Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (78-45) @ San Diego Padres (53-71)

In Series Previews by dmick89104 Comments

This is a series the Cubs should dominate even on the road. The pitching matchups are quite friendly to the Cubs and they are by far a superior team. This probably means the Cubs will end up squeaking out only one win, but I’m going to predict a sweep by the Cubs. That’s not a bold prediction. The Cubs are such heavy favorites in each game it will be disappointing on some levels to win only two and horrible to win less than that.

Team Leaders

Cubs

Padres

Pitching matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each starter.

Monday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.58, 2.49, 2.86, 3.76, 3.25) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.70, 3.96, 5.20, 4.36, 4.70), 9:10 PM CT

We’ve said this before, but Lester’s peripherals aren’t all that great. His FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA thanks in large part to an increased home run rate. He’s given up 19 home runs this year in 148 innings. He gave up 16 in each of the last two seasons (219.2 IP in 2014 and 205 IP in 2015). His ERA is what it is largely because of his lower BABIP and much higher strand rate. It’s a bit concerning for the latter years of his contract, but his strikeout and walk rates are still really good.

The Cubs are still paying Edwin Jackson who is pretty much a terrible starting pitcher at this point in his career. He’s probably not much of a reliever either. The Padres acquired him in mid-July and put him in their rotation. He’s had a couple decent starts, but most of them have been mediocre to bad. In his last start he gave up 9 hits and 8 runs, along with 3 walks and only 3 strikeouts in just 4 innings against Tampa Bay. In his start before that he was really good (7 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks and 7 strikeouts vs. Pittsburgh). I’m hoping for something similar to his last start, but the Cubs have kind of sucked against the NL West so I’m not expecting it.

Tuesday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (8.45, 2.94, 2.43, 3.33, 4.34) vs Christian Friedrich, LHP, 9:10 PM CT

Arrieta’s walk rate and home run rate remain up from the previous couple of seasons with the Cubs, but he’s been quite a bit worse than last season. He’s coming off one of the most frustrating performances from a pitcher I can remember. His stuff was good against the Brewers, but his location was terrible. He walked 7 batters that game in 5.2 innings and struckout only 3. Just getting Jake to go more than 6 innings is considered a good start these days. Since June 5th, he’s done it only four times.

In his first season with the Padres, Friedrich has been less than impressive. In 17 starts he’s thrown 94 innings and struckout fewer than 7 batters per 9 while walking 3.54 per 9. He’s also given up a decent number of home runs. He’s coming off a strong start in Tampa Bay in which he threw 6.2 innings, gave up 6 hits and 2 runs. He walked 1 and struckout 5. He gave up 8 runs in the 13 combined innings in his previous two starts before that one.

Wednesday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.57, 2.81, 2.75, 4.08, 4.03) vs Paul Clemens, RHP (6.71, 4.32, 5.29, 5.18, 4.57), 2:40 PM CT

Last season Hendricks stranded only 68.9% of the runners that reached base. It was 78.5% the year before and it’s up to 81.6% this season. That’s not enough to explain the significant drop in runs allowed per 9 innings, but it explains some of it. Hendricks has just been good. He strikes out a lot more than people realize and has great control. His FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA so we should expect some regression from baseball’s ERA leader.

Clemens had pretty good control this season in the minor leagues, as well as last season. At the MLB level it’s been pretty terrible and he’s given up a ton of home runs. He also doesn’t strike many out. The Cubs should score a bunch of runs this game. They should score a bunch of runs this series.

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Comments

  5. umbra

    (dying laughing) speaking of hubris, the guy steals second, attempts third twice, and gets SOCKED in the face with the tag! Pow! Right in the kisser!

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  31. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I don’t mind Maddon turning some of these games into auditions for the postseason, especially given the untimely nature of injury. Get good soon, bullpen—but don’t peak too early.

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  32. cerulean

    Five Cubs are in the top 50 by fWAR in all of baseball. Schwarber is out. Soler missed two months. Heyward is having whatever the opposite of a career year is. Montero is a good-framing back problem. It has been a good strange—what I mean is this year has met my expectations in unexpected ways.

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  33. Author
    dmick89

    cerulean,

    I don’t mind it either. I don’t even mind pretending for awhile that Zastryzny could be a good setup man based on a couple of appearances. Why not since your other best options aren’t much better? That’s what annoys me. Zastryzny may be one of the better options at the moment. That sucks.

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  34. Rizzo the Rat

    cerulean,

    What’s frustrating is that this team could have been one of the greatest of all time if a few more players lived up to expectations. Of course, the number of teams thatcould have been among the greatest vastly outnumber the teams that actually perform on that level.

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  35. cerulean

    dmick89:
    cerulean,

    Why not since your other best options aren’t much better? That’s what annoys me. Zastryzny may be one of the better options at the moment. That sucks.

    Yes and no. The other options are more of a known quantity and likely better. In a very small sample, Rob Zombie (because who else would you mean by Rob Z) is striking out a ton and walking a fair share with low velocity and great control. Yeah. Plus, he has only retired one of the four righties he’s faced. I can see him in a LOOGY role.

    Ultimately, Grimm and Edwards are better, Wood and Cahill and Montgomery are probably better, but Strop and Rondon are definitely better. Figuring out where he sits in the pecking order at this moment only sucks because of injuries hurting their depth (more long relief on the one side and losing two from the late innings on the other).

    {Shrug emoji plus Dusty Baker chewing on a toothpick}

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  40. Edwin

    I was bummed Edwin Jackson didn’t have a good game against the Cubs, but I got a couple nice German stone beer mugs and a sausage making KitchenAide attachment last night, so life’s been good to me so far.

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  41. Edwin

    I also doubt the Cubs get as good of starting pitching performances next season, or that the bench will be as productive. Cubs have gotten 1.5 WAR from TLS and Matt Szczur in 284 PA. Baez will still be an awesome bench/depth piece, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a step back at the plate.

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  43. cerulean

    josh:
    dmick89,

    Heyward to center and he takes a step forward?

    It’s hard to see him being much worse at the plate. I think the best case scenario from here on out is that his defense remains stellar and his bats picks up as his range eventually declines.

    Does anybody foresee a way he exercises his options with less than a .330 wOBA? Even with a .350 wOBA, he might not get a better deal than what he has unless the D-bags get so irrational that they accidentally make a smart move.

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  45. cerulean

    dmick89:
    They’ll lose Dexter Fowler and he’ll be replaced by someone who is probably closer to replacement level than anything else.

    I don’t see that at all. Heyward and Almora are excellent defensively and can be league average with the bat. Schwarber and Soler may be a step up from butchers in the field, but those bats everyday, or especially in a slight platoon situation…that’s power with high not-making-outs skills. Szczur is proving to be an excellent 4th outfielder. I can see Coghlan back on an exceptional deal that makes him a valuable depth piece. And this is not including Contreras’ or Bryant’s or Zobrist’s versatility that the likes of Baez and La Stella afford. Plus Jimenez, Happ, and others are waiting in the wings.

    That said, I would like to see the trade of Soler or Baez for an ace—I would prefer Soler just because Baez defensive highlights are so damn fun and he still does some of those great moonshots that Soler does, even if he doesn’t have the elite, stoic patience.

    I am also on board trading both Soler and Almora and re-signing Fowler, if for no other reason than him being a good luck charm.

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  46. cerulean

    cerulean,

    This goes back to the reason for my reasonably unreasonable preseason prediction of 105 wins. The depth is astounding, astonishingly so. What position player has failed to contribute? Even Heyward is on pace for a league average number of wins.

    Baez, Soler, Contreras, La Stella, Szczur, Almora—all of these players were busts at some point. And now they have all hit, literally and figuratively. And there is more. It defies belief, the lucky bastards.

    (It seems like more position players have hit in the past few years that debuted with the Cubs than in my entire lifetime for this team.)

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  47. josh

    Lester called Quality Starts a made up stat. Unlike the other stats, which were given to us by the gods.

    Not that I’m defending quality starts.

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  48. Rizzo the Rat

    “Quality starts” has an arbitrariness to it that, say, “runs allowed” and “innings pitched” don’t.

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  49. Author
    dmick89

    I will be very surprised if Almora can manage a wRC+ of 80 or higher over a full season. I’d happily trade him and Soler for pitching. Gonna take more than that though.

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  52. Marc

    While the Cubs should win all three, this is baseball where anything can happen, and there would be no shame in winning 2 out of 3.

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  53. Author
    dmick89

    Marc:
    While the Cubs should win all three, this is baseball where anything can happen, and there would be no shame in winning 2 out of 3.

    Of course. The Cubs could get swept and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising. It happens. Still, I think 2 of 3 is what the Cubs feel they should absolutely do in this series. The Padres weren’t good before they traded away most of their rotation. They’re worse now.

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  55. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Rizzo the Rat:
    josh,

    Yeah, I think an outfield of Heyward/Soler/Schwarber/Bryant has a lot of upside (and a lot of risk, obviously).

    A 4 man outfield would seem to create a lot of upside.

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  58. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    uncle dave:
    Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,

    16″ beer league or GTFO

    Umpire: Okay, let’s go over the ground rules.
    You can’t leave first until you chug a beer.
    Any man scoring has to chug a beer.
    You have to chug a beer at the top of all odd-numbered innings.
    Oh, and the fourth inning is the beer inning.
    Chief Wiggum: [in baseball uniform] Hey, we know how to play softball.

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  74. cerulean

    Apparently, Kris Bryant has only drawn one walk in his last 27 plate appearances. Fortunately for him, you can’t walk to the Hall of Fame. Unless you live nearby, maybe.

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  91. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Bryant just missed number 34.

    The days when we all openly wondered whether he would be very good at the MLB level seem rather foolish in retrospect.

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