Week 1 (April 4 – April 10)
- Monday, April 4 @ Angels: W 9-0 (Box, OV Recap)
- Tuesday, April 5 @ Angels: W 6-1 (Box, OV Recap)
- Thursday, April 7 @ Dbacks: W 14-6 (Box, OV Recap)
- Friday, April 8 @ Dbacks: L 2-3 (Box, OV Recap)
- Saturday, April 9 @Dbacks: W 4-2 (Box, OV Recap)
- Sunday, April 10 @ Dbacks W 7-3 (Box, OV Recap)
Injuries and Call ups: Kyle Schwarber tore his ACL, LCL and sprained his ankle in a collision with Dexter Fowler in Arizona. He's out for the season. Munenori Kawasaki was re-called from Iowa to take his spot on the roster. Quick analysis: this was the one position the Cubs could most afford an unfortunate injury like this. Jorge Soler will get the bulk of the playing time in LF for now. Javier Baez could take over when he returns from injury (hopefully this week). This is still a big loss for the Cubs. If we look at the projections, it probably costs the Cubs roughly a win or so, but Schwarber has far greater potential (realistically anyway) than either of Soler or Baez. I'd also expect quite a bit of La Stella at 3rd and Kris Bryant in LF, as well as a late innning defensive replacement for Soler. While it is definitely a loss for the Cubs, it's not the end of the world. They've got good options and they're still easily the best team in the NL Central, if not all of baseball.
Adjusted Standings (Baseball Prospectus)
| Team | W | L | PCT | RS | RA | |
| Cubs | 5 | 1 | .833 | 42 | 15 | |
| Reds | 5 | 1 | .833 | 31 | 18 | |
| Pirates | 4 | 2 | .667 | 23 | 19 | |
| Brewers | 3 | 3 | .500 | 21 | 29 | |
| Cardinals | 3 | 3 | .500 | 38 | 28 | |
| Team | W1 | L1 | PCT1 | RS | RA | D1 |
| Cubs | 5.3 | 0.7 | .877 | 42 | 15 | -0.3 |
| Reds | 4.4 | 1.6 | .730 | 31 | 18 | 0.6 |
| Cardinals | 3.9 | 2.1 | .647 | 38 | 28 | -0.9 |
| Pirates | 3.5 | 2.5 | .583 | 23 | 19 | 0.5 |
| Brewers | 2.1 | 3.9 | .356 | 21 | 29 | 0.9 |
| Team | W2 | L2 | PCT2 | RS2 | RA2 | D2 |
| Cubs | 5.7 | 0.3 | .950 | 39 | 8 | -0.7 |
| Pirates | 4.1 | 1.9 | .689 | 33 | 22 | -0.1 |
| Cardinals | 3.5 | 2.5 | .578 | 36 | 30 | -0.5 |
| Reds | 3.2 | 2.8 | .536 | 29 | 26 | 1.8 |
| Brewers | 2.3 | 3.7 | .391 | 25 | 31 | 0.7 |
| Team | W3 | L3 | PCT3 | RS3 | RA3 | D3 |
| Cubs | 5.6 | 0.4 | .940 | 36 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Pirates | 4.2 | 1.8 | .708 | 34 | 21 | -0.2 |
| Cardinals | 3.5 | 2.5 | .579 | 38 | 32 | -0.5 |
| Reds | 3.3 | 2.7 | .556 | 31 | 27 | 1.7 |
| Brewers | 2.4 | 3.6 | .392 | 23 | 29 | 0.6 |
PCT: Winning percentage
PCT1: 1st Order Winning Percentage uses actual runs scored and allowed to calculate Pythagenpat (similar to Bill James Pythagorean Theorem).
PCT2: 2nd Order Winning Percentage uses projected runs scored and allowed based on the team’s underlying statistics and then uses the Pythagenpat method.
PCT3: 3rd Order Winning Percentage is the same as PCT2 except it adjusts for quality of opponents.
Original article by Clay Davenport
These numbers don't mean a whole lot at this point. They'll take on somewhat greater meaning as the season progresses, but ultimately it comes down to actual wins and losses and not imaginary ones. I just plan to do this weekly and figured I'd start with it on week one. I assume most of you already know that, but wanted to point out that these don't much now. They're just fun to look at and give us an idea which teams are getting a little lucky and which ones aren't.
The Cubs had such a dominating first week that they may have even been a little unlucky. That's crazy. I'll take a 5-1 West Coast road trip any time.
Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus)
| Team | W | L | ePCT | Sim Wins | Sim Losses | Div % | WC % | Playoff % | Adj. Playoff % | WS Win % |
| Cubs | 5 | 1 | .555 | 91.7 | 70.3 | 71.0% | 15.6% | 86.6% | 79.4% | 12.4% |
| Dodgers | 4 | 3 | .558 | 90.8 | 71.2 | 65.9% | 17.8% | 83.7% | 75.5% | 12.3% |
| Mets | 2 | 3 | .549 | 88.0 | 74.0 | 50.4% | 20.6% | 71.0% | 61.3% | 8.7% |
| Nationals | 3 | 1 | .536 | 87.7 | 74.3 | 44.4% | 23.9% | 68.3% | 56.8% | 6.8% |
| Giants | 5 | 2 | .521 | 85.9 | 76.1 | 26.5% | 29.8% | 56.3% | 41.5% | 4.0% |
| Pirates | 4 | 2 | .509 | 83.2 | 78.8 | 13.4% | 25.6% | 39.1% | 26.0% | 2.1% |
| Cardinals | 3 | 3 | .504 | 81.8 | 80.2 | 9.1% | 20.4% | 29.5% | 19.0% | 1.5% |
| Reds | 5 | 1 | .471 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 3.5% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 8.1% | 0.4% |
| Brewers | 3 | 3 | .480 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 3.0% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 0.4% |
| Marlins | 1 | 3 | .481 | 77.1 | 84.9 | 3.9% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 0.4% |
| Padres | 2 | 4 | .478 | 76.6 | 85.4 | 2.9% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 0.3% |
| Diamondbacks | 2 | 5 | .480 | 76.2 | 85.8 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 0.3% |
| Rockies | 3 | 3 | .467 | 75.8 | 86.2 | 2.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 0.2% |
| Phillies | 2 | 4 | .445 | 71.6 | 90.4 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Braves | 0 | 5 | .450 | 70.5 | 91.5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
ePCT: The expected win percentage that BP uses in their Monte Carlos sim is the projected strength of the team.
It's early, but I really like seeing the Cubs playoff odds near 90% after one week. The Cubs are good at baseball and they're a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
Win Probability Added (WPA) Leaders
Position Players
- Dexter Fowler: 0.46
- Anthony Rizzo: 0.40
- Kris Bryant: 0.18
Starting Pitchers
- Jake Arrieta: 0.34
- Jason Hammel: 0.24
- Jon Lester: 0.20
Relief Pitchers
- Justin Grimm: 0.14
- Adam Warren: 0.14
- Hector Rondon: 0.09
Comments
Yeah, we seem like more of a 5.6-0.4 team than a 5-1 one.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
I kind of feel like they’re more 5.7-0.3 myself, but I can see your argument.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I would go more for 5.69420-0.30580
berseliusQuote Reply
Fiveish and Oneish
Suburban kidQuote Reply
berselius,
That’s pretty close.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Brewers are bad
berseliusQuote Reply
Baez starting in LF today for the I-Cubs
berseliusQuote Reply
Throw strikes, Jon.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Helps when the ump calls an obvious ball 4 a strike.
dmick89Quote Reply
don’t tell jon what to do.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Not good, Jorge.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
hopefully Lester can rebound after that. He didn’t look very good.
dmick89Quote Reply
gameday is telling me there was an injury delay after the first AB, what was the deal?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Cozart’s leg seemed to be bothering him after the single, but he stayed in the game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Cozart’s knee? Something with him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bryant really needs to eat an extra bowl of Wheaties in the morning.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That underhand lob by Lester was low.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Randy says win (17)
MylesQuote Reply
Man, Lester looks awful tonight.
MylesQuote Reply
This offense hasn’t been working the count today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Good job, Ross and Lester!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The thing I don’t like about BP’s definition is that they use the term “projected.” It gives the impression that they are incorporating PECOTA lines.
GWQuote Reply
OF COURSE David Ross is the one to break up the no-hitter.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
GW,
I agree. I’ll change the wording of what I have up above on future ones. Not sure why they use that word.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
I turned it after the first inning. He looked like shit and I had something else I could be doing. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Come on KB
dmick89Quote Reply
Addy Fucking Russell
dmick89Quote Reply
Russell!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Addison Motherfucking Russell!!!!!!!!!!!
mylesQuote Reply
That was awesome.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was so worth missing the latest Better Call Saul episode.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Seriously, Addison Russell is the shit.
mylesQuote Reply
https://amp.twimg.com/v/e5ce2789-90ad-4be3-9d5b-ca955e1d3225
dmick89Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/719728857092268033
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Rondon has been unlucky. According to FIP, his ERA should be -1.45.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So I was at the opener—the Russell homerun was less than 30 feet from where I was in the front of the bleachers. My first home opener and first live game in too long. No-hit through six and then the stretch and David fucking Ross. The people next to me shuffled their seats—and it obviously worked. That seventh with Heyward coming through was awesome. But that Russell bomb—everybody knew it—it just kept rising. Pandemonium. And Rondon taking it home. Seriously, this team knows how to entertain.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Addison Muscle!
/dvr comments
berseliusQuote Reply
new shit
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-5-reds-3-41115/
berseliusQuote Reply