Series Preview: Cubs (55-36) vs. Mets (49-42) (7/18-7/20)

In Uncategorized by myles52 Comments

I hate these fuckin’ Mets. Relevant passage:

“HATE. LET ME TELL YOU HOW MUCH I’VE COME TO HATE YOU SINCE I BEGAN TO LIVE. THERE ARE 387.44 MILLION MILES OF PRINTED CIRCUITS IN WAFER THIN LAYERS THAT FILL MY COMPLEX. IF THE WORD HATE WAS ENGRAVED ON EACH NANOANGSTROM OF THOSE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF MILES IT WOULD NOT EQUAL ONE ONE-BILLIONTH OF THE HATE I FEEL FOR HUMANS AT THIS MICRO-INSTANT FOR YOU. HATE. HATE.”

-Harlan Ellison, I Have No Mouth And I Must Scream

Team Leaders

Cubs

Mets

  • OBP:  Yoenis Cespedes (.370)
  • ISO: Cespedes (.278)
  • HR: Cespedes (21)
  • R+RBI: Cespedes (99)
  • wRC+: Cespedes (154)
  • BSR: Curtis Granderson (1.1)
  • SP K/9: Noah Syndergaard (10.90)
  • SP BB/9: Thor (1.53)
  • SP FIP: Thor (2.04)
  • RP K/9: Addison Reed (11.09)
  • RP BB/9: Reed (1.88)
  • RP FIP: Reed (2.23)
  • WAR: Thor (4.0)

Pitching matchups

FIP, Myles’ arbitrary 1-10 rating (with 10 being the best) listed for each pitcher

Steven Matz (3.42, 5.28) vs Jon Lester (3.95, 6.50)

If you look up “#3 starter” in the baseball Almanac, you’d see a picture of Steven Matz. I really like him, though he has no real defining traits (maybe his very good walk rate); he’s just a little better than average at everything. I’d like Matz to be a Cub one day.

Lester has had the last few starts get away from him, but before that he was the Cubs’ best pitcher by a mile. Even with the duds, he’s had a good year. The only real issue is HR/FB%. They have been FLYING out of the yard this year. It seems like he’s been favoring the fastball in high-leverage spots, and the numbers say he’s been using it a lot more than he has in the past 8 years. That surprises me, because his fastball is only so useful when not set-up by the off-speed stuff. Keep an eye on his fastball usage tonight.

Noah Syndergaard (2.04, 9.37) vs Jake Arrieta (3.04, 6.14)

Thor is the 2nd best pitcher in the majors and it is NOT close. There’s an argument for Jose Fernandez (though he walks way too many) and the “arm-owie” factor is always there, but holy hell can he just dominate a game unlike any other (in the non-Kershaw league).

Arrieta has had a pretty low-key year. Sure, he’s still among the game’s best. He’s just not a Cy candidate – not particularly close this year, either. The walks are just too high this year, which extends his innings, which gets him out of games earlier. Flyballs are also finding the way out of the park, and that’s not good.

That said, if Arrieta fixes that, he’s awesome. Make Arrieta Great Again. (ducks)

Bartolo Colon (4.03, 4.31) vs Kyle Hendricks (3.45, 5.16)

I don’t care what you think – I don’t like Bartolo Colon. His “elder statesman” schtick has been laid on so thick that he’s crossed over back into grating. This year, he’s had a pretty high number of home runs allowed this year, and he’s still at just 16.1% K rate. He’s also at a huge number of line drives. Basically, Colon has been crazy hit-lucky this season and he isn’t actually that good.

Hendricks has actually also been lucky. My proprietary, not-at-all-just-K/9-subtracted-by-BB/9 ranking reflects that. Ask yourself this question: does a .241 BABIP for Hendricks feel right to you? Not to me. His walks are up a bit, his strikeouts are down a bit, and his step forward this year is almost all just a huge BABIP drop brought on my a dramatic increase in Soft%. If he can keep up the soft contact, he’s an All-Star. If not, he’s still useful, just as a back-end innings eater.

There’s also a dirty little secret; batters just don’t swing at pitches in the zone. It’s almost mind-boggling; he nearly leads the league in that stat. Perhaps the most Maddux stat he has.

Will the Cubs Win?

trump shrug

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Comments

  11. Rizzo the Rat

    Wasn’t a fan of Almora’s trying to bunt with a runner on second and the eighth and ninth hitters coming up.

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  16. umbra

    Who the fuck is buying all these mattresses? Casper commercial followed by a FirmMattress commercial followed by a ghost bed commercial.

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  26. Mucker

    If the Cubs were to really think about trading Schwarber, what should the return be? He’s a middle of the order bat that should be able to play LF with 5 years of control. I’ve read reports that a Miller for Schwarber straight up trade is good value and I’m thinking to myself that is the worst trade. I wouldn’t trade Schwarber unless it gets a top of rotation starter and a high upside bat at a minimum. Am I overvaluing Schwarber?

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  28. Perkins

    Mucker:
    If the Cubs were to really think about trading Schwarber, what should the return be?He’s a middle of the order bat that should be able to play LF with 5 years of control.I’ve read reports that a Miller for Schwarber straight up trade is good value and I’m thinking to myself that is the worst trade.I wouldn’t trade Schwarber unless it gets a top of rotation starter and a high upside bat at a minimum.Am I overvaluing Schwarber?

    I’d say that’s a fair expectation, though the high upside prospect may be at a lower level (high A or maybe AA). That might still be overvaluing Schwarber, but it’s reasonable to value him more highly than an elite reliever.

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  30. dmick89

    Mucker: I wouldn’t trade Schwarber unless it gets a top of rotation starter and a high upside bat at a minimum. Am I overvaluing Schwarber?

    I imagine there’s some differing opinions of how much Schwarber is worth. If you think he’s a terrible fielding left fielder who probably won’t hit much or at all against lefties, he’s worth a lot less than if you’re like me and think his defense will improve and that given the chance he will eventually hit lefties. Even if you’re on the low side, and I think there’s always reason to be skeptical of a young, mostly unproven talent, he’s worth more than Andrew Miller. That’s what makes it such a terrible trade idea.

    There’s probably more reason now to be a bit skeptical of his defense improving. He’s young so he should get back to nearly 100% after the ACL, but it’s a major injury that will probably have an impact at least in the short term. Maybe long term. I’m usually pretty skeptical of prospects as you all know. I’m not the least bit so when it comes to Schwarber. I think the guy has more athletic ability than he’s been given credit. I think he has as much raw power as anyone in the game and maybe anyone in the last 10 years. I think he can hit for a good average, get on base at a high rate and if he’s given the opportunity, I see no reason he won’t lefties decently.

    I wouldn’t trade Schwarber. I’m sure there is some ridiculously Cubs-favored trade that could be thought of that would get me to pull the trigger, but realistically, I can’t think of a single trade that would make me think it’s a good value to the Cubs.

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  31. JonKneeV

    dmick89,

    Ya. He has the ceiling of the best bat in the majors. The in-game power is just absurd and the threat alone will get him on base. If he becomes a more well-rounded hitter, look out.

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  33. dmick89

    JonKneeV: He has the ceiling of the best bat in the majors.

    This. I felt that the Cubs lost their best bat when Schwarber went down. Maybe not in 2016, but I’m pretty sure he’d have hit as many or more home runs than any of the other Cubs players. That power he has is ridiculous. I have no idea what a fair trade would be. I can’t imagine one ever being offered. All I know is that Schwarber for a reliever, or even two relievers (Chapman and Miller) is laughable.

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  34. umbra

    Unless, you know, Schwarber’s knee never heals and he never sees another MLB at-bat. Then trading him for Chapman and Miller is a good deal.

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  38. Mucker

    dmick89,

    I think the Cubs are probably more likely shopping Vogelbach, McKinney, Candelario types than Schwarber. I think Schwarber has more value to the Cubs then he does to somebody willing to trade for him so I don’t think the Cubs trade him. But if they do, they better get more than a RP for him.

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  39. Edwin

    I’m a little less high on Schwarber’s bat. I think it’s very good, but I want to see if he can get his contact % up just a little bit.

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  44. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Myles Handley:
    I have Rizzo and Bryant as both better hitters than Schwarber. The gap is small but there. Rizzo and Bryant are more interchangeable.

    Next year it’ll be Schwarbryzzo, Inc. commercials

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  48. dmick89

    Edwin:
    I’d take Contreras, Rizzo, and Bryant as better hitters over Schwarber.

    The fact that Schwarber will have the platoon advantage significantly more than Contreras makes it difficult for me to believe he’s a better hitter. What Schwarber was doing in the minors at a higher level and at a younger age was even more impressive than what Contreras did. And Schwarber did it at the MLB level too. I can see arguments for Rizzo and/or Bryant, but I just have a hard time seeing as how Contreras is better. More valuable? Yeah, I’d put Contreras behind only Bryant in terms of value.

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  49. dmick89

    Myles,

    There’s going to be a server update and some optimizations done on the 27th at around 3 AM so I’m going to wait to see if those resolve this issue. Please let me know if it continues.

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  50. dmick89

    What Schwarber did last season was probably more impressive than what even Kris Bryant did at the plate. Schwarber was a year younger and had less time in the minor leagues. He had a better walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher ISO and roughly the same wOBA despite a significantly lower BABIP.

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  51. dmick89

    Add in playoff stats to last season’s numbers and Schwarber’s offensive numbers would have been better overall than Bryant’s and maybe even Rizzo’s. Schwarber’s power can’t be overstated in my opinion. Including the playoffs, he had nearly as many home runs as Kris Bryant in half as many plate appearances.

    I just can’t wait to watch him swing a bat again next year.

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