Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (47-23) at Miami Marlins (38-34)

In Series Previews by berselius100 Comments

The Marlins have a winning record? Fuck the heck? Despite the Wei-Yin Chen signing most people were expecting them to be one of the many NL teams rebuilding this year, but once again they seem to have built a competitive team. Most importantly, a cheap competitive team. At the team level, they’re right around the league average at the plate and on the mound. The only big thing that jumps out is their defensive numbers, which rank third by UZR but seventh by DRS, and third overall by whatever fangraphs uses to give an overall defensive number.

Team Leaders

Cubs

Marlins

It is not surprising to see a single name dominating the Marlins batting leaderboards. It is pretty surprising that the name is not Giancarlo Stanton, who has a .211/.311/.427 line on the year and is barely above replacement level. He’s still getting walks (11.9% BB rate) but he just can’t seem to put the ball in play (33.7% K rate).

Pitching matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each starter.

Thursday: Jon Lester, LHP (9.03, 1.96, 2.06, 2.97, 3.04) vs Wei-Yin Chen, LHP (7.37, 2.16, 5.22, 4.74, 4.33), 6:10 PM CT

Chen’s strikeout and walk rates look reasonable to pretty good, but when batters actually make contact with the ball he’s getting crushed. He has given up 15 home runs in fourteen starts, though a relatively reasonable .303 BABIP. He hopes for his own sake that his HR/FB and LOB% numbers normalize, as he has an opt out following the second year of the surprising 5/80 contract he received from the Marlins this offseason. Given their past history, the Marlins are probably hoping he opts out too. He was pulled in the third inning of his last start after giving up six runs on seven hits and two walks with just one strikeout.

Friday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (8.25, 2.15, 2.94, 3.13, 3.56) vs Tom Koehler, RHP (7.50, 5.08, 3.92, 3.93, 4.13), 6:10 PM CT

Hendricks is coming off a very un-Hendricks-like performance, striking out twelve batters in six innings. The lack of walks was still very Hendricks-like at least. He’s come down to earth a little bit from his hot start, but not by much.

Koehler might have a future as a Wandy Rodriguez HOFer, but so far he’s failed to break past being a below average pitcher. It makes it no less frustrating when he pitches well against the Cubs. I keep thinking he’s a rookie, but he’s been starting regularly for the Marlins since 2013. He has seen an enormous spike in his walk rate this year, but a matching drop in his HR rate seems to have canceled it out. He shutout the Rockies for six innings in his last start, despite giving up six walks.

Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (9.29, 2.30, 2.78, 3.26, 3.30) vs Paul Clemens, RHP (3.60, 5.40, 5.40, 11.92, 5.34), 3:10 PM CT

The first impression you get from opening Clemens’s fangraphs page is row after row of minor league teams that he’s played for. It’s hard to believe that he has only been in five systems. When he debuted with the Astros in 2013 he was a decent enough prospect (#5 in the system that was rapidly rebuilding), but was pretty bad even by the standards of the 2013 Astros and spent all of last year getting knocked around in AAA, mostly as a reliever. That he’s starting at all speaks to the Marlins rotation depth. He gave up three homers, somehow all of them solo shots, in his Marlins debut earlier this week.

Sunday: Jason Hammel, RHP (7.41, 2.77, 2.55, 3.82, 3.95) vs Jose Fernandez, RHP (12.83, 2.77, 2.36, 2.04, 2.64), 12:10 PM CT

Jose Fernandez is good. Maybe the only reason the Marlins have a winning record is to make him feel less bad whenever his commercial that talks about how much he loves winning comes on.

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Comments

  1. cerulean

    I wouldn’t mind Vogelbach getting called up to spell Rizzo for a time during this stretch. His Ruthian-light bat at this level may really open up some eyes and inflate his value to prospective trade partners despite his Ruthian physique.

    I want them to be a little cautious with Rizzo’s back. Invent an injury for Grimm or something—an 8-man bullpen is excessive.

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  2. cerulean

    Reading into Montero’s comments—one’s frustration with one’s own body can seem like frustration toward everything. He is clearly not the same player he was last year and he knows it. I wouldn’t read much more into it.

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  4. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I don’t see Montero asking for a trade midseason, but it’s only natural for him to want to be the primary starter and that probably won’t the case for him again in Chicago. I think he will ask for a trade this offseason since I think he’s still one of the 30 best catchers in baseball and some team will want to use him as a starter. Also, I don’t think he’s of much use as a backup since his defense is below average to bad.

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  5. SK

    dmick89,

    I just don’t see how they can carry three catchers for much longer. Castillo got traded around this time last year, didn’t he? Contreras still probably needs a couple weeks to make sure he’s definitely up for good, but after that, it makes no sense to have both Montero and Ross start 20% of games.

    Unless they really want Montero to fulfill the Ross role next year.

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  6. dmick89

    SK,

    I could easily see that. If Contreras shows he can handle the job defensively, and so far
    I’ve not seen anything that says he can’t, there’s not much reason to carry three catchers. It really limits the bench and with eight relievers it’s already limited enough.

    I think Castillo was traded earlier in the season, but your point still stands.

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  11. Author
    berselius

    SK:
    dmick89,

    Forgot about Schwarber. So there were usually three catchers on the roster.

    True, but it’s not like Schwarber was going to be wearing a groove into the bench on days where he wasn’t catching

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  15. dmick89

    SK,

    I think the difference this time is that the Cubs actually think Contreras behind the plate on a regular basis is their best option. They’ve already said he’ll catch a couple times a week and that’s way more than they were willing to commit to with Schwarber last year.

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  16. cerulean

    So nobody wants to see Vogelbach called up? I want him to have the opportunity to do what Schwarber did last year just so Olney will stop with this Schwarber for Miller nonsense.

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  25. cerulean

    I would also like to see the Cubs be very aggressive in extending some of these youngs guys the way Castro and Rizzo were—Russell, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, Rondon, and Hendricks. I assume Bryant won’t take one at such a good value.

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  55. umbra

    I said, “You got any Barracloughs?”

    She said, “NO, WE’RE OUTTA BARRACLOUGHS!”

    I said, “You got any apple fritters?”

    She said, “Wait a minute, I’ll go check.”

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  62. cerulean

    umbra:
    As a bald man with a beard who sucks at throwing to first base, I really identify with Jon Lester.

    The Plan is working perfectly. We lumbersexuals are a very important demographic. (dying laughing)

    And…Cubs lose.

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  67. uncle dave

    Fuck this shit. We’re gonna sneak into the playoffs, lose in the first round, then have to watch some dogshit team like the Giants shit rainbows, go 99-6 in one-run games, and win another fucking world series they don’t deserve. Fuck it.

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  68. umbra

    Who the fuck gets a doctorate in film studies, specializing in blacksploitation and niche market films?

    Women I date, gang. Thanks, Internet!

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  85. cerulean

    uncle dave:
    Fuck this bullshit.That’s three of four games where they’ve left it on the table.

    I wasn’t expecting this kind of performance until the NLCS. Peaking early, methinks.

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  87. uncle dave

    cerulean,

    (dying laughing)

    I need to get off the ledge. But watching the Giants do so well right now even though they have fuck all to offer the world while we’re losing games with bullshit, penny-ante breaks is giving me bad flashbacks to 2014. The A’s were twice the team the Giants were, but we know how that ended up. Fuck it.

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  90. Rizzo the Rat

    The 1927 Yankees lost four straight games just once. Of course, they never lost their first baseman with a bad back.

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  91. cerulean

    Happ drew a walk in his first appearance (PH) for the Smokies. I expect he will start tomorrow instead of Gilderoy.

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  98. cerulean

    In one sequence, Cease located a 74mph curve and then hit 98mph with his fastball. The announcer said that the gun there was notoriously slow—take that with a grain of salt, 98 is good enough.

    7 strikeouts, 0 walks, 3 hits, 1 hit-by-pitch, 1 run allowed, earned, in 4 innings. He also had a pickoff erased by balking.

    Also, 5–0 GO–FO.

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