Rural life, man.

    This is the story of my life.

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  17. cerulean

    dmick89: Yeah, let me try it out. I have trouble reading some fonts. My eyes suck. (dying laughing)

    By the way, sometimes having eyes that suck is a blessing. After a certain resolution, I am almost certain that anything more is a detriment to contentedness. It’s like having really great hearing and all you get is the persistent high-pitched whines from appliances as your benefit.

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  18. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I’m not sure why I hadn’t thought about the additional bandwidth before. I’m certainly a novice when it comes to this sort of stuff, but I did try to optimize the site the best I could. I know there are things that need improving, but some of them are beyond me at this point. I should have thought about the font though. I guess that just didn’t even occur to me. Thanks for pointing it out. Don’t hesitate to bring up other things that can help the site’s performance. Less bandwidth for you is a good thing for us too.

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  19. Author
    berselius

    Remembered the workaround was to watch the game on the multi-view channel, which sort of sucks. But it does allow me to see Jay Bruce’s terrible defense all over again, this time against the Cardinals

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  20. cerulean

    dmick89: I know there are things that need improving, but some of them are beyond me at this point.

    That’s the way I feel about most web technologies these days. They are all javascripted to hell. I am fairly certain that many of the older, no frills approaches to web design are better than a lot of the crazy things done to add interactivity.

    Most whiz-bang novelties are just that—whiz-bang novelties. They are like the special effects in Star Wars—good for the time, may age poorly, and since the underlying story is the real meat of the content, ultimately ineffective in adding lasting enjoyment. The first trilogy had a good story, and the original theatrical releases still hold up. The prequel trilogy—and I am judging having only seen it precisely .5 times a decade-and-a-half ago—saw the first in a screening, couldn’t make through the second one with the clones and VHS didn’t fast-forward fast enough to see the end—didn’t hold up.

    The really good stuff is the stuff you tend to take for granted.

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  21. cerulean

    dmick89:
    The first 3 hitters looked baffled by Bergman.

    He grooved two to Bryant to start him in an 0-2 hole. I wonder if the hitters have a strategy of taking pitches early or pouncing on pitches based on the advanced scouting (usually the taking). This Bergman seems have the plan of establishing early strikes with meatballs.

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  22. cerulean

    That Reynolds single left the bat at 65mph, lucky bastard (dying laughing)

    EDIT: That Soler single, meanwhile, was 113mph.

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  23. cerulean

    Soler’s 108mph homer with a 29 degree launch angle went 422 feet.
    Rizzo’s 102mph homer with a 28 degree launch angle went 385 feet.

    6 mph and a degree off the angle = 37 feet.

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  24. Author
    berselius

    dmick89:
    Is that Do Simple Better Cubs tshirt that Maddon is wearing in that one commercial for sale anywhere? I can’t find it.

    Have you checked his charity? I think that’s where they were selling the try not to suck shirts.

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  25. Suburban kid

    Baez seems his old flaily self at the plate.

    Otherwise I’m enjoying this game much more than yesterday’s game

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  26. Rizzo the Rat

    I agree with the announcers; it makes no sense to award a hit when the runner interferes with a batted ball.

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  27. cerulean

    I was against signing Dexter for what I thought he should get on the open market. I and everyone else were wrong—and the Cubs got an absolute steal.

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  28. cerulean

    dmick89:
    berselius,

    Wainwright said something about Heyward? Why can’t these people just be adults and shut the fuck up?

    Because talking out of your the back of your neck has proven to be “yuge”.

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  29. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat:
    Arrieta is good.

    He makes it so easy to take it for granted, to the point that it seems like everyone should be able to do this. He has the game set on easy mode. It’s great too that he isn’t a pompous asshole about it because he also knows what it’s like to suck and disappoint.

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  30. cerulean

    The gameday feed had this little nugget: Jake Arrieta becomes the first pitcher since 1900 to turn in six consecutive scoreless outings at home.

    There is something to this Jay Carrieta character.

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  31. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: That should be asked post-game, but it won’t be.

    Agreed. As long as we maintain an .800 winning percentage, tho, I imagine Joe could pinch-hit with Arrieta in a one-run game and nobody would care.

    Besides discredited blogs and those who frequent them anyway. And maybe Gordo. (dying laughing)

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  32. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    I will. A bad decision is a bad decision. I wouldn’t care as much were it to happen while the Cubs were fighting to get into the playoffs, but I’d still be bothered by it. Batting Arrieta there makes no sense. For what it’s worth, pitching him in the 9th would have made no sense either so credit to Joe for making the right decision there. It would have been easy to let him go for the complete game shutout. Glad he didn’t.

    At least it’s been awhile since a reliever came to the plate. About a week.

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  33. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: A bad decision is a bad decision.

    It is that. And it’s puzzling. He can’t hit very well to begin with, you’d like to keep pouring on as much as possible — not to mention a fastball to the melon or wrist, Jake coming out of the box wrong a la the hateful Adam Wainwright, and your ace is fucked and this season takes on another coat of tarnish.

    There’s nothing to gain. Everything to lose. He’s not pitching the 9th. The fuck?

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  34. cerulean

    dmick89: For what it’s worth, pitching him in the 9th would have made no sense either so credit to Joe for making the right decision there.

    He was at 100 pitches even. I thought with him hitting they thought he would handle 110-115 fine, which I think is true. I know they don’t want to wear him down, but where is that line? 100 pitches is just an arbitrary number, like 87 or 109 or 133. I think leaving him in to 133 pitches is too much, but 87 is too little. Where is the line?

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  35. dmick89

    cerulean: 100 pitches is just an arbitrary number, like 87 or 109 or 133.

    Yeah, I always had a difficult time understanding the hard 120 limit some fans had. To be honest, I didn’t even know how many pitches he had. I’d have guessed 105, but I was thinking more about the score when I said there was no reason for him to pitch the 9th. They were up big at that point with only 1 inning left. The team’s worst reliever could get them through one inning without giving up that many runs. That’s more how I think about it. 2-0, I’d have sent him back out there. 3-0? I’d probably have used Rondon. 4 runs or more and I’d have used Wood. An argument could even be made that Arrieta was unnecessary in the 8th inning too, but I think an argument can also be made that you can underwork a starting pitcher so I’d have sent him out for the 8th.

    Anyway, hopefully that gives you an idea how I look at it. I can’t really explain it much better.

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  36. Rice in limbo

    cerulean,

    I think that AB was inconsequential given the score, the fact that Arrieta was done anyway after that, and might have just been for the fun of it. I guess he could’ve hurt an oblique or gotten drilled by a vindictive pitcher but the chances of that weren’t alarmingly high. So I shrug.

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  37. cerulean

    Rice in limbo,

    I think I figured it out. Arrieta had a 99mph flyout and a 96mph lineout. I think he wanted to smoke one, and he got smoked instead. But hey, I have to give him props for making that kind of contact.

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  38. Suburban kid

    cerulean:
    Rice in limbo,

    I think I figured it out. Arrieta had a 99mph flyout and a 96mph lineout. I think he wanted to smoke one, and he got smoked instead. But hey, I have to give him fair fucks for making that kind of contact.

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  39. cerulean

    Maddon on leaving him in there: With a five run lead he was going to send him back out there, with a six run lead he wasn’t. Ross drove in a run right ahead of him, so he batted and sat and that was that.

    I find it mollifying that Maddon did have an admittedly arbitrary cut off.

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  40. dmick89

    JonKneeV: Not joking. Brett says it was a good decision. Cubs poop butterflies and rainbows.

    How on earth is that a good decision? I can see it being a non-decision. It was inconsequential as RC mentioned. It didn’t really hurt the Cubs chances of winning the game (though it was still a negative). It was far from a good decision, though.

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  41. dmick89

    cerulean: I find it mollifying that Maddon did have an admittedly arbitrary cut off.

    I find it curious that the cutoff wouldn’t be grand slam territory. What the hell is the difference between 5 and 6 runs in the 9th inning? The worst reliever in baseball can protect a 5-run lead in the 9th. He can probably do it in the 8th and the 9th. I can at least see somewhat of a difference between 4 and 5 runs. One swing of the bat isn’t going to tie that thing up. Not that one swing ever really ties it up (you have to get all the other runners on base first). 6 is just a weird cutoff. Is the cutoff the same for all pitchers? It probably shouldn’t be. Hammel needs an 11 run lead or he’s gone? Lester needs a 7 run lead. Lackey is 8 and Hendricks is 9.

    Do pitch counts come into play? If Arrieta is at 120 pitches and they lead by 5, does he pitch the 9th?

    I find that answer to be more irritating than anything. I think that’s just Joe talking to talk because it doesn’t make sense. (dying laughing)

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