Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (60-54) at Chicago Cubs (71-41)

In Series Previews by berselius121 Comments

It sure is nice having that twelve game cushion. The Cardinals have been flailing a bit lately, even losing a series at home to the Braves, but still have the third-best run differential in the NL. They’re down a couple of key contributers, including Michael Wacha, out with shoulder inflammation, Aledmys Diaz, out with a broken thumb, and Trevor Rosenthal, out with shoulder issues/suckitis. Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams are also a little banged up. Not that there’s any good time to face the Cardinals, but it would be nice to see the Cubs salt things away, as ridiculous as that sounds with a twelve game lead.

Team Leaders

Cubs

Cardinals

Pitching matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each starter.

Thursday: Carlos Martinez, RHP (7.40, 3.22, 3.29, 3.86, 3.64) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.84, 2.53, 2.93, 3.83, 3.32), 7:05 PM CT

Martinez’s ERA has been more than fine this year, but his peripherals don’t paint quite as rosy a picture compared to last year’s numbers. He’s striking out many fewer batters, but a good BABIP seems to be making up for it. He last faced the Cubs back in May, and was wrecked for six runs in five innings. Earlier the the season though he was able to hold the April Cubs to just one run in seven innings. He was knocked around by the mighty Braves offense in his last start.

Friday: Adam Wainwright, RHP (7.05, 2.33, 4.34, 3.33, 3.27) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (9.04, 3.16, 2.59, 2.99, 2.68), 1:20 PM CT

It would be a massive understatement to say that Waino’s season did not get off to a good start. But aside from his strand rate, all of his peripherals look very similar to his last full season. What does seem strange is the sheer number of hits that he has given up. He’s had four different games this year in which he’s given up double digit hits. If you look at his line drive rate over the past few seasons it averages around 24%, which is not what you’d expect for a guy who puts up the kind of results that he does. I guess hitters are just getting more swings on him this year.

Saturday: Luke Weaver, RHP (-,-,-,-,-) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.58, 2.37, 2.17, 3.35, 3.60), 1:20 PM CT

Weaver is making his MLB debut, sucks for him to be facing the other team’s ace. He made thirteen starts in the minors this year, mostly in AA, where he posted a 90-12  strikeout to walk ratio. It’s a little surprising that he’s getting the start and not top prospect Alex Reyes, who was called up to pitch out of the bullpen.

Sunday: Mike Leake, RHP (6.22, 1.42, 4.79, 4.04, 3.90) vs John Lackey, RHP (8.96, 2.49, 3.56, 3.76, 3.46), 7:08 PM CT

Leake turned his Cardinals tenure from Dumpster Fire to mere smoldering trash earlier in the summer, but a string of bad starts has that fire roaring again. He had three starts in a row with 6+ runs given up, and managed to hold the Reds to three runs in six innings in his last start despite striking out no one and walking four. There’s only four more years of that contract! I’ll `enjoy’ seeing him turn into the next Kyle Lohse (the good version).

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Comments

  1. cerulean

    I am starting to love this La Stella saga. People are so confused. Dude, you have a contract. Why are you being so selfish? You’re only hurting yourself.

    He’s Bartleby the scrivener. He’s Cool Hand Luke. I love the righteous disobedience. We do not have ownership over him.

    It’s a beautiful thing.

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  2. Edwin

    So apparently Trump’s plan for dealing with the fallout from him terrible statements: Make even more terrible statements. The man is non-stop.

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  3. SK

    So, if I could add a poll, I would ask:

    How Many Games Back will the Cardinals be on Monday Morning?

    I’ll say 12 because I’m a pessimistic bastard

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  4. SK

    Edwin:
    SK,

    I like how he doesn’t play as himself, because he doesn’t want to get mad at himself.

    He’s a funny man with a big personality. Also, I’d love to see him get mad at himself.

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  5. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Mucker: I’ve seen the 2nd order records some of you have posted. What is that?

    It’s when you run out of records from the 1st order, so you have to order more records. “Hey, Mitch! We sold out of the ‘Meatloaf Live on Broadway’ records. Bust open that 2nd order.”

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  6. Mucker

    I’ve been on Fangraphs all day looking up stats that I didn’t even know existed. They have a “clutch” stat that measures how well a player performs in high leverage situations and I was pleasantly surprised to see Addison Russell leads MLB in that stat. Was also surprised to see Bryant has the 2nd lowest in MLB. Don’t really know what any of that means but I thought I’d share.

    Cool story bro

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  7. Mucker

    dmick89,

    Oh cool. Thanks. So what does that mean? They should have a better record based on their run differential? Does that mean they are better than they are and we should start celebrating now? Or that they are finding ways to lose games even though they are better and we should all start crying now?

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  8. dmick89

    Mucker,

    It just means that based on their runs scored, underlying stats (hits, walks, etc), the formula expected the Cubs to be a bit better than they have been. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in it. I usually look at it as whether or not a team has been lucky (the Cubs have been a bit unlucky). Crazy to think of this team as a bit unlucky, though.

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  9. uncle dave

    SK,

    I’m gonna go with 14. I know that this is petty and probably not going to happen, but I’d love to see the Cubs clinch in St. Louis in mid-September. They’d have to open up about an 18 game lead or so, which sounds crazy, but then again if they sweep this series they’re at 16.

    Not going to happen, but if it did I’d enjoy it more than I’d like to admit. It would be kinda like fucking your biggest bully’s girl on his bed.

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  10. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Fowler
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Zobrist
    Russell
    Heyward
    Coghlan
    Ross
    Lester

    I saw somewhere Martinez has a big platoon split – his career numbers are a .336 wOBA against for LHB and .265 for RHB, hence Coghlan.

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  11. SK

    berselius: hence Coghlan.

    Nah, it’s Joe’s ageism at play here. Coghlan, Ross etc. play tonight, because only young guys can be expected to start on the day game after a night game. Zobrist probably gets a, ahem, blow, tomorrow too.

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  12. cerulean

    There is a dead space on the left of the screen that is the perfect size for showing pitch location and other statcast data, but it is just empty with an MLB Plus watermark.

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  13. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I am enjoying this one more than the one I saw a few months ago, though they have yet to do a phone interview, which is the worst. I enjoy the discussion sans play calling where they are actually watching the game.

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  14. cerulean

    Petriello just talked to Muskat about the Cubs having the NL Central all locked up—Carrie countered with Maddon’s cliché about one game at a time and the ’69 Cubs blowing a 9-game lead in August—and Mike respectfully disagreed—the lead is insurmountable for the Cardinals. I rather enjoyed that.

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  15. Smokestack Lightning

    Awesome. Only kind of bunt I’ll accept. 2 out surprise fuck-you bunts by catchers who can’t really hit.

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  16. cerulean

    Per Petriello—here have only been five homers (out of about 3500) with a lower exit velocity than Grichuk’s homer. That was a shit happens.

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  17. cerulean

    Montgomery looked pretty good. And his impact will almost certainly be felt the rest of the series and maybe the rest of the season.

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  18. Rizzo the Rat

    Every time Lackey warms up in the pen, the Cubs win. The universe doesn’t want a Lackey relief appearance.

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  19. Rizzo the Rat

    Rizzo’s gotten screwed on so many outside strikes, it’s only fair he got a ball on the inner half of the zone.

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