Today, we will look at the 40 man roster in relation to how many spots with be available to protect Rule 5 eligible players in the Cubs minor league system.
There are two phases of the Rule 5 draft – the major league phase & the minor league phase. The major league phase is 1 round, where each team will be able to make a selection. It is very common for a team to select a player for another team and trade that player in return for cash. The Cubs did this last year. Players selected in the major league phase must be kept on the 25-man active roster the entire year or they will be offered back to the original team. The exception is that these players can be kept on the disabled list if they are injured (a la David Patton).
After the major league phase, there are two rounds to the minor league phase. All 30 teams will be eligible to select a player in the AAA and AA phase. Here's a table to show which players are eligible to be selected in which phase of the draft. Almost all teams normally select a player in the AAA phase and hardly any teams select a player in the AA phase. This is because if a player isn't protected from the AA phase, they are basically not considered one of the top 115 players in the organization.
| 40 Man | AAA | AA | <= A+ | |
| ML Phase | X | eligible | eligible | eligible |
| AAA Phase | X | X | eligible | eligible |
| AA Phase | X | X | X | eligible |
Before looking at who will be protected, we need to see (and guess) how many spots will be available.
Cubs Current 40 Man Roster (italicized players are whom I believe were not on the active 25-man roster on the last day of the regular season)
Pitchers
- Jake Arrieta
- Dallas Beeler
- Carl Edwards Jr.
- Justin Grimm
- Jason Hammel
- Kyle Hendricks
- Eric Jokisch
- Jon Lester
- Yoervis Medina
- Neil Ramirez
- Clayton Richard
- Hector Rondon
- Zac Rosscup
- Pedro Strop
- Travis Wood
Catchers
- Miguel Montero
- David Ross
Infielders
- Arismendy Alcantara
- Javier Baez
- Kris Bryant
- Starlin Castro
- Tommy La Stella
- Anthony Rizzo
- Addison Russell
- Christian Villanueva
Outfielders
- Chris Coghlan
- Kyle Schwarber
- Jorge Soler
- Matt Szczur
Right now, the Cubs 40 man roster sits at 29. Here are Cubs players that elected Free Agency:
– Dan Haren
– Jason Motte
– Fernando Rodney
– Chris Denorfia
– Dexter Fowler
– Austin Jackson
– Quintin Berry
– Jonathan Herrera
– Trevor Cahill
– Tommy Hunter
– Taylor Teagarden (outrighted to Iowa)
Here's what I'm including in my 40-man estimate:
+ Trevor Cahill
+ Tommy Hunter
+ [SP FA acquisition]
+ [RP FA acquisition]
+ [CF FA acquisition]
With that estimate, the Cubs 40 man would be at 34. One might think "why don't they just get verbal agreements with players and not sign them until after the draft to allow maximum spots for protecting players?" To that point, once a player is added to the 40 man roster, they have to pass through irrevocable waivers to be sent back down to the minors. Any team can claim that player and put them on their 40 man roster. It's a better risk to allow a player to be drafted in the Rule 5 where they have to remain on the 25 man roster than to try to get a player through waivers of all 30 teams.
Tomorrow (or Thursday, it could either way), we'll look at the players eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Comments
What’s this “new shit” thing? I forgot what that was
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Millertime,
I think they need a QB, but I’m also not a big Cutler fan.
If the Bears are sitting there in the first round and a guy they think is a franchise QB is available, they should take him. Shed Cutler’s contract and spend it elsewhere.
The issue is whether any prospects are franchise QBs. I haven’t started watching yet, but Goff looks like one to me. I’ve heard scouts love Lynch even more. Then there’s about 8 guys with questions that are likely Day 3 picks.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
It’s highly doubtful the Bears take a QB in 2016. They’ll run Cutler out there for one more year at least. He’s playing really well under Fox & Gase and the defense needs impact players, especially another OLB to pair with Pernell McPhee. The Bears just aren’t getting ANY pressure on the QB. That is unless they sign Von Miller.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Jkv, thanks for sharing this. Nicely done.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
They should take one at some point. This is a good year for that, with several talented QBs that have questions to push them down boards.
But again, it’s my personal preference. I don’t think Cutler’s consistent enough to win a SB.
And personally, I’d rather pick Goff or Lynch in the first and use Cutler’s money to lure Miller, Aldon Smith or Mo Wilkerson. Mostly because I don’t see any elite draft-eligible edge rushers at this point.
RynoQuote Reply
That said, I think FSU’s Jalen Ramsey makes a LOT of sense for the Bears. Could be an elite safety early.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
You don’t like Jaylon Smith? Seems like an elite athlete with good skillset to do more than just rush the passer.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I LOVE Jaylon Smith and the versatility he’d bring to a defense. He could play any LB spot in Fangio’s defense.
I just think Ramsey can step in and provide Earl/McCourty-level production at safety right away. If I’m wrong, he’s a top CB.
Jaylon is more boom or bust, imo.
RynoQuote Reply
But I want to add the eternal caveat that I don’t start watching any player tape until after their season is finished. All my opinions at this point are based on a few plays I’ve seen while watching games.
RynoQuote Reply
Recently, there have been a lot of comments here about trading Castro or Baez. I think another piece that could fetch a CF or SP is Gleyber Torres. Torres spent most of the year in A ball. He’s young and so far down that there’s a lot of risk and variation in outcomes. A lot of respected sites around baseball consider him to be a top 50 prospect.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
What are your QB rankings for the draft, Ryno? I’m sure it’s on your mind as a SF fan….
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
As much as Kaepernick has been disappointing post Harbaugh, Gabbert is going to be terrible with any coach (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
Don’t really see this happening seeing how Ray McDonald blew up in the FO’s face.
berseliusQuote Reply
Without thinking too much, I think we’ll protect Pierce Johnson, Josh Conway, Corey Black, Dan Vogelbach, Willson Contreras, and maybe Daury Torrez/Jeimer Candelario but they probably will just take their chances with them.
mylesQuote Reply
Another reason to think the Cubs will go hard in FA for pitching this year is that next year the cupboard will be extremely bare. Strasburg is about the only #1 pitcher in that class.
mylesQuote Reply
Given the lack of scarcity this year, I think there is a better chance than most years of getting a good value in free agent terms.
I know I said before that I want Grienke, but that was before I realized that they’d lose a draft pick, something the Cubs have avoided. So I think that the price of Price will be right. Since World Series Winner Johnny Cueto exorcised his playoff demons, He may be more expensive relative to Price, whose playoff record remains awful and really that is the measure of a man so maybe Thoyer can get him for a few million a year—the fucking loser.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I get the vibe that Cueto has pissed off a lot of opposing players in the NL Central, though it is possible that I am just projecting his dustup with DeJesus and the Cardinals fans ire over Jason LaRue on the rest of the players in the division.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
He’s no Brandon Phillips though.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I’ll take Price, thank you.
—
Assuming Cliff Lee doesn’t hang out up, it might be worthwhile to take a chance on him. I know he’s old, but he seems like the kind of pitcher that can go well into his forties, again assuming his arm hasn’t fallen off. (Big assumption)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Also, too bad Wada couldn’t stay healthy. He is off to Nippon. Sayonara.
ceruleanQuote Reply
myles,
I don’t think Willson Contreras is Rule 5 eligible. At least according to AZ Phil.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Fixed.
GBTSQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
He’s been in the org for 5 years, he’s eligible.
GBTSQuote Reply
He’s eligible, just in a different way than most are eligible.
Contreras is eligible in the Rule 55 draft as a 6-year minor league FA.
mylesQuote Reply
I wonder if Felix Pena is getting drafted in the Rule 5 this year. I think there’s a really good chance the Cubs don’t protect him and he gets drafted.
mylesQuote Reply
I’d like to see Contreras be the right-handed catcher for the Cubs next year. I really don’t want to see any more David Ross. Ross had a 33 wRC+ this season.
dmick89Quote Reply
Whether it’s a good thing or not, Ross is Lester’s personal catcher in 2016. Then, he’ll retire.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
Probably, but I’ve been hoping he’ll retire. It’s not out of the question given his age and performance. I think it’s unlikely, but I’m also hoping the Cubs push him in that direction and figure out a way to keep him on the staff as a coach of some kind.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It sounds like he’s planning to play. http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/10/25/david-ross-will-return-to-cubs-in-2016/
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
That’s too bad.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hard to believe Ross once hit 21 homers in 296 plate appearances. He slugged .579!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
I’ve only seen games from Goff, Connor Cook, Cardale, Kessler, Kevin Hogan and Boykin at this point.
Goff is tops at this point. Texas was kind of a pushover defensively, but he showed well against them. He anticipated throws, moved well and looked very mature in the pocket.
After him, Cook looks like a Day 2 pick.
Kessler is intriguing and worth a deeper look. I want to see if Hogan has improved any over previous seasons where he’s looked like shit. Both are Day 3 options for me right now.
I’m eager to scout Paxton Lynch, Hackenberg, Gunner Kiel, Brandon Doughty, Carson Wentz and Jacoby Brissett. Feels like there’s a good chance to find a gem in the later rounds with this bunch.
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
New shit (part two): http://obstructedview.net/the-40-man-roster-rule-5-draft-part-2/
JonKneeVQuote Reply