The Cubs return to the semi-frozen tundra of Wrigley field for a big series against the Cardinals. For all the bitching about the awful weather canceling games this April – what else can you do? It's April 16 and the weather is this bad. Sometimes nature just throws you a slutter. The best solution I've heard is that the schedulers should make sure to put as many division games as possible on the schedule in April, since it's much easier to make those up than it is with a team that only visits once. Looking at the weather it's possible we just see a doubleheader tomorrow and another rescheduled game, but at least the teams have more flexibility on this one.
Team Leaders
Now that the Cubs are facing another team that did not trade 95% of its roster in the offseason, I'll use the teams' 2017 numbers here instead.
Cubs
- OBP: Kris Bryant (.409)
- ISO: Ian Happ (.261)
- HR: Anthony Rizzo (32)
- R+RBI: Rizzo (208)
- wRC+: Bryant (146)
- BSR: Bryant (4.8)
- DRS: Jason Heyward (18)
- SP K/9: Jose Quintana (10.46)
- SP BB/9: Quintana (2.24)
- SP FIP: Quintana (3.25)
- RP FIP: Carl Edwards Jr (12.75)
- RP BB/9: Brandon Morrow (1.85)
- RP FIP: Morrow (1.55)
- WAR: Bryant (6.7)
Urinals
- OBP: Tommy Pham (.411)
- ISO: Paul DeJong, somehow (.247)
- HR: Marcell Ozuna (37)
- R+RBI: Ozuna (237)
- wRC+: Pham (148)
- BSR: Pham (5.3)
- DRS: Jedd Gyorko (16)
- SP K/9: Luke Weaver (11.22)
- SP BB/9: Michael Wacha (2.99)
- SP FIP: Weaver (3.12)
- RP K/9: Tyler Lyons (11.33)
- RP BB/9: John Brebbia (1.92) – I don't remember this guy at all. He made 50 appearances!
- RP FIP: Lyons (2.86)
- WAR: Pham (6.1)
Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.
As mentioned in the Whip-Around, Ozuna was the Cardinals big offseason acquisition. He had a MUCH better year than I remembered last year, driving in 120+ runs with 37 homers (presumably not in a row). They also bit the bullet and signed Greg Holland after it became clear that Luke Gregerson wouldn't be ready to start the season. Holland wasn't quite ready either, as he walked four batters to blow a lead in extras in his Cardinals debut. Bud Norris is now closing out games. I was going to make a crack that hopefully the Cubs remember him well from the 2016 NLCS, but it appears that Norris and Joe Blanton are the same player in my head.
The Cards have a bunch of players on the shelf right now, including Brett Cecil (shoulder/foot), Luke Gregerson (hamstring), who may be back this series, Jedd Gyorko (hamstring), and Sam Tuivailala (knee). Alex Reyes is still rehabbing from TJS and could be back next month. Tommy Pham (vengeance) is playing through his simmering resentment towards the Cardinals org.
Rizzo was activated from the DL today, so the Cubs injury sheet is clean aside from Drew Smyly, who won't be back for a few months anyway.
Pitching Probables
Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher.
Monday: Adam Wainwright, RHP (6.96, 2.80, 4.27) vs Tyler Chatwood, RHP (7.37, 4.26, 4.31), 6:05 PM CT
Waino is a shell of his former self, not that I'm going to shed a tear over this. He lasted just 3.2 innings in his first start, walking four batters and seeing his velocity drop significantly inning by inning. He lasted seven innings with no walks against the Brewers in his next outing, but gave up two home runs. His fastball is still sitting around 90 but his cutter, which used to be his best pitch has dropped all the way to 83 from the 87-88 when it was in its prime.
Chatwood gave up roughly a billion hits to the Pirates in his last start. They may have found the BABIP monkey's paw though, so maybe it's not *all* on him. I'm as guilty as the next guy in trying to find silver linings in his results, and apparently the statcasty numbers don't look as bad, but so far the results have just not been particularly good.
Tuesday: Michael Wacha, RHP (8.16, 3.15, 4.21) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.92, 2.65, 3.64), 7:05 PM CT
Wednesday: Luke Weaver, RHP (8.28, 2.34, 3.79) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.86, 2.38, 3.74), 1:20 PM CT
Ran out of time to blurb the rest of these guys, but Luke Weaver might be pretty good.
Comments
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone,
Not fun. I had to replace one of those switches once.
TyroneQuote Reply
Today’s game —-> already postponed
berseliusQuote Reply
Tyrone,
At least I have another washing machine lying around, thanks to Texas rental property norms.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, Texas.
But in my experience, fixing the washer wasn’t the main problem with the malfunction…
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
The main problem is definitely the water level sensor in the machine. Though it was compounded by the emergency shutoff thing attaches to the water lines also not triggering.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
This seems like a good opportunity to skip Chatwood in the rotation. And I’m really happy they postponed it, because Cubs/Cardinals tickets resell for a whole lot more in July than they do in Smarch.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I thought they should have it done for tonight’s game, but when was the last time that Joe skipped a starter that didn’t involve having Lester not pitch against the Brewers?
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone,
What I meant was, fixing it was easier than cleaning up after the washer leaked water all over our house.
TyroneQuote Reply
for anyone interested in making a bit of money on these postponed games, buy tickets on stubhub when the announcement for postponement happens and relist for the future game. it usually takes a bit of time for stubhub to take tickets down and usually crappy weather games drop a lot the day of the game.
sharpchicityQuote Reply
I just noticed Antarctica Cubs in the headline. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s a really good idea, which I guess is why they’re not doing it and Chatwood is pitching tomorrow. But hey, why shuffle your rotation so your best pitchers face a divisional rival, right?
PerkinsQuote Reply
I enjoyed Pham’s candor earlier this year, so I want him to do well to make the Cardinals look bad, but then that will make the Cards good. Sorry Pham. Keep up the discontent, and maybe have a bit of a slump so they’ll dump you.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They’re known as the AntarctiCubs in these parts. No idea why—this does not look like the southern hemisphere, and there are no bears in Antarctica—but that’s marketing for you.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs still wrongly believe that Chatwood is a decent pitcher. I guess you have to when you pay him that kind of money.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’m still holding out hope. Just not much of it.
PerkinsQuote Reply
The Reds are 2-13, and one of those wins was a shutout of the Cubs.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
The Cubs have excelled at playing down to the Reds level this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pirates lose. Brewers lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
The Brewers are trying to keep pace.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Updated probable pitchers
Waino-Chatwood
Weaver-Lester
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
I can’t wait for winter to end so baseball season can start.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
RF Zobrist
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
LF War Bear
2B Baez
SS Russell
CF Heyward
P Chatwood
berseliusQuote Reply
I hate this game already.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Molina is out-pitch-framing Contreras by a wife margin.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*wide
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Chatwood sure likes to walk people. Though pitch 6 to Pham was strike 3.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Did Contreras get markedly worse at framing this year? I’ve seen at least half a dozen instances in the early part of the season where a Cubs pitcher should have gotten a looking strikeout that wasn’t called.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I wouldn’t be much worse than Contreras.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
His framing numbers got really bad in the second half of last year. Maybe trading Montero was a mistake?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Walking Happ on four pitches to get to Bryant?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cmon KB.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Pirates lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Seven walks for Chatwood against one hit. He’s a weird, weird pitcher.
PerkinsQuote Reply
You know what. I think Chatwood has potential to be awesome. Maybe not Arrieta 2015 awesome, but really good. He actually has good stuff. I think having him around Lester and Hendricks will do wonders for him as the season goes on as far as how to get hitters to get themselves out instead of just trying to overpower or hit the perfect spot.
Feel free to use this against me in the future because it’s likely to be wrong.
JKVQuote Reply
JKV,
Stranger things have probably happened, but he’s allowed almost two guys on per inning so far this year. He also hasn’t been too difficult to get hits against. It’s early, but I guess I don’t see what you do.
I should add that I didn’t see him pitch tonight, but seeing as he walked a million batters I’m glad I chose to watch something else.
dmick89Quote Reply
Happ sure strikes out a lot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Javy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Seeing Molina get borderline/out of the zone pitches called strikes while Contreras gets pitches in the zone called balls is kind of infuriating.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Chatwood’s been interesting. His K% is at a career high of 24.3%, so that’s great. And his GB% is still solid at 50%. But his BB% is at a crazy career high of 18.9%.
His pitch mix has basically been the same as last year. The only pitch he’s really found success with so far is his cutter. His elite spin rate curve has been pretty bad, and least based on outcomes so far.
His Swinging Strike % is actually lower than last year, so I’m not sure how sustainable his gains to his K% are at this point. The only big difference is his First Strike % has gone from around 54% to 60%, so maybe he’s getting ahead of hitters more often?
I know it’s cliche, but at this point things could go either way with Chatwood. He’s basically been the same pitcher he was in Colorado, just a more extreme version.
EdwinQuote Reply
Postponed. Again.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
At least it’s only pushed back a day.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
I’m going to Friday’s and Saturday’s games, and of course the weather looks shitty again for Friday.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
1: R1P8 S MINKAH FITZPATRICK ALABAMA – I’ve come around on Minkah. His value isn’t predicated on being an outside CB and he’s so good at what he does.
2: R2P7 WR COURTLAND SUTTON SMU
3: R4P5 EDGE DUKE EJIOFOR WAKE FOREST – Not a Fangio EDGE, but good value here. If you want an EDGE in this draft, get him in the first 60 picks.
4: R4P15 OT ALEX CAPPA HUMBOLDT STATE – Nasty. Starter upside at 4 OL positions.
TyroneQuote Reply
I wish all their games were pushed back until July. The Cubs don’t show up until then anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
1: R1P14 OT MIKE MCGLINCHEY NOTRE DAME – Not really their type, but he’s OT1.
2: R2P13 EDGE KEMOKO TURAY RUTGERS
3: R3P12 CB ANTHONY AVERETT ALABAMA
4: R4P1 DL NATHAN SHEPHERD FORT HAYS STATE
5: R4P33 EDGE KYLIE FITTS UTAH – Bet on the athleticism.
TyroneQuote Reply
1: R1P9 EDGE HAROLD LANDRY BOSTON COLLEGE
2: R2P27 CB MIKE HUGHES UCF
3: R3P6 WR DANTE PETTIS WASHINGTON
4: R3P10 LB MALIK JEFFERSON TEXAS
5: R4P28 OT DESMOND HARRISON WEST GEORGIA
TyroneQuote Reply
Ryno, who is a Fangio EDGE that would be a good value pick in the 4th? I’m thinking unless they trade down and get that 3rd back, that Bears won’t pull trigger at 8 for anyone other than Chubb.
MuckerQuote Reply
What are the typical personel for a Fangio defense? What does he normally look for in a DE, DT/NT, ILB, OLB, CB, and S? I’m familiar with the Tampa 2 defense, but other than that I haven’t dug into what NFL defenses are doing these days.
EdwinQuote Reply
Mucker,
These days, it’s harder to find a quality EDGE that late without off-field or injury issues. I think your best bets are Arden Key (off-field) and Kylie Fitts (injury).
TyroneQuote Reply
Edwin,
Fangio has typically run a base 3-4, but most team’s real “base” defense is nickel these days.
DT – 3T and 1/0T are usually in the mold of 5Ts physically and function as one-gappers.
EDGE – Long and lean speed-to-power guys.
LB – Versatility is key. Typically likes to have two do-it-all types to disguise pressure/coverage.
CB – Nothing unusual. Prefer the length/press types, but not exclusively.
S – Like LB, versatile. Two guys that can play both roles. Likes to disguise coverage presnap.
TyroneQuote Reply
As far as EDGE’s in this draft, it’s:
Rd 1 – Chubb, Harold Landry and Josh Sweat (for me)
Rd 2 – Okoronkwo, Davenport, Kemoko Turay
Rd 3 – Key, Lorenzo Carter, Fitts
And that’s about it.
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
Key only issue off-field? His production dipped but was that from injuries?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
He had a few minor injuries, IIRC, but nothing too bad. I think there were some questions about his commitment to football. He didn’t seem all that into playing this last season.
Kind of reminds me of Aaron Lynch with his college career arc.
TyroneQuote Reply
Bryan Price ————> unemployment line.
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
But how does that help the fucking Reds?
PerkinsQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
CF Almora
2B Baez
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
C Contreras
LF Schwarber
SS Russell
RF Heyward
P Lester
Berselius is too lazy to login on his phoneQuote Reply
Perkins,
It immediately makes them the frontrunners to win the NL Central.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow. I totally forgot that the Cowboys used a supplemental 1 on Steve Walsh a few months after drafting Troy Aikman first overall in 1989. If they hadn’t wasted that pick, they probably would have drafted Cortez Kennedy (in addition to Emmitt Smith) in the 1990 draft.
TyroneQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
The black jersey, black pants and all-black helmet gives SF and OAK a run for best NFL uniform, tbh.
TyroneQuote Reply
Helmet1
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
BTW, this comment is because of…
TyroneQuote Reply
I always wonder why home teams in the NFL wear dark colors. In Jacksonville’s case, seems like a burden wearing black in the Jacksonville sun. You’d think the home team would want the advantage of not overheating their players.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I’ve heard that’s why DAL wears the whites at home.
TyroneQuote Reply
False.
dmick89Quote Reply
The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
TyroneQuote Reply
dmick89,
#getoffmylawn
TyroneQuote Reply
So after the Cubs lose today, can we stop trying to pretend they’re going to do anything worth following this year and move on to the NFL Draft?
TyroneQuote Reply
haha holy shit, jim riggleman is the new interim manager. i had no idea he was with the reds. wasn’t he the manager that year the cubs started out 0-14? those post-game press conferences after like game 9 were just painful.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
eyeballs.emoji
TyroneQuote Reply
Haven’t we already done that?
BTW, nothing will top the Raiders uniforms.
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I’m inclined to agree, but that black helmet…
TyroneQuote Reply
Heyward!!!
PerkinsQuote Reply
It’s sweet for sure. I’ve always liked the Jaguars helmet until that monstrosity they had with the two tones.
MuckerQuote Reply
adbert -> iowa
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
wait i guess that technically happened a while ago. anyway, he makes his first start for iowa tomorrow.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Yes, we already reached the correct and obvious conclusion that the Raiders had the best uniforms in sports. I have no idea what Ryno is doing. He must be very ill.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d say the Yankees and Dodgers are perfectly cromulent choices for the best uniforms in sports.
PerkinsQuote Reply
So the Cubs finally won again.
Rice at homeQuote Reply
Nice to see Jake owning the Pirates again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
I have a fever and the only cure is more all-black helmets.
TyroneQuote Reply
So Cubs have been 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6, 7-7, and now 8-8.
Love the mediocrity!
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
Jeff Fisher approves.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-chicago-cubs-8-8-at-colorado-rockies-11-9/
berseliusQuote Reply