Well, here we are at last. I’m still not sure which team I would rather the Cubs have faced – the Giants are the better team on paper but have been kind of a train wreck since the all-star break. Overall their offense was fourth in the NL by wRC+, and they hit 69 fewer homers than the Cubs this year (nice). Defensively, they were second in the NL behind the Cubs and both their starting staff and bullpen were middle-ish of the pack. And of course, any playoff team with Bumgarner on the roster is going to be dangerous.
Team Leaders
Giants
- OBP: Brandon Belt (.394)
- ISO: Belt (.199)
- HR: Belt (17)
- R+RBI: Buster Posey (162)
- wRC+: Belt (138)
- BSR: Brandon Crawford (3.2)
- Defense: Crawford (26.3)
- SP K/9: Madison Bumgarner (9.97)
- SP BB/9: Johnny Cueto (1.84)
- SP FIP: Cueto (2.96)
- RP K/9: Will Smith (12.76)
- RP BB/9: Derek Law (1.47)
- RP FIP: Smith (1.78)
- WAR: Crawford (5.6)
Cubs
- OBP: Dexter Fowler (.393)
- ISO: Kris Bryant (.262)
- HR: Bryant (39)
- R+RBI: Bryant (223)
- wRC+: Bryant (149)
- BSR: Bryant (6.8)
- Defense: Addison Russell (22.5)
- SP K/9: Jon Lester (8.75)
- SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (2.06)
- SP FIP: Hendricks (3.20)
- RP K/9: Aroldis Chapman (15.53)
- RP BB/9: Hector Rondon (1.41)
- RP FIP: Chapman (0.82)
- WAR: Bryant (8.4)
Pitching Matchups
K%, BB%, ERA, FIP listed for each pitcher.
Game 1: Johnny Cueto, RHP (22.5%, 5,1%, 2.79, 2.96) vs Jon Lester, LHP (24.8%, 6.5%, 2.44, 3.41), 8:00 PM CT
Cueto has always been a pitcher that I give too little credit to. He posted four straight seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA with the Reds before slipping a bit ERA-wise in his final season before hitting free agency. His peripherals were still very solid though, and he’s pitched even better in his first season of his 6/130 deal with the Giants. He’s got an opt-out after year two, and given how he performed in year one he’s going to get an even bigger payday next offseason. He’s thrown slightly more sliders this year and got better results on them, but for the most part his pitch mix is more or less the same. Cueto pitched seven innings and allowed just one run in his lone outing against the Cubs this year, a few weeks back in early September. You might remember that one as the Jason Heyward Game.
Lester took a jump forward ERA wise and has seemed more comfortable on the mound this year. Or really, since midway through last year. Having the best defense in baseball behind you sure helps with that whole comfortable-feeling thing. He saw a slight bump in his walk rate this year but for the most part the peripherals are right in line with the past few seasons. As far as pfx numbers go, he’s seen a huge increase in effectiveness from both his four-seam fastball and cutter. For what little it’s worth, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Giants back on Sep 2, which was broken up by a solo shot by Hunter Pence. He went on to complete the game in a 2-1 win for the Cubs. He also got knocked out in the third inning against the Giants back in early May, allowing five runs in exchange for eight outs before Joe pulled the plug.
Game 2: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (20.1%, 6.5%, 3.81, 3.85) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (22.8%, 5.9%, 2.13, 3.20), 7:00 PM CT
This is kind of a fun one narrative-wise: two Cubs pitchers who both kind of became front-line pitchers out of nowhere. Hendricks of course was the higher floor guy, but we saw Samardzija start somewhere around the fourth sub-basement. Shark was pretty terrible in his one year stint with the White Sox, but turned things around a bit after signing with the Giants. FIP-wise, his top three seasons as a starter are all behind Hendricks’ top three seasons. As incredible as his splitter was in his breakout 2012 season, it’s been pretty below average since and he throws it a lot less often. He faced the Cubs back on Sep. 1 and was chased after giving up three runs in four innings and 87 pitches.
I don’t know what other superlatives to say about Hendricks’ season. Some pod I was listening to recently mentioned that he pretty much hit his 99th percentile projection this year, but not a lot has changed peripherals wise other than he’s pitching more innings per start. Oh, and his changeup was obscenely good this year. I’m too lazy to sort through weak contact numbers, but that is his jam. Hendricks faced the Giants back in May and gave up just an RBI double to Bumgarner in 5.1 innings, which ended up being the only run scored by either team.
Game 3: Madison Bumgarner, RHP (27.5%, 5.9%, 2.74, 3.24) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (23.9%, 9.6%, 3.10, 3.52), TBA
Thank the maker that the Giants can only start this guy once in the series, unless he does Bumgarner things and tries to pitch on two days rest or something. Syndergaard outpitched him while he was in the game, but Bumgarner just keeps on going and keeps teams away from the shaky Giants pen. He faced the Cubs twice this year and looked relatively mortal, “only” striking out sixteen batters in his 13.2 innings of work. The Cubs got to him for a few runs in the September start, which was also a matchup vs Arrieta. Arrieta drove in one of the runs himself, the other was a sac fly by Baez after Bumgarner seemed to run out of gas in the sixth.
Arrieta wasn’t so shabby himself in his two starts, striking out fifteen Giants in thirteen innings and allowing four runs (three earned). He also kept his walks down in the two starts. His walk rate bounced back up in a big way this year, but he still throws a gem every few starts. He’ll certainly have the intensity level working for him in this start, though we’ll have to see if it impacts his performance as positively as it did in the opposite direction in his spring trainingesque final regular season outing.
Game 4: Matt Moore?, RHP (21.2%, 8.6%, 4.08, 4.17) vs John Lackey, RHP (24.1%, 7.1%, 3.35, 3.81), TBA
I’m guessing Moore would get the nod here, though I would not be surprised if this was Cueto on three day’s rest. Moore was pretty average in his first relatively full seasons as a starter in Tampa before dealing with a host of injury problems in the next two seasons. He had bounced back to his averageish stats this year before being traded to the Giants. Since then he’s posted the exact same ERA but also seen spikes in both his strikeout and walk rate. Starter who throws lots of pitches and a shaky bullpen behind him? The Cubs are on it. I hope.
The Cubs got their money’s worth out of Lackey this year, even with the DL stint. I’m eating my words at complaining about this signing for sure. I guess that’s better than Lackey eating my arm though. It’s easy to make the jokes, especially because there isn’t much in particular to say about Lackey’s stats. He’s solidly above average, no stat jumps out at you the way that he might from a dark alley. Well, maybe one – his slider has been insanely good this year, tops in all of baseball by fangraphs pitch value stat. He went five uneventful innings against the Giants last month in his first start back from his DL stint, so you can read even less into that than you can from single game matchup stats.
Game 5: Probably Cueto v Lester again. Or Bumgarner could just start all five games.
No predictions to make here. I’m going to take a wait and see approach. The Cubs are the better team, but shit happens. 538 currently has the Cubs advancing to the next round two out of three times, which are about as good odds as you can get in a playoff series.
Comments
Someone on twitter (I think it was Cameron?) mentioned that the Cubs had a 16 game win lead on the Giants in the regular season, and teams are something like 11-1 in series against teams they had at least a +15 win advantage over (the outlier being the Yankees beating the Mariners). So some meaningless positivity there.
SitrickQuote Reply
If you believe in superstitions, it is an even numbered year and them “gints” always win (with Posey). They also won twice from the wild-card slot.
But then I am a life-long fan, remembering things such as Bobby’s “Shot Heard Round the World” and the 50¢ I won for the 1954 sweep. I was 14 and that 50¢ was twice my weekly allowance (double feature movies cost a dime) and my parents always wanted us out of the house on Sat afternoon.
Go Giants!
Ralph Jacobson
Ralph JacobsonQuote Reply
Pish; we’re Cubs fans
SKQuote Reply
I’m sticking with Cubs in 5, but I expect the Giants to throw Cueto out there in game 4 and Samardzija in game 5. If Bumgarner gets any meaningful amount of innings in game 5 (would not be surprising), I can easily see the Giants winning this series. If Bumgarner only gets the one game, I think it will be tough for them to win it.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have to agree with the Ivy Envy prediction: Cubs in four but they lose the last game (dying laughing).
That’s a sweep, gentlemen.
And Arrieta out-Bumgarner’s Bumgarner to clinch with a complete game shutout.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs Magic Number : 11
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Looks like Szczur was the odd man out.
SKQuote Reply
I kind of feel bad for Hammel. He had a pretty good first half to three quarters.
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Yeah, he had a really good season. Good problem to have, but I definitely feel bad for him.
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
I don’t know how you really choose between the options there. I guess who’s best off the bench? If there’s an injury, they can still replace the player right?
joshQuote Reply
I don’t feel bad for him because he pouts when he gets taken out of the game.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
The changing unwritten rules of baseball are allowing more and more emotions to be expressed by players. I guess there are still some emotions that should be kept for the clubhouse.
SKQuote Reply
josh,
I didn’t think he had a great shot to make the roster, but I also wonder if he is still hurt (if he was actually hurt at the end of the season). They have Montgomery that they can use in an emergency start, I guess.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
I can understand Hammel’s frustration at getting taken out of the game; he’s probably more frustrated with himself than with Joe or anyone else. What’s a pain in the ass is that he seems to express it as though he’s doing his job and doesn’t understand why he’s getting pulled, like there’s a huge disconnect between his reality and objective reality.
I’m sure it sucks to be the odd man out on such an uncommonly talented team. You always want to be able to take the ball, and he’ll probably feel at least some level of being on the outside if they win the World Series and he isn’t on the roster. And while he’s had a pretty good season, he also happens to be the least excellent of the five starting pitchers. Sometimes you can do your best and others are still better. Though on this team, I’m sure they’ll still vote him a whole playoff share.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Where’s the best place to go and watch highlights from last year’s wild card game and NLDS?
(I was going to say postseason, but you know)
SKQuote Reply
SK,
I think they have it archived on mlb.tv/MLB At Bat. I watched NLDS game 4 at some point in the offseason on that.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
They appear to be all over Youtube. I’m watching one now (with bad music for the audio), it was awesome seeing Starlin make the last putout in the WC game.
SKQuote Reply
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-of-the-cubs/
umbraQuote Reply
SKQuote Reply
I was hoping the Rangers’ luck wouldn’t run out until the World Series.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
SK,
Moises Alou approves.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rangers have 11 LOB. 11 hits, 2 BB, 1 run.
umbraQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist (LF)
Russell
Heyward
Baez
Ross
Lester
BerseliusQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/san-francisco-giants-team-preview/
mylesQuote Reply
Not using Baez at third with Lester on the mound? Huh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply