Looking towards the coin toss game

In Uncategorized by myles77 Comments

It is all but official. The Cubs will meet the Pirates in the Wild Card game. It's theoretical that the Cubs would play the Cardinals instead, but the chance that St. Louis takes the division is well over 90% at this point – 91.7% according to Baseball Prospectus. Since it's one game, anything can happen: we can win by 17, or lose by 6. That said, it's always nice to have the better team.

Do they?

  Pirates wOBA* Cubs wOBA*
C Cervelli 0.346 Montero 0.332
1B Alvarez 0.331 Rizzo 0.394
2B Walker 0.324 Castro 0.284
SS Mercer 0.264 Russell 0.302
3B Ramirez 0.317 Bryant 0.374
LF Marte 0.336 Schwarber 0.368
CF McCutchen 0.385 Fowler 0.338
RF Polanco 0.303 Coghlan 0.341
P Cole 3.28 Arrieta 2.26
         
#1 Polanco 0.303 Fowler 0.338
#2 Marte 0.336 Schwarber 0.368
#3 McCutchen 0.385 Coghlan 0.341
#4 Ramirez 0.317 Bryant 0.374
#5 Walker 0.324 Rizzo 0.395
#6 Cervelli 0.346 Montero 0.332
#7 Alvarez 0.331 Castro 0.284
#8 Mercer 0.264 Arrieta 0.180
#9 Cole 0.178 Russell 0.302
         
PH #1 Morse 0.293 Soler 0.315
PH #2 Harrison 0.302 Baez 0.334
LPH Ishikawa 0.290 La Stella 0.336
PR Florimon Really Fast Berry Really Fast
    DRA   DRA
LOOGY Watson 2.48 Richard 4.77
BP Bastardo 3.01 Ramirez 4.91
BP Hughes 4.87 Grimm 3.15
BP Caminero 3.77 Strop 2.58
CL Melancon 2.79 Rondon 2.94
         
*Pitcher stat is DRA.        

 

It sure seems like it. With the exception of down-ballot MVP candidate Cutch, the Cubs 1-5 has a higher wOBA than any of their Pittsburgh counterparts. Only Francisco Cervelli and McCutchen break into the Top 4, and Cervelli doesn't really have the type of power that is going to blow a game open. Cervelli is a nice catcher, and a revelation at the price Pittsburgh signed him to, but he is no true offensive force, especially with low-OBP types behind him.

Getting the Pirates' lineup is relatively straightforward; however, the Cubs one is very difficult. You could very easily replace Castro with La Stella, or Baez. You could but Soler in for Coghlan and move Cogs to LF. You could even put Bryant at RF, Schwarber at LF, Baez at 3B, and Castro at 2B. Almost no permutation of those players would surprise me. Putting Castro in is a feel thing for me; it also makes your bench more versatile defensively, as Baez and La Stella could go in for any infield position that isn't 1B while Castro can't. 

The Cubs are slightly better offensively, and a lot of that is due to the Jung-ho Kang injury. Just as importantly, that means that the Pirates have a very, very thin bench. Morse has been good ever since the trade to the Pirates, but you don't really fear him or Harrison, really. Contrast that with Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Tommy La Stella (well, contrast that with Soler and Baez). Those are above-average bats, and both are very real threats to put one in the seats. 

Defensively, the story is less rosy. The Cubs are a middling defensive team in the infield and a poor one in the outfield (both Schwarber and Coghlan are below-average out there, and Fowler is average on his best days). The Pirates, on the other hand, are a good defensive team, especially in the outfield. Random game-losing drops in right field aside, Polanco is a pretty good fielder by the eye test. McCutchen is an average CF, but thanks to Starling Marte, he doesn't need to be more. Marte is a gold-glove caliber left fielder. Kang was a good fielder, but Mercer is even a little better. Alvarez is an abyss at any position he plays, but 1B doesn't matter that much. Walker is average, and Ramirez can still get it from time to time.

Starter-wise, the Cubs have the clear advantage. That's not a knock on Gerrit Cole; Gerrit Cole is a bonafide #1 starter. What he is not is a Cy Young candidate this year, and Arrieta is. If Arrieta can't take the ball into the 8th, though, I like the Pirates chances. The Cubs have a hot mess in the bullpen that seems destined to give a game away in the playoffs. It might be this one. Meanwhile, the Pirates actually have a pretty nice pen.

When it's all said and done, I think the Cubs are the better team, and they have been for half the season. That isn't good for much on what is a glorified flip of the coin, but it IS something. 

 

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  1. JonKneeV

    Joe might go with La Stella against Cole though. He seems to like the platoon advantages. Let’s just hope he doesn’t put Ross out there to catch Arrieta.

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  4. Suburbank Id

    Love how it’s a different squadron every day but always good. Would have liked to get Soler a start, although with his shaky defense and health maybe they’re grooming him for PH/DH.

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  6. dmick89

    Suburbank Id:
    Love how it’s a different squadron every day but always good. Would have liked to get Soler a start, although with his shaky defense and health maybe they’re grooming him for PH/DH.

    I hope he gets a chance to DH in the playoffs.

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  14. dmick89

    JonKneeV:
    dmick89,


    I’m not sure what the issue is with that, but I tried to fix it by updating wordpress. That eliminated the fix I made for posting images. I’ll fix this stuff by this weekend. Pretty sure it had to do with the edit comment stuff I was trying to add yesterday. Going to get this fixed and then I’m done messing around with that stuff. Thanks for the heads up.

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  18. Suburbank Id

    dmick89: A little more info would help.

    Sorry – when I click on my profile or dashboard I get that message:

    You do not have sufficient permissions to access this page.

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  19. Suburbank Id

    dmick89:
    JonKneeV,

    Thanks again. Images can be added. I’ll look into the profile stuff later on.

    Really don’t bother unless you’re super bored. I was only going to change my shitty avatar to another shitty avatar.

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  20. Suburbank Id

    Thinking about Oct 7 as a “glorified coin toss” (which it is) is pissing me off. I like Theo’s idea for three-game, two-day wc series.

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  22. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Suburbank Id: I like Theo’s idea for three-game, two-day wc series.

    I haven’t seen this proposal. What is it – play game one on day 1, play game two on day 2 and play a tie-breaker later that second night if necessary? Are they all played at the same stadium?

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  23. Suburbank Id

    Wenningtons Gorilla Cock: I haven’t seen this proposal. What is it – play game one on day 1, play game two on day 2 and play a tie-breaker later that second night if necessary? Are they all played at the same stadium?

    He didn’t go into that much depth except DH on first day and third game the next day if necessary, so I assume it’s all in one stadium.

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  25. dmick89

    I’m OK with how it is now. Whether it’s 1, 3, 5 or 7 games, it’s not always going to result in the best of those teams winning the series. I think having only 1 games puts even more emphasis on winning your own division, which I like.

    The best thing to do is to get rid of divisions, but that’s probably not going to happen since MLB likes having the Cardinals and Cubs play more than the Cubs and Padres. I do too, but I’d probably still vote for no divisions and the 5 best teams getting in (one game playoff between number 4 and 5 seeds).

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  27. dmick89

    Suburbank Id:
    Can’t edit profile

    Issue fixed. This only affected regular users. Us special users with special privileges didn’t have the problem. I tested it out on the regular account I set up for testing and it worked finally. Let me know for sure.

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  28. dmick89

    myles:
    Keep the divisions and have 2 wild cards, but still seed the playoffs by record. That simple.

    I’d rather not penalize the teams that do actually win the division. If I could take only 3 teams in the NL in the playoffs, I’m taking the Cardinals, Mets and Dodgers because they actually won something. The current way may not always be fair, but it puts an emphasis on winning the division, which I like.

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  38. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat,

    Most pitchers have an ability to make things seem effortless for an at bat or an inning. Arrieta’s ability to do that not just over games, but over this second half of this season (throwing to first notwithstanding) makes me believe him when he says he doesn’t even know how good he is. There is something truly Maddux-like about this run.

    It’s exciting, yet I am starting to feel OK about expecting it. I mean who would be surprised to hear that Arrieta pitched another no-hitter?

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  45. WaLi

    There isn’t another pitched I’d want out there on the mound in the coin-flip game. The coin they are using has two heads on it – both sides are Arrieta’s grizzly mug.

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  47. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    dmick89: I’d rather not penalize the teams that do actually win the division. If I could take only 3 teams in the NL in the playoffs, I’m taking the Cardinals, Mets and Dodgers because they actually won something. The current way may not always be fair, but it puts an emphasis on winning the division, which I like.

    This. Because geography should be the determining factor.

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  50. Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago

    I think Arrieta should certainly beat the Pirates in the one-game. At least if he keeps this up. I’ve thought the Cubs were better than the Pirates all year, but they have never quite caught them.

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  51. Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago

    The new site is excellent by the way. I can log in, and visiting to lurk doesn’t crash my admittedly old 2010 computer browser

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  52. Millertime

    I assume Haren should get the start in the WC game, due to his veteran presence and leadership. It worked in Rookie of the Year.

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  57. Suburbank Id

    I totally get why Arrieta’s 20th win isn’t the top story on MLB.com what with the passing of a mega-legend like Yogi, but I don’t understand why it isn’t the second headline. Yankees beating the Blue Jays is neat for them, but it’s one win – Jake has 20 of the fuckers.

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  63. dmick89

    Pitcher wins… Still don’t care about them. Happy for Arrieta since it’s still seen as a big milestone, but it’s not one he accomplished on his own and there are dozens of ways that better illustrate just fucking good Arrieta has been this year.

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  66. berselius

    Smokestack Lightning: This. Because geography should be the determining factor.

    I don’t think we should get rid of divisions entirely, mostly because I want teams to play as many games as possible in their own time zones (sucks to be the Rangers/Astros). But I do like Myles’s idea of seeing based on record. The reward for winning the division is getting into the playoffs at all. I think seasons like this one are pretty unusual.

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  67. dmick89

    Suburbank Id: Really makes you wonder if traffic dropped here not because of nobody writing anything but because everyone has shitty old computers.

    We definitely took a big hit because of the move to bloguin. That doesn’t explain all the loss, but it a big part of it.

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  69. dmick89

    berselius: I don’t think we should get rid of divisions entirely, mostly because I want teams to play as many games as possible in their own time zones (sucks to be the Rangers/Astros). But I do like Myles’s idea of seeing based on record. The reward for winning the division is getting into the playoffs at all. I think seasons like this one are pretty unusual.

    Is the timezone issue really that big of a deal? With no divisions the Cubs would probably play the Cardinals and Brewers a combined 12 times less than they currently do. You could still set up IL play in a way that emphasizes time zone. I’m not sure it affects the Cubs that much if you were to get rid of divisions. Maybe it’s different for other teams though.

    You could also even establish natural rivalry series in which, for example, the Cubs and Cardinals play 18 times per year. Each team is paired with another in the same league that they play more games against than the rest of the league. It creates a somewhat unbalanced schedule that eliminating divisions is trying to get rid of, but it’s better than it currently is in some ways.

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  72. berselius

    dmick89: Is the timezone issue really that big of a deal? With no divisions the Cubs would probably play the Cardinals and Brewers a combined 12 times less than they currently do. You could still set up IL play in a way that emphasizes time zone. I’m not sure it affects the Cubs that much if you were to get rid of divisions. Maybe it’s different for other teams though.

    You could also even establish natural rivalry series in which, for example, the Cubs and Cardinals play 18 times per year. Each team is paired with another in the same league that they play more games against than the rest of the league. It creates a somewhat unbalanced schedule that eliminating divisions is trying to get rid of, but it’s better than it currently is in some ways.

    I don’t care about the players, I just don’t want to watch games starting at 10 PM if I live on the east coast (dying laughing)

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  74. Perkins

    berselius,

    I’m also for seeding based on record (after the WC game). The reward for winning the division would be not having to play a winner take all game to get into the LDS (and not having to burn the #1 starter before game 1 of the LDS).

    In this year’s case, it still eliminates one of the top three teams before the LDS, but gives a better opportunity for the two best remaining teams to get to the LCS.

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  76. berselius

    dmick89:
    berselius,

    I get that. I have a harder time watching those West Coast games than I used to because I’m too old for that shit anymore.

    I’ve been surprised how much of a pain in the ass it’s been watching games living on Mountain time – most weekday games happen at 5 or 6 so I miss about half the game due to my commute.

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