The Hardball Times has released their Oliver projections for the 2012 season. Berselius will once again be writing the player comments. Like the other projections, I’ll break them into multiple parts and then as we move closer to the season add a third part for each one. It’s kind of useless to calculate the team WAR at this point considering there are still so many holes and entire offseason ahead of us. The 2012 Oliver projections for the Cubs hitters are below:
| Name | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | K | BB | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | WAR |
| Geovany Soto | 623 | 125 | 29 | 0 | 21 | 143 | 72 | .232 | .325 | .406 | .323 | 2.4 |
| Starlin Castro | 623 | 175 | 33 | 8 | 6 | 79 | 32 | .303 | .338 | .422 | .332 | 2.4 |
| Marlon Byrd | 623 | 156 | 33 | 2 | 12 | 98 | 31 | .272 | .321 | .406 | .319 | 1 |
| Bryan LaHair | 623 | 148 | 32 | 1 | 30 | 153 | 57 | .266 | .334 | .488 | .352 | 0.8 |
| Brett Jackson | 277 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 82 | 27 | .244 | .321 | .412 | .321 | 0.5 |
| Welington Castillo | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 4 | .232 | .281 | .409 | .297 | 0.1 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 554 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 21 | 125 | 36 | .233 | .286 | .425 | .306 | 0 |
| Tony Campana | 138 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 7 | .263 | .299 | .317 | .275 | 0 |
| Darwin Barney | 658 | 161 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 83 | 29 | .265 | .298 | .336 | .281 | 0 |
| Jeff Baker | 623 | 146 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 133 | 38 | .256 | .304 | .375 | .299 | 0 |
| Tyler Colvin | 311 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 78 | 17 | .224 | .265 | .399 | .284 | 0 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 242 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 11 | .275 | .305 | .352 | .290 | 0 |
| Ryan Flaherty | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | .239 | .292 | .391 | .297 | 0 |
Let’s put it as nicely as we can: the Cubs do not have a very good offense. The most productive player is projected to hit .323 (wOBA), but because he plays catcher that’s still pretty good. The best hitter is, not surprisingly, Bryan LaHair, but since he plays 1st base he’s not very valuable. A .306 wOBA for Alfonso Soriano? Ouch. Only Soto, Castro, LaHair, Jackson, Soriano and Montanez are projected to have a wOBA .300 or higher.
Comments
Local writers like Phil Rogers downplaying the Fielder/Pujols speculation is a sure sign that there was a press conference last week announcing that one of them was signed (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]i don’t see any reason to believe that the competitive advantage gained from exploiting the new rules will approach the magnitude of the competitive advantage from exploiting the old ones.[/quote]
Probably not, but it will eventually when the the small market teams still can’t afford to keep their players they developed. The Cubs can sign them up like Pittsburgh is like their AAA team again. or trade for them a little easier because the Pirates won’t be getting compensation when they sign with someone else in free agency.
The talent will continue to flow to the major markets, which the Cubs are. I’m not concerned. It just won’t be as sneaky and as cheap as we thought when Theo first took over.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m surprised that there hasn’t been a peep about the Cubs shopping Byrd, or planning on doing anything with him at all. I wonder if the plan is to move him to RF
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]The fact is that athletes don’t gain much by turning down a max offer. If you offer the max and they say no, then they wait a year, and get offered the max again. Unless they think they can impress someone enough to warrant the taxes, I think we’ll just see players agreeing to the max. Maybe that’s wrong, but a player is going to have to be twice as special now to get a team to agree to basically choose them as their draft pick for this draft AND the next.[/quote]
i agree, and it’s completely separate from my point.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I don’t think I’d understand the dialog running in reverse[/quote]time of waste a be would it so true probably that’s.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Probably not, but it will eventually when the the small market teams still can’t afford to keep their players they developed. The Cubs can sign them up like Pittsburgh is like their AAA team again. or trade for them a little easier because the Pirates won’t be getting compensation when they sign with someone else in free agency.
The talent will continue to flow to the major markets, which the Cubs are. I’m not concerned. It just won’t be as sneaky and as cheap as we thought when Theo first took over.[/quote]
yes, that’s probably true, but, man, those are long term effects.
it’s just frustrating that for years now, some of us have been pining for the cubs to drop many millions of dollars into the draft/ifa. finally they do it, and sign a gm who’s plan is to continue doing it indefinitely, and the rules are immediately changed.
GWQuote Reply
Greg Maddux ——> joining Mike in TX
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’m surprised that there hasn’t been a peep about the Cubs shopping Byrd, or planning on doing anything with him at all. I wonder if the plan is to move him to RF[/quote]
He’d be a pretty cheap already in-house guy. Maybe give pointers to BJax in CF. I don’t really mind if Byrd stays as I’m not actually sure what he’d net in trade.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Good lord the Cubs offense sucks. I wonder if they can sign both Pujols and Fielder like in my dreams.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think Montanez filed for free agency, so take him off your list of best Cubs.
Suburban kid 22Quote Reply
Only Mark Derosa can save this team.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Yoda]time of waste a be would it so true probably that’s.[/quote]
fixed
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’m surprised that there hasn’t been a peep about the Cubs shopping Byrd, or planning on doing anything with him at all. I wonder if the plan is to move him to RF[/quote]Read a passing note earlier today in one article that was fairly certain they would trade him by mid season. Sounded reasonable to me.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]time of waste a be would it so true probably that’s.[/quote]I never said to watch the episodes themselves backwards, just to watch them in reverse order. You would know what people were doing, but not why. Then eventually you’d be like “OH! Jesse was his student! I always wondered how they met.”
binkyQuote Reply
In order to understand how much teams are diverting to the draft we have to look at all of this a lot more closely. The team with the top pick is going to pay more because they’re picking at the top of the round 50 times. How were teams diverting money to the draft prior to the new CBA? The Cubs spent a club record of $20 million on amateur talent last year. $11 million of that was the draft. The Pirates led the way by spending $17 million. You look at other teams that picked early in the draft and one could easily say the Cubs didn’t spent enough in the draft. That’s not really relevant. The point is that we have to know how much teams are spending based on what slot they picking from.
Another obvious exploit is picking guys in the early rounds who will not sign so you can draft someone else to give that person more money. Every year there are a lot of high school players that aren’t going to sign after being drafted. Pick one of them knowing they won’t sign so you can sign another guy and pay him more than slot.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]yes, that’s probably true, but, man, those are long term effects.
it’s just frustrating that for years now, some of us have been pining for the cubs to drop many millions of dollars into the draft/ifa. finally they do it, and sign a gm who’s plan is to continue doing it indefinitely, and the rules are immediately changed.[/quote]Yep, it kind of sucks. I’d think it would suck a lot more if I still felt the only way this team can contend is through their farm system. I’m confident Thoyer can build a quality system without the advantages they once had and I’m confident they can build a good team at the MLB level. If they kept Hendry I’d be really pissed off at this.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]In order to understand how much teams are diverting to the draft we have to look at all of this a lot more closely. The team with the top pick is going to pay more because they’re picking at the top of the round 50 times. How were teams diverting money to the draft prior to the new CBA? The Cubs spent a club record of $20 million on amateur talent last year. $11 million of that was the draft. The Pirates led the way by spending $17 million. You look at other teams that picked early in the draft and one could easily say the Cubs didn’t spent enough in the draft. That’s not really relevant. The point is that we have to know how much teams are spending based on what slot they picking from.
Another obvious exploit is picking guys in the early rounds who will not sign so you can draft someone else to give that person more money. Every year there are a lot of high school players that aren’t going to sign after being drafted. Pick one of them knowing they won’t sign so you can sign another guy and pay him more than slot.[/quote]It’s like a chess game. Since you don’t want to wait too long or the guy you really want gets snatched up.
binkyQuote Reply
Ricketts pipes up on stuff, Theo, as usual, has no comment on anything ever. Which I like. A lot.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-ricketts-megadeal-decision-on-fielder-or-pujols-up-to-epstein-20111129,0,646634.story
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yep, it kind of sucks. I’d think it would suck a lot more if I still felt the only way this team can contend is through their farm system. I’m confident Thoyer can build a quality system without the advantages they once had and I’m confident they can build a good team at the MLB level. If they kept Hendry I’d be really pissed off at this.[/quote]That’s a good point. Hendry’s biggest shortcoming seemed to be this, but now they are more well rounded front office wise, and it seems like they’ll eventually be able to absorb this. Maybe it just takes longer.
binkyQuote Reply
Kaplan is tweeting the Cubs are working on an extension for Kenney. Wtf!
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Ricketts pipes up on stuff, Theo, as usual, has no comment on anything ever. Which I like. A lot.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-ricketts-megadeal-decision-on-fielder-or-pujols-up-to-epstein-20111129,0,646634.story%5B/quote%5DThey really are keeping things close to the chest. So whatever they end up doing will be a pleasant and/or terrible surprise, to be reported in July.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He has a bunch of stuff from an interview with Ricketts FYI
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo]He has a bunch of stuff from an interview with Ricketts FYI[/quote]WAs he able to figure out who owned the team? That story is still waiting to be broken.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo]Kaplan is tweeting the Cubs are working on an extension for Kenney. Wtf![/quote]Kenney is on the business side.
mb21Quote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I don’t think I’d understand the dialog running in reverse[/quote]I think roughly only 40% of Season 4 actually contained dialogue. And half of that was subtitled. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
Didn’t they release Montanez?
Also, these do seem a smidgen low to me. I mean, I’m sure they’ll suck, but I’m not sure they’ll suck quite that much.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Didn’t they release Montanez?
Also, these do seem a smidgen low to me. I mean, I’m sure they’ll suck, but I’m not sure they’ll suck quite that much.[/quote]I think he was out of options or whatever. They removed him for the 40-man, and I don’t think he signed with the AAA team or anything.
binkyQuote Reply
I got rid of Montanez. I didn’t know he wasn’t around anymore.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I got rid of Montanez. I didn’t know he was around anymore.[/quote]That’s what Thoyer said.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I got rid of Montanez. I didn’t know he wasn’t around anymore.[/quote]I think those were the exact words Theo used.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I got rid of Montanez. I didn’t know he wasn’t around anymore.[/quote]The Cubs took him to a nice farm upstate to live with all the other young, exciting prospects that didn’t pan out. There he can run in the fields with Josh Kroeger and Micah Hoffpauir.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]The Cubs took him to a nice farm upstate to live with all the other young, exciting prospects that didn’t pan out. There he can run in the fields with Josh Kroeger and Micah Hoffpauir.[/quote]Sooooo is it in Japan? I bet it’s in Japan.
binkyQuote Reply
MB, did they do a projection on Yoenis Cespedes?
Have any of the projection systems?
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Moral of the story:
White people look like zombies when they party hard.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Gene Lamont ———–> no longer candidate for Red Sox job
Bobby Valentine ———-> probably managing the Red Sox
Red Sox players ———-> better have fun out there, or else
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Moral of the story:
White people look like zombies when they party hard.[/quote]Phew, I’m in the clear.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]MB, did they do a projection on Yoenis Cespedes?
Have any of the projection systems?[/quote]I don’t believe there was. I haven’t seen one yet. He’ll be difficult to project.
mb21Quote Reply
If or when Cespedes signs I’d expect that Oliver and PECOTA will do one for a projection for him. Maybe even CAIRO.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/11/getting-past-the-knee-jerk-reactions-to-baseball%E2%80%99s-new-cba-36581
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/11/getting-past-the-knee-jerk-reactions-to-baseball%E2%80%99s-new-cba-36581[/quote]I liked that article. Did the CBA specify who assigns the recommended slot payments? If it’s the commish then he can definitely be proactive about adjusting limits so teams don’t shy away from the domestic draft or international signings as in the concluding paragraphs.
Also, I thought Selig was done at the end of 2012 and it would take more than a year to assess how the CBA affects transactions. Is there any indication as to who the new commissioner might be?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t believe there was. I haven’t seen one yet. He’ll be difficult to project.[/quote]Yeah. That’s why I was wondering if they had even tried.
Let’s say these rumors about the Cubs going after Pujols or Fielder are true, plus they exert their energy on landing the top international talent now in the last year they can without restriction. Suddenly having Cespedes and Pujols (let’s say) in that lineup doesn’t look nearly as bad.
Jackson RF
LaHair LF
Castro SS
Pujols 1B
Soto C
Cespedes CF
DeWitt 3B
Barney 2B
Definite holes, but the defense is better.
Then plug Darvish into the rotation with Dempster, Garza and the mixed bag of Z, Wells, and some reasonably priced vets on the market for the other 2 spots and they won’t win a World Series, but there is an argument they could take the division against a Pujols-less Cardinals, and Fielder-less Brewers.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Plus, it won’t fuck them long-term since Dempster and Z are off the books next year no matter what and Soriano will be one more year closer to being gone.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Gene Lamont ———–> no longer candidate for Red Sox job
Bobby Valentine ———-> probably managing the Red Sox
Red Sox players ———-> better have fun out there, or else[/quote]
Pete Abraham:
.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I want Yu Darvish more than anyone who is available.
mb21Quote Reply
Since we’re dreaming, Garza, Darvish and Dempster would potentially make a damn good 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I want Yu Darvish more than anyone who is available.[/quote]
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Since we’re dreaming, Garza, Darvish and Dempster would potentially make a damn good 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation.[/quote]
Yeah, the reality of this is unlikely, but I don’t think it is as impossible as we once thought for a team that isn’t immediately considered a contender. The problem with all of these rumors, is that we will inevitably be let down.
If they managed to get Pujols, Darvish, Cespedes, and that Soler kid, I’d name any future unborn child “Theo” whether it was a boy or a girl.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Actually, I won’t be let down. I don’t expect the Cubs to get anybody that costs money this season other than guys who cost a million or two. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they acquire anyone like we’ve been talking about.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Yeah. That’s why I was wondering if they had even tried.
Let’s say these rumors about the Cubs going after Pujols or Fielder are true, plus they exert their energy on landing the top international talent now in the last year they can without restriction. Suddenly having Cespedes and Pujols (let’s say) in that lineup doesn’t look nearly as bad.
Jackson RF
LaHair LF
Castro SS
Pujols 1B
Soto C
Cespedes CF
DeWitt 3B
Barney 2B
Definite holes, but the defense is better.
Then plug Darvish into the rotation with Dempster, Garza and the mixed bag of Z, Wells, and some reasonably priced vets on the market for the other 2 spots and they won’t win a World Series, but there is an argument they could take the division against a Pujols-less Cardinals, and Fielder-less Brewers.[/quote]
again, the international cap only applies to players under 23, no? so darvish and cespedes- types will continue to be immune.
GWQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]again, the international cap only applies to players under 23, no? so darvish and cespedes- types will continue to be immune.[/quote]
I always forget that. I’m still going to eat dinner though, because Theo is pro-dinner.
Aisle424Quote Reply
By any future unborn child do you mean your own child or another person’s?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]again, the international cap only applies to players under 23, no? so darvish and cespedes- types will continue to be immune.[/quote]Based on what I know it’s 23 and under (that much is clear) and Japanese players aren’t included.
mb21Quote Reply
The Cubs could get Darvish and Cespedes. It would cost them a lot of money, but they could do it. It’s an advantage a team like the Cubs still have so I expect it to be taken advantage of. Don’t know if they’ll do it this year, but in future years I do think they will.
mb21Quote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
MLBTR says Valentine —> Red Sox manager
Guess the news can only be confirmed on their timetable.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Let’s say these rumors about the Cubs going after Pujols or Fielder are true, plus they exert their energy on landing the top international talent now in the last year they can without restriction. Suddenly having Cespedes and Pujols (let’s say) in that lineup doesn’t look nearly as bad.
Jackson RF
LaHair LF
Castro SS
Pujols 1B
Soto C
Cespedes CF
DeWitt 3B
Barney 2B
Definite holes, but the defense is better.
Then plug Darvish into the rotation with Dempster, Garza and the mixed bag of Z, Wells, and some reasonably priced vets on the market for the other 2 spots and they won’t win a World Series, but there is an argument they could take the division against a Pujols-less Cardinals, and Fielder-less Brewers.[/quote]Well, sure. But that’s basically the same as (or one step lower than) the plan MB wrote up a month or two ago of spending $1.7 Fuckload to get the three top FAs available. I guess it’s not quite that since Darvish and Cespedes will likely be neither quite as good or quite as expensive as CJ Wilson and… who was it? Reyes? But it’s still the “spend a fuckload of money and get good next year” strategy.
fang2415Quote Reply
I guess also that if you sign all Darvish and Cespedes instead of Wilson and Reyes, you don’t have to backload as much and don’t pay any draft compensation. Soo… yeah, go on then. Do it.
fang2415Quote Reply
Aisley’s fantasy plan is awesome.
Engage!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]I guess also that if you sign all Darvish and Cespedes instead of Wilson and Reyes, you don’t have to backload as much and don’t pay any draft compensation. Soo… yeah, go on then. Do it.[/quote]Yeah, I was just going to say it’s actually quite different than the “plan” I drew up. Cespedes will get about $30 million for 6 years. He’d essentially replace Reyes in my plan who will get about $100 million.
I don’t think 424 is suggesting it would happen and I don’t think it would. I’m pretty sure he’d agree, but it’s more plausible than what I suggested as an option to contend.
mb21Quote Reply
Cubs payroll, including estimated arbitration figures, auto-renewal players and additional 40-man roster players is about $100 million. Cespedes adds $5 million. Darvish adds $20 million. Pujols adds $30 million. If you don’t backload any of the contracts you could sign these guys and have a payroll of about $155 million. You could backload them just a little bit and get the 2012 payroll to about $145 million.
mb21Quote Reply
What I read said Bobby V is for sure in with the Red Sox
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Cubs payroll, including estimated arbitration figures, auto-renewal players and additional 40-man roster players is about $100 million. Cespedes adds $5 million. Darvish adds $20 million. Pujols adds $30 million. If you don’t backload any of the contracts you could sign these guys and have a payroll of about $155 million. You could backload them just a little bit and get the 2012 payroll to about $145 million.[/quote]
Isn’t Darvish going to have a monster posting fee as well?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Isn’t Darvish going to have a monster posting fee as well?[/quote]It’s going to be Godzilla.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Isn’t Darvish going to have a monster posting fee as well?[/quote]But, yeah, I wonder if that gets factored into the payroll, or if that comes out of something else.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Cubs payroll, including estimated arbitration figures, auto-renewal players and additional 40-man roster players is about $100 million. Cespedes adds $5 million. Darvish adds $20 million. Pujols adds $30 million. If you don’t backload any of the contracts you could sign these guys and have a payroll of about $155 million. You could backload them just a little bit and get the 2012 payroll to about $145 million.[/quote]Since they can’t spend monster amounts on the draft, I wonder if they’ll funnel that back into the club. $145 seems attainable. I could be just dreaming
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Isn’t Darvish going to have a monster posting fee as well?[/quote]I was including the posting fee. I figured $50 million posting fee and $50 million contract. Some think he’ll get more than Dice-K and he probably should, but I think teams will use Dice-K as an example of how he was overpaid. I think the posting fee for Darvish is about the same.
mb21Quote Reply
I guess also that if you sign all Darvish and Cespedes instead of Wilson and Reyes, you don’t have to backload as much and don’t pay any draft compensation. Soo… yeah, go on then. Do it.[quote name=mb21]Cubs payroll, including estimated arbitration figures, auto-renewal players and additional 40-man roster players is about $100 million. Cespedes adds $5 million. Darvish adds $20 million. Pujols adds $30 million. If you don’t backload any of the contracts you could sign these guys and have a payroll of about $155 million. You could backload them just a little bit and get the 2012 payroll to about $145 million.[/quote]Yeah, I guess it would actually sort of split the difference between the spending-spree plan and the slow-rebuild plan, in nearly every way: cost, risk, and time needed to turn the org around.
Me —-> convinced. Want.
fang2415Quote Reply
Why does my comment box never clear itself out after I post? I must have forgotten to send in my subscription fee.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Why does my comment box never clear itself out after I post? I must have forgotten to send in my subscription fee.[/quote]Scratch that, apparently it *sometimes* clears it out. So when it doesn’t, it’s like a nice little treat.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
I don’t think 424 is suggesting it would happen and I don’t think it would. I’m pretty sure he’d agree, but it’s more plausible than what I suggested as an option to contend.[/quote]
No, I don’t think it will happen, but I think it is more likely than when Hendry was running the team.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m also worried that if they do make a big splash, they go for Fielder. I’m less and less comfortable with his weight and his potential for massive drop-off, especially considering he wouldn’t be falling from as high a perch.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Yeah, I guess it would actually sort of split the difference between the spending-spree plan and the slow-rebuild plan, in nearly every way: cost, risk, and time needed to turn the org around.
Me —-> convinced. Want.[/quote]It also splits the difference on how much you fuck your team up five years down the road. (I assume Darvish and Cespedes won’t require zillion-year contracts? Plus they’re young. Like, actual young, not Cubs young.)
I do like this the more I think about it. Part of the problem with doing a spending spree this year is that the FA market is strong but shallow. When you consider all the international guys it basically makes the market deeper, so you can do a slightly less drastic jump-start while still keeping the resources to build your org from the bottom.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m also worried that if they do make a big splash, they go for Fielder. I’m less and less comfortable with his weight and his potential for massive drop-off, especially considering he wouldn’t be falling from as high a perch.[/quote]I’m also getting more worried about that, but I think it’s just because of seeing that hamburger picture. (dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
It is hard not to hear every beat writer talk about how Prince is a better fit and not separate that from the fact that Theo and the Superfriends probably aren’t drawing their conclusions from the same stupid information that the writers hold in such esteem.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It is hard not to hear every beat writer talk about how Prince is a better fit and not separate that from the fact that Theo and the Superfriends probably aren’t drawing their conclusions from the same stupid information that the writers hold in such esteem.[/quote]Fielder would probably be cheaper and he’s also younger so those points are legitimate. I still think Pujols is better for longer though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Levine said something like, “The only thing that Pujols does better than Prince is batting average and defense.”
A) who gives a fuck about batting average any more, B) defense is supposed to be a big deal to the Superfriends, C) Pujols has shown he can sustain ridiculous numbers a lot more consistently than Fielder, so poopooing that seems ridiculous.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Fielder would probably be cheaper and he’s also younger so those points are legitimate. I still think Pujols is better for longer though.[/quote]Probably not a lot cheaper and Fielder pretty much has to stay at his current levels for us to not hate him. Pujols can probably have another “off year” like this one and still be a shit-ton better than anything we’ve seen since 2005 Derrek Lee.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Pujols is not left-handed.
/Inigo’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m also worried that if they do make a big splash, they go for Fielder. I’m less and less comfortable with his weight and his potential for massive drop-off, especially considering he wouldn’t be falling from as high a perch.[/quote]After the last thread, I’m definitely warming to Pujols. If he can sustain a 6 WAR with a minus 0.5 over the next 7 years, that still puts him above what we have now. The guy has proven durable. I wouldn’t be completely torn up if they got him. I might even do a little victory dance.
binkyQuote Reply
-0.5 WAR decline? Uh… it made sense in my head.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]-0.5 WAR decline? Uh… it made sense in my head.[/quote]
I would love it if Pujols declined -0.5 WAR over the length of his contract. By the time his contract ends he’d have 700 HR (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Plus, I fear that if the Cubs don’t sign Pujols, he will return to the Cards on their terms, which I don’t like.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Plus, I fear that if the Cubs don’t sign Pujols, he will return to the Cards on their terms, which I don’t like.[/quote]Now it’s a waiting game to see whether Pujols has team loyalty, or whether his ego entices him to leave. I liked the 7/$210MM with options attached idea you guys had earlier to try to outmaneuver the Cards and other potential suitors.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m pretty amazed that a sabermetric org. like Boston would hire Bobby V.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Levine said something like, “The only thing that Pujols does better than Prince is batting average and defense.”
A) who gives a fuck about batting average any more, B) defense is supposed to be a big deal to the Superfriends, C) Pujols has shown he can sustain ridiculous numbers a lot more consistently than Fielder, so poopooing that seems ridiculous.[/quote]
Someone needs to make a “stop poopooing” Rob Lowe gif (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I’m pretty amazed that a sabermetric org. like Boston would hire Bobby V.[/quote]Sometimes you just have to trust your gut.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Maybe they should bring back Ortiz with a long-term mega-deal.
ACTQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/cba-links-weiner-draft.html
The new CBA apparently has an extra compensation and less draft rounds. Seems the extra comp year was thrown in to protect teams who didn’t want to go significantly over slot in order to sign a guy and incur penalties without too much penalty.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Someone needs to make a “stop poopooing” Rob Lowe gif (dying laughing)[/quote]Don’t tell us what to do.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It is hard not to hear every beat writer talk about how Prince is a better fit and not separate that from the fact that Theo and the Superfriends probably aren’t drawing their conclusions from the same stupid information that the writers hold in such esteem.[/quote]I actually think the writers are right in this instance, but it entirely depends on what kind of contract Fielder would be getting. If both are coming at 8-year deals I want Pujols. If Pujols is 8-years and Fielder 5-years I want Fielder.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I actually think the writers are right in this instance, but it entirely depends on what kind of contract Fielder would be getting. If both are coming at 8-year deals I want Pujols. If Pujols is 8-years and Fielder 5-years I want Fielder.[/quote]I wonder if Fielder will have more suitors because he’s cheaper. If so, then if the Cubs decide they want Pujols, they may have to act before Fielder officially decides anything, so that could throw a wrench into the works.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I wonder if Fielder will have more suitors because he’s cheaper. If so, then if the Cubs decide they want Pujols, they may have to act before Fielder officially decides anything, so that could throw a wrench into the works.[/quote]
I think Fielder is going to sign last. Pujols already has a great offer on the table and I don’t think there are going to be many teams coming in late on the bidding. I don’t think teams are going to offer Fielder what he wants so he’ll wait. I’d be shocked if he signs before mid-January, if not even later.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I think Fielder is going to sign last. Pujols already has a great offer on the table and I don’t think there are going to be many teams coming in late on the bidding. I don’t think teams are going to offer Fielder what he wants so he’ll wait. I’d be shocked if he signs before mid-January, if not even later.[/quote]So they’re going to have to get a good feel for the market on Fielder quickly, if they are serious about making a move on one of them.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]So they’re going to have to get a good feel for the market on Fielder quickly, if they are serious about making a move on one of them.[/quote]
It’s extremely possible that I’m underestimating the amount of cash/years a team like Washington or Seattle might throw at Fielder.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Old-Navy-forgot-to-fact-check-its-new-collegiate?urn=ncaaf-wp10750
mb21 —> no longer a patron of Old Navy
(dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That’s what I’m thinking, that one of them will be desperate enough to give him a really big contract, especially the Mariners, since they can use him as DH.
binkyQuote Reply
Personally, I’d take The Fugitive over The Blues Brothers. I’m assuming TDK is ineligible due to it actually not being set in Chicago.
MishQuote Reply
Rocket Boys was the book, October Sky was the movie for WV (also one of my favorite movies of all time)
BerseliusQuote Reply
They definitely got the right one for NJ (also one of my favorite movies ever)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]
Personally, I’d take The Fugitive over The Blues Brothers. I’m assuming TDK is ineligible due to it actually not being set in Chicago.[/quote]
I disagree. Blues Brothers FTW.
How can Ohio be anything but “Major League”? I’m disappointed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]
Personally, I’d take The Fugitive over The Blues Brothers. I’m assuming TDK is ineligible due to it actually not being set in Chicago.[/quote](dying laughing) @ Wayne’s World
fang2415Quote Reply
Super Troopers is like the only possible choice for Vermont (dying laughing)
Very cool list.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Man, 4 of my top 5 favorite movies ever are on that map.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]
Personally, I’d take The Fugitive over The Blues Brothers. I’m assuming TDK is ineligible due to it actually not being set in Chicago.[/quote]But the Fugitive doesn’t include a reference to Lower Wacker Drive. What about that one movie where Jim Belushi breaks out of prison to watch the Cubs win the World Series. It was godawful, but…..
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]But the Fugitive doesn’t include a reference to Lower Wacker Drive. What about that one movie where Jim Belushi breaks out of prison to watch the Cubs win the World Series. It was godawful, but…..[/quote]
How can you guys forget Brewster’s Millions?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Man, 4 of my top 5 favorite movies ever are on that map.[/quote]The Goonies and what else?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]How can Ohio be anything but “Major League”? I’m disappointed.[/quote]If you haven’t seen Gummo, I doubt you’ll understand. That movie makes me laugh every time I remember that it’s set in Ohio.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]How can you guys forget Brewster’s Millions?[/quote]Ten million! Ten million! Ten million dollars!
Ten million! Ten million! Ten million dollars!
binkyQuote Reply
They should move Fargo to ND and put Mighty Ducks for Minnesota
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]But the Fugitive doesn’t include a reference to Lower Wacker Drive. What about that one movie where Jim Belushi breaks out of prison to watch the Cubs win the World Series. It was godawful, but…..[/quote]I would agree since the Fugitive has more stuff about the non-Chicago parts of the state. But then I remember how when I was in Italy and I told people I was from Chicago, they all went “Ah! Blues Brothers!” So I guess that counts for something.
And besides, fuck the rest of the state. (dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]If you haven’t seen Gummo, I doubt you’ll understand. That movie makes me laugh every time I remember that it’s set in Ohio.[/quote]I’ll have to check it out then.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]The Goonies and what else?[/quote]
Top 5, no particular order is
Clerks
Shawshank
October Sky
Blues Brothers
Empire Strikes Back
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]They should move Fargo to ND and put Mighty Ducks for Minnesota[/quote]Yeah, but almost the entire movie is set in Minnesota, only the initial shady meeting takes place in Fargo. Besides, it features the Minnesota accent so explicitly, it has to be a Minnesota movie.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Top 5, no particular order is
Clerks
Shawshank
October Sky
Blues Brothers
Empire Strikes Back[/quote]You misspelled Goonies.
Shawshank was good. I actually liked the movie better than the novella, which is pretty rare.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
Empire Strikes Back[/quote]
Alaska?
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]I would agree since the Fugitive has more stuff about the non-Chicago parts of the state. But then I remember how when I was in Italy and I told people I was from Chicago, they all went “Ah! Blues Brothers!” So I guess that counts for something.
And besides, fuck the rest of the state. (dying laughing)[/quote]I don’t think any scenes were filmed in Champaign. Which is too bad, as we have some amazing…..uh…. perfectly straight streets here,
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]They should move Fargo to ND and put Mighty Ducks for Minnesota[/quote]Fargo wasn’t actually set in ND except for the beginning and the end, right? But I really can’t argue with you today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing) @ Wayne’s World[/quote]
Why is Wayne’s World in Delaware?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Man, 4 of my top 5 favorite movies ever are on that map.[/quote]Jesus Camp, Jesus Camp (Again), First Blood and The Goonies?
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t know how Kentucky Fried Movie isn’t the Kentucky selection.
Also, I would argue Fletch for Utah.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Alaska?[/quote]It may have a spot once the Americans annex Hoth and Dagobah.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Why is Wayne’s World in Delaware?[/quote]Yeah, that makes no sense. It’s set in Aurora.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Why is Wayne’s World in Delaware?[/quote]Lemme Youtube that for ya…if it’s available, but you should watch it again anyway.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Jesus Camp, Jesus Camp (Again), First Blood and The Goonies?[/quote]
You’re forgetting the instructional video “Red Dawn”
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Why is Wayne’s World in Delaware?[/quote]When they are testing out the green screen and they keep getting scenes of different states behind them and they start doing all the stereotypes associated with the state. Then they get to Delaware:
“Hey!…. We’re in Delaware.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/projections/2012-cubs-oliver-projections-part-2.html
mb21Quote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQEwJdhfddk[/quote]I forgot that was actually in the movie. I was thinking that was from the SNL skit.
binkyQuote Reply