Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (12-9) at Boston Red Sox (11-10)

In Series Previews by berselius76 Comments

I like this matchup much more in the regular season than as a possible World Series matchup going into last postseason. I underrated the Indians by a lot, but I still think that Boston was the best team in the AL last year.

Team Leaders

Cubs

Sox

Thank the maker that the Cubs dodge Sale in this series.

Injuries, news, blood feuds, etc.

The Red Sox have had a few notable players go down in the early going, including big signing David Price who is out with elbow/forearm soreness. Those specific injuries always set off alarm bells. Panda got off to a good start on the year but is on the shelf with a groin strain, And Brock Holt (o/) is on the DL with vertigo. I thought there might be a suspension or two stemming from their beanball war with Baltimore last weekend, but I can't find anything on a quick search.

Nothing much breweing for the Cubs, though seventh starter Eddie Butler hit the DL this week with a minor ankle injury.

Probable Pitchers

Current K/9, BB/9, ERA, xFIP and projected ERA listed for each pitcher.

Friday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (10.58, 1.82, 3.65, 2.99, 3.16) vs Drew Pomeranz, LHP (11.49, 2.87, 4.60, 3.13, 3.80), 6:10 PM CT

Despite the much discussed velocity strangeness this year, Arrieta has gotten great results. He's had bad luck with balls leaving the yard, and the rest of his peripherals are solid. If it's working, then it's working I guess.

I keep mixing up Pomeranz with Porcello. He had a rocky start to his career thanks to playing his first three seasons in Denver, but then was okay after moving to lower altitudes. The Padres flipped him to the Red Sox in the middle of last season and his numbers fell off drastically (aided by a spike in HR/FB), which may or may not have been due to an injury that the Padres failed to fully disclose. He's had two good and one not so good start so far on the year, and strikes me as a guy who will not go too deep into games.

Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (9.75, 3.00, 4.88, 3.43, 3.68) vs Steven Wright, KBP (4.58, 2.04, 8.66, 5.17, 4.43), 3:05 PM CT

I love watching knuckleballers pitch, just not against the Cubs. Wright has been crushed by opposing batters so far this year, including a four homer, eight run game against the Os where he failed to get out of the second. 

Sunday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (6.55, 3.68, 4.50, 4.44, 3.45) vs Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (11.42, 6.23, 3.12, 4.38, 4.28), 7:05 PM CT

Kyle looked inexplicably cooked to start the year, but seemed to settle into his mechanics and look more like the Cyle of old in his last start. The Cubs shook up the rotation to make sure that he pitches on regular rest, hoping that the rhythm of it helps keep his tenuous hold on whatever he found.

The best way to describe Rodriguez's stuff is that he tried to bean Machado three times in his last start, and somehow missed on all of them. He had much better control in the minors/the last two years in Boston, but not so far in the bigs this year.

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  1. Berselius is too lazy to login

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Schwarber (DH)
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Zobrist (LF)
    Russell
    Contreras
    Heyward
    Baez
    Almora

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  2. Perkins

    dmick89:
    Pretty sure he’s now allowed more home runs this year than in all of 2015 and he threw 230 innings that year.

    He’s over halfway there. 10 in all of 2015, and six so far in 2017.

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  3. Perkins

    uncle dave,

    He’s looked like 2014 Javy, minus the power. I’m not sure his defense is enough of an upgrade over Zobrist to justify putting him in there every day at this point. He needs to work some stuff out with his swing and plate discipline.

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  4. Perkins

    One of us would have almost as good a chance of reaching base as Javy does, even if we just stood there and didn’t swing at anything.

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  5. Perkins

    I’d have probably stuck with Montero over Szczur there. Even against a LHP. Also Schwarber is really slumping.

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  6. Perkins

    Rizzo the Rat:
    This home plate ump really hates Bryant.

    Making that call twice is the kind of thing that gets soccer referees beaten or murdered in other parts of the world. At least appeal to first base.

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  7. Author
    berselius

    This ended up a lot closer than I would have guessed, when I saw the Cubs down 5-1 with the sox having the bases juiced

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  8. Perkins

    berselius,

    Once again, the Cubs left a ton of RISP. I’d say they should have won it easily, but the pitching got them out of a bunch of jams, so the Red Sox could have easily scored a few more runs as well.

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  9. dmick89

    Perkins,

    They have too many guys in their lineup who aren’t hitting. Schwarber, Zobrist and Javy haven’t done a whole lot (or really really sucked in Javy’s case). Add in Jay and the pitcher and you’ve got a pretty shitty lineup so far this year though Jay has done pretty well so far. When two of your top four can’t hit too well, you’re not going to score too many runs. I expect both will hit, but they’re struggling in the early part of this season. I’m less convinced Javy will because he literally has no fucking clue if the pitch is a strike or a ball. All he sees is a pitch. They’re all the same to him. A slider that ends up three feet outside looks the same to him as a four-seamer up and in.

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  10. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I’m also not especially worried about Schwarber or Zobrist. Schwarber’s K% is higher than you’d like, but he’s still got a great eye and a ton of power. I expect him to adjust.

    I’m not sure what’s going on with Javy, but it seems like whatever changes he made to his approach in 2016 have completely disappeared. I haven’t taken a look at his swing itself, but since the World Series he’s swung with reckless abandon.

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  11. Berselius is too lazy to login

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Schwarber (dh)
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Zobrist
    Heyward
    Russell
    Montero
    Almora
    Jay (lf)

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  12. Berselius is too lazy to login

    The Cubs got through the first inning on less than 30 pitches, so this game feels like a success no matter what else happens.

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