Some interesting news came out today – namely, the fact that Stanton would only accept a trade to the Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees. With that in mind, the Cubs would be pretty foolish not to consider kicking the tires on a trade for Stanton. That said, the "value" in his contract is pretty non-existent. Let's take a look.
Stanton just finished is age-27 season (at an MVP caliber). He's owed 10/$295 MM over the rest of the contract (barring a team option for the 11th year that would add $15 MM). If Stanton were a free agent RIGHT NOW, I'm not sure he'd get 10/$295,000,000, especially if you consider the fact that he's not likely to ever have a year as good as 2017 again. In fact, the median bWAR for his past 5 years is 3.7. If we slot Stanton for 6 WAR in 2018 (which is a monster projection), and debit .5 WAR every year afterwards (a lenient aging curve), a 10 year deal at a current rate of $8 million per win adjusted 4% annually for inflation is around $347 MM. That's $50 MM in surplus value, but only if Stanton doesn't get injured (not likely over a decade), declines gracefully (about as likely as not), and assumes that the burden of a $300 million contract doesn't affect other operations (which is probably true considering the market). I think that the Stanton contract is probably fair market at this point, which means that the Cubs would have to actively want him to give much in terms of value.
Once we've established that fact, any money the Marlins send to the Cubs to complete the deal would be essentially buying prospects from the Cubs. Does that sound like something the Cubs should do? I'm not sure, but I lean against it. If we sold Happ for, say, $60 MM, I could get behind that just from the perspective of having Stanton in RF and Heyward in CF, but I'm not champing at the bit for the opportunity to part with Happ if we aren't getting pitching or something.
At the end of the day, Stanton is a luxury the Cubs could probably afford, but the Cubs need some other pieces before they need Stanton. There's no doubt they could make it work, and there will be a point when it makes sense to float some offers out there (Stanton for Heyward and Russell?), but I'm not holding my breath.
Comments
Same here.
mylesQuote Reply
I think dmick understate’s Stanton’s value, but not by a whole lot.
mylesQuote Reply
He didn’t want to exclude the fourth 2017 LCS participant.
RynoQuote Reply
myles,
Understate apparently possesses Stanton’s value.
MylesQuote Reply
So Barry Bonds really hit .362/.609/.812 at 39 years old…
RynoQuote Reply
“That’s $50 MM in surplus value,” But how many Bit Coins is that? 7?
EdwinQuote Reply
It was 14 when I started typing, but now it’s 9.
MylesQuote Reply
I forgot how old he was at that time but that’s certainly a familiar slash line. It was fun.
Rice in cognitoQuote Reply
Any team acquiring Stanton is only going to get him for 3 years/$77 million because of his opt-out after 2020.
Harper is going to set the bar in his free agency after 2018 and Stanton will use that mark for a new deal.
Because of that reason, the trade should only take a starting position player, a reserve position player and a pitching prospect (Baez or Russell; Almora; De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange).
Since Stanton wants to win NOW, I would be all in in acquiring Stanton to a) clear out the outfield platoons; b) put a consistent bat in the middle of the order other teams would fear; and c) give the Ricketts another marquis player to hit 2020 season with their new Cubs cable channel.
thestealthgmQuote Reply
Ohtani to Angels
MylesQuote Reply
I hate being right
mylesQuote Reply
Good. Now I can continue wearing my Fukudome kamikaze bandana and squinty Harry Caray cub shirt.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Good news is the Cubs can sock away that Ohtani money to sign someone a couple of years from now for the major league minimum.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
They’d still come up short.
dmick89Quote Reply
When asked why he chose LAAoAoD, Ohtani said “Because my agent told me that LA is straight fire”.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
If the Cubs thought they had a legitimate shot at signing Otani they’d have traded for some international pool money. I think they were just happy to be invited to the dance.
dmick89Quote Reply
Quite true. Then I imagine the Ohtani money has a glorious future awaiting it as considerate cash in a September deal for someone who won’t be on the playoff roster.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Anybody else waiting for the news the Cubs were a close, close second?
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m not really disappointed or surprised about Ohtani. I never really expected the Cubs would have a great shot at him.
I’m just glad he’s going to a team in the AL, and at that a team the Cubs are unlikely to face in a World Series. If he’d gone to the Dodgers, that would have been much worse.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Time to go sign Darvish and maybe another starter.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wonder if the levee breaks now.
MylesQuote Reply
I’ve got a strong feeling about the Cubs signing Darvish now.
mylesQuote Reply
More or less my feeling as well. Going to an AL team was the better fit for him anyway. I was excited as hell about Ohtani the pitcher. Much, much less about Ohtani the pitcher and part-time OF who will probably not hit very well and then get hurt in the outfield.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
They couldn’t have spent it anyway since they were in the penalty.
RiceQuote Reply
myles,
That would be great. If the offseason gets are Chatwood and Cobb it would be a pretty shitty offseason.
EdwinQuote Reply
I’d go ahead and write up the “pretty shitty” version now then. Save yourself the time later.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
myles,
I’ve had a strong feeling about that since the deadline.
dmick89Quote Reply
Apparently, it’s official. Stanton sez GFU to the BFIBs. Won’t waive his NTC to play for a poorly-run, non-successful organization.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Not sure if I am happier that Stanton isn’t going to StL or that he’s putting the Marlins even more over a barrel.
Berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
The Cubs offseason was dead: to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that.
EdwinQuote Reply
thestealthgm,
Have to think the Cubs might be a little gunshy about acquiring another expensive long-term OF with the idea that he’ll opt out before he gets old and shitty. Or in the case of our current expensive, long-term OF, just shitty.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Although the more I think about it, the more I kinda want the Cubs to get Stanton anyway. Fuck it. And get Darvish too. Trade for Archer. And then Harper next year.
Cruller Jim would do it. Or put himself in the hospital trying.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
If only the Cubs had held onto Starlin so they could swap him for Stanton.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
#FireTheo
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Maybe this takes the Yankees out of the running for Bryce Harper. I feel bad for Castro though. No way he gets a ring in MIA.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I was thinking the same thing. Every time his team gets good enough to go to the LCS, he gets traded to a weaker team.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Perkins,
I assume the Marlins will trade him now. He’s way too expensive for them.
dmick89Quote Reply
Plot twist: Cubs include one of Baez/Russell in a package to get Archer, then trade some nobody to MIA for Castro. Prove me wrong.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
That might push them close to the luxury tax threshold and preclude them from going after Harper next winter aside from the more obvious objections.
RiceQuote Reply
I would legitimately freak out if that happened. I want Castro in my life again.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Honest question for you. I know you’ve started to dislike Addy for the abuse allegations, but why not the same dislike for Castro who was accused of sexual assault?
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t want Castro to return because he peaked back in 2012.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That’s a tough question I don’t have a good answer for. From what I know of the Castro investigation, the police did review the facts and failed to find the accusations credible, but on the other hand the Russell stuff never even made it to that point. I guess the answer is that I’m probably a hypocrite.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
My recollection is that the police and district attorney did not find sufficient evidence to charge Castro. I also seem to recall the police doing what police do in these things: attacking the victim. I think it’s very common for there to be insufficient evidence in sexual assault cases and it’s very common for the police to attack the victim’s credibility when a famous athlete is involved (remember what’s his face from the Steelers?). Castro was the face of this organization at the time. I don’t think we’ll ever know what happened, but according to the stats, once a woman files a sexual assault allegation, odds are the accusation is true. Not always, but overwhelmingly so. Still, I’d have no problem with Castro being on the Cubs in a backup capacity if it cost them next to nothing. That won’t happen though.
As for Addy, I have no clue. That whole thing was bizarre. I don’t even think his former wife made the allegation, right? It was her best friend or supposedly her best friend? I don’t think his wife would speak with MLB about it, but the police were never involved. I file that one under weird, but something I’ll never forget. I certainly find what happened in this case to be much less believable than the Castro allegation.
I didn’t mean to call you out for being a hypocrite. I don’t think you are. I was just curious what you were thinking.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cubs-nearing-deal-with-brandon-morrow.html
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-to-sign-brandon-morrow/
dmick89Quote Reply