Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (33-32) @ Chicago Cubs (44-20)

In Uncategorized by myles158 Comments

The Cubs stand ready with their boots on Pittsburgh’s neck. A Cubs sweep and the Pirates’ divisional chances are essentially over. Pittsburgh has played poorly over the past few weeks while the Cubs suddenly look merely very good (as opposed to historically great). The Cubs welcome the Pirates for three games in this one.

Cubs (100 PA)

 

Pirates (100 PA)

  • OBP: Matt Joyce (.423)
  • ISO: Jung-Ho Kang (.321)
  • HR: (three players) (9)
  • R+RBI: Gregory Polanco (83)
  • wRC+: Joyce (173)
  • BSR: Starling Marte (3.8)
  • SP K/9: Juan Nicasio (9.15)
  • SP BB/9: Gerrit Cole (2.63)
  • SP FIP: Cole (3.06)
  • RP K/9:  Neftali Feliz (10.65)
  • RP BB/9: Feliz (1.90)
  • RP FIP: Andrew Schugel (2.86)
  • WAR: Polanco (2.5)

Friday’s Probables (1:20 PM) (ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, Fastball velocity)

Francisco Liriano (4.92, 5.52, 4.46, 9.04, 5.45, 92.3) vs. Jake Arrieta (1.89, 2.59, 3.12, 9.31, 2.90, 94.1)

There was a nice little run when Liriano was able to keep his walks in check. When that happens, Liriano is a very good pitcher, maybe even a #1 starter. He certainly hasn’t been this year. The issue with these types of pitchers is that you know they have the stuff to be dominant, so if you get them on the wrong day, you can have a really tough time. All things considered, I’m not especially worried about him. He also is going against Jake from State Farm, who is about as dominant as last year. In my hot take land, I think Arrieta is at the bottom of the “ace” category, but that’s still an ace. Something to watch for: Arrieta usually throws around 28% cutters, but this year it’s down to 20%. I don’t know if that’s a weather-related decision or what, but his pitch mix is as Baltimore-esque as it has been since he arrived.

Saturday’s Probables (7:15 PM)

Jonathon Niese (4.60, 5.21, 4.24, 6.37, 2.95, 89.2) vs. Jon Lester (1.89, 2.85, 3.18, 8.93, 1.79, 92.0)

Jon Niese is what every Cubs pitching prospect would look like in the majors. He doesn’t strike anyone out, can’t overpower anyone, and because of those two things, he walks a good amount of people despite decent control. Niese isn’t throwing his curveball that often this year, instead relying on a 89 mph fastball to put people away. For some reason, no one is running on Lester. Good for him! He’s having the best season of his career right now, though he’s clearly been sequence-lucky. I think he’s had demonstrably better control this year than last, and the familiarity with the National League helps him be the team’s second #1 starter.

Sunday’s Probables (7:08 PM)

Jameson Taillon [2 starts] (1.93, 3.78, 3.67, 5.14, 1.93, 94.9) vs. Kyle Hendricks (3.05, 3.30, 3.64, 7.45, 2.32, 87.3)

I’ve seen Taillon in person (AAA). He looked impossible to hit. I’m really looking forward to this game. He features two main pitches: a huge fastball and a huge curveball. Always love these types of pitchers. Hendricks has been steady as usual. Hope he has his change working in this one; anecdotally, it seems to desert him last start.

 

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  1. Rizzo the Rat

    Weird for Bryant to be getting a breather against a southpaw (who has a significant platoon split).

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  2. Author
    myles

    Jason:
    Arrieta at the bottom of the ace category? That must be a tight category.

    There are, at any point, between 4-8 aces or so. Kershaw, Sale, Arrieta, Scherzer, Hernandez, Greinke right now. Price, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Cueto have arguments.

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  3. Author
    myles

    And Felix is just about ready to drop out, but for half a decade he was one of the 2 best pitchers in baseball and that’s hard to shake.

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  4. Millertime

    myles: There are, at any point, between 4-8 aces or so. Kershaw, Sale, Arrieta, Scherzer, Hernandez, Greinke right now. Price, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Cueto have arguments.

    Kind of like how there’s always 2 Sith lords, a Master and Apprentice.

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  5. cerulean

    myles: There are, at any point, between 4-8 aces or so. Kershaw, Sale, Arrieta, Scherzer, Fernandez, Greinke right now. Price, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Cueto have arguments.

    Fixed.

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  6. cerulean

    Myles Handley:
    I want to empirically define an ace. I feel like I did before but don’t remember.

    My definition I just made up is a bit broader because “ace” should be synonymous with #1:

    Has a WHIP near 1.000 than 1.100 with at least six more strikeouts than walks per nine averaging at least 6 innings per start over the last 300 innings.

    If we want to get into perennial Cy Young candidate, I think that’s a different metric more in line with the list you gave.

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  7. umbra

    What makes us think pitching talent is normally distributed, even among a population of people who are already long-tail physical freaks?

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  8. Author
    myles

    A quick, easy one: take the last 4 years and weight them 4-3-2-1, most recent first. They get the points if they fit at least 2 of the 3 criteria (and pitched at least 170 innings in that year):

    Finished 3rd or better in Cy Young voting
    Were in the top 10 in their respective league in K% without being worse than league average or worse in BB%
    Had 5 or games of 70+ in Game Score

    And anything 6 or above is an ace.

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  9. dmick89

    I think the problem with the word ace is that it becomes a small hall, large hall kind of debate. I’m a large hall person. I see no reason that ace should be defined so narrowly. I’d say there are 20-30 aces in MLB at any given time and I don’t think it always has the same group of people. I think the top 5 is mostly safe, at least within a season anyway, but the bottom 5 is likely a rotating group that includes at least 10 different pitchers.

    Rather than say Arrieta is at the bottom of the ace group, which can be defined 100 different ways, I’d rather just say that Arrieta is safely among the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. He’s probably within the top 5.

    Take Jon Lester as an example. I’d not include him among the aces last season, but would in 2014 and would certainly include him there in 2016.

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  10. dmick89

    josh,

    (dying laughing), he’s also probably not. i think his defense kind of sucks regardless off what the metrics say. I’m pretty sure they’re getting his defense wrong (assuming they are positive because everyone seems to say he’s good when he’s pretty bad).

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  11. dmick89

    I think you’d have to use future years too to determine ace in a statical manner.

    http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/when-did-max-scherzers-talent-level-exceed-that-of-justin-verlander

    There’s no question that in the middle of 2013, Scherzer was already more talented than Verlander. We just didn’t know it at the time. There’s no question that in the middle of 2012, Verlander was more talented. So, somewhere near the end of 2012 or start of 2013 is when they criss-crossed in talent levels.

    In the comments, after linking to a couple other articles, Tango also says this, which is without a doubt true.

    The point of this thread is that we’re always about one year, maybe two years, behind knowing that a change in talent level has occurred, if we rely on the performance numbers.

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  12. dmick89

    josh,

    No, definitely not. He’s a very good player. I just think he’s not only quite a bit worse defensively than the metrics say, but actually a bad fielder.

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  13. josh

    dmick89,

    Yeah, I agree. He also doesn’t strike me as a power hitter, but I guess he does all right. I’m looking at last season where it looks like most of his value was… baserunning?

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  14. dmick89

    Millertime,

    So it looks like the issue with waiting to call him up had more to do with his overall defense, which isn’t surprising given how long he’s been behind the plate. Maybe the fluency thing was a small part of it, but obviously not a big deal.

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  15. Millertime

    Strikeouts and pop-ups which don’t leave the infield, sliders and change-ups thrown on a string. These are a few of my favorite things.

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  16. Millertime

    dmick89:
    Millertime,

    So it looks like the issue with waiting to call him up had more to do with his overall defense, which isn’t surprising given how long he’s been behind the plate. Maybe the fluency thing was a small part of it, but obviously not a big deal.

    It makes way more sense.

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  17. dmick89

    Millertime,

    Yeah, because to believe that was the primary reason for not calling him up would require you to believe there was a colossal fuck up by the organization to not spend the last few offseasons working on it.

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  18. Millertime

    dmick89:
    Millertime,

    Yeah, because to believe that was the primary reason for not calling him up would require you to believe there was a colossal fuck up by the organization to not spend the last few offseasons working on it.

    It also interferes with the Contreras is a plus defender narrative.

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  19. dmick89

    Millertime,

    Good point, though I think given how optimistic Cubs fans have become, any player who could possibly be projected to be above average at something is suddenly well above average it. It’s kind of amazing at how poorly the Cubs beat writers still cover this organization. You’d think they’d be interested in reporting on some of this and trying to be accurate .

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  20. dmick89

    I had a really good fastball when I was 10 years old. Pretty good 12-6 curve too. Tell that to Cubs fans and then tell them I was drafted in the 29th round this year and suddenly I’d be an all-star caliber steal the Cubs front office discovered all on their own. My 65 mph fastball would get obliterated in the minors leagues, but hey, I once showed promise with the fastball so I’m still well above average.

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  21. Millertime

    dmick89,

    You’d be part of this year’s genious drafting strategy of drafting players who were good at one point, and might be so again. Bonus points if you never strike anyone out and have already dealt with injuries.

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  22. dmick89

    Millertime,

    It’s doubtful I could strike anyone out and I’m still dealing with a pinched nerve in my neck that causes pain in my shoulders so we’re good. I should have entered the draft this year. Next year though.

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  23. Millertime

    I’m going to Europe on Monday. I figure the best way to prepare is to listen to the Sound of Music soundtrack.

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  24. Millertime

    Baez should have just had the red light. Lirianio hasn’t been close to the zone the past inning or two.

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  25. Millertime

    The Pirates hit a lot of batters, which I don’t mind. Pitching inside is solid strategy, and if it works, then teams should be doing it as much as possible. The problem is whenever the Pirate hitters get hit by a pitch, they immeadiately take it personally and start up a bean ball war.

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  26. dmick89

    Millertime: The problem is whenever the Pirate hitters get hit by a pitch, they immeadiately take it personally and start up a bean ball war.

    Yeah, they’re terrible. They learned from Tony La Russa or something. Even worse than the Cardinals, they act like victims.

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  27. uncle dave

    I’m listening to the game so I didn’t have the chance to see, but did the Pirates come to the plate without bats last inning?

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  28. Millertime

    Can Carlos Zambrano come back to the team for a visit yet, or is he still on the black list with Sosa?

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  29. dmick89

    uncle dave,

    It seemed like once they got the bases loaded, they didn’t have much interest in trying to hit the ball. Jake fell behind so it was hard to tell, but even with 2 strikes, they looked more curious about whether or not they could take another walk.

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  30. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Millertime:
    I’m going to Europe on Monday.I figure the best way to prepare is to listen to the Sound of Music soundtrack.

    No, you need to listen to the band Europe. Preferably while microwaving a burrito.

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  31. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    uncle dave:
    EnricoPallazzo,

    There has been an unusual amount of musical theatre referenced here today.(I don’t consider fart noises musical theatre, but YMMV.)

    I believe there’s a Blazing Saddles musical in the works, so fart noises will soon be musical theatre.

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  32. uncle dave

    I’m listening on the radio today, so can someone please let me know if there’s more than one store in Chicago that sells apples? If not, those would be some expensive apples.

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  33. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    uncle dave:
    I’m listening on the radio today, so can someone please let me know if there’s more than one store in Chicago that sells apples?If not, those would be some expensive apples.

    I’m more concerned about Ron Coomer’s sleeping troubles. Thank god he found a good pillow.

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  34. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    dmick89:
    uncle dave,

    Do they still have those? Maybe they have a corn dog with an apple these days.

    I like the apples that are individually wrapped in celophane at super shitty motels that feature “free breakfast and ESPN!”

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  35. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    I was more the vending machine sandwich type of guy. I went into a 7-11 for ice the other day and basically had to keep my eyes to the floor so as to not lose all faith in humanity, so I can’t tell you if they have old deli sandwiches anymore.

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  36. dmick89

    Wouldn’t Cahill’s PA been a great way to get Contreras into the game? Or any other player on the bench that’s a better hitter than a relief pitcher.

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  37. Rizzo the Rat

    I’m sort of glad I didn’t watch this one. Jake’s occasional wild spells drive me up the wall.

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  38. cerulean

    Millertime:
    How do you solve a pitch from Arrieta? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?

    Fixed. (Got to get the meter right.)

    Listening to this game, I was struck with an interesting idea for determining an ace: K-rate with runners in scoring position.

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  39. cerulean

    Rice Cube:
    The Cardinals need to lose on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

    Losing now is good too, but since they are so far back, it’s more like a “nice to have” than a “need”.

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  40. Rizzo the Rat

    Been looking through the highlights. I love how Rizzo ran through second base to give the run a chance to score. I’ve seem him try that before, but I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen that play work.

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  41. cerulean

    The Mariners and Mets have faded fast, falling to 6.5 and 5.5 back. The AL East is a three-horse race and the AL Central a four-horse race—all the other divisions leaders have five games on second place.

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  42. SK

    Zambrano is on the black list but Sosa has been elevated to the brown list. This is based on sammy getting an engraved paving stone along with other Cubs legends like Santo, Wilson, Sutcliffe and Yosh Kawano.

    Big Z not included.

    Is he worthy of a paving stone? They had ones for Grace, Buckner, Beckert etc I think so.

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  43. SK

    OVCON2016 was a great success despite attendance being down by 60%.

    Aisle 424 is a fantastic section to watch a game even if he didn’t show up this year.

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  44. Rice Cube

    SK,

    I still see Big Z jerseys around, I think he did enough to warrant recognition but he didn’t leave on the best of terms as we all know. Maybe that ultimately doesn’t matter.

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  45. dmick89

    I opened the At Bat app to check out the scoreboard. I wanted to see if the Cardinals and Pirates were winning. This flu I had apparently gave me amnesia because I completely forgot the Cubs and Pirates were playing and I even watched the game yesterday.

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