Our current 2012 roster has a payroll of roughly $100 million and this year’s payroll was $135 million. Our team is roughly a 73 win team so we need to add a lot of wins with $35-40 million. We have a couple holes so let’s start there and look at the available free agents. Actually, let’s start with either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. Then we’ll get to Sabathia. Yeah, we’re going to sign sign some really good players with the Cubs money. Hey, they are the ones who want to contend.
ZiPS projects Pujols to hit .402 (wOBA) the rest of the way while it projects Fielder to hit .396. Pujols is the much better fielder and he’s going to cost a lot more than Fielder will. Pujols is also older and will likely require a longer contract. Fielder isn’t as good as Pujols, but I don’t know that the difference is significant enough to hand out the kind of contract that Pujols is going to get. So let’s start with Fielder.
At 27, Fielder is one of the best hitters in the game. He turns 28 next May so he’s in his prime right now. We shouldn’t expect much regression from him and he’s healthy. Since his first full season he’s had no fewer than 648 PA (age 22). Let’s use the the .396 wOBA, -7 fielding and -4 baserunning. Using 650 plate appearances we get 4 WAR. I thought it would be higher, but he is worth more than 1 loss on the bases and defensively combined. The Cubs need to improve at one position more than that so what about Pujols?
A .402 wOBA, 5 runs fielding and 3 on the bases along with 600 plate appearances gives us about 5.6 WAR. Pujols is still the significantly better player and he also offers more upside. While Fielder at this best could probably be expected to provide around 6 wins, Pujols could be up between 8 and 9 pretty easily.
We’ll bump our projection for Pujols up to 6 WAR just because he’s been so much better than 5.6 the last few years with the exception of this season. This season, by the way, is largely to blame on the .245 BABIP that Pujols has posted. Using 5% inflation and the current $4.5 million per win, this is the schedule we get for Pujols over the next 8 years.
| Year | WAR | $WAR |
| 2012 | 6 | 28.4 |
| 2013 | 5.7 | 28.3 |
| 2014 | 5.4 | 28.1 |
| 2015 | 5 | 27.3 |
| 2016 | 4.5 | 25.8 |
| 2017 | 4 | 24.1 |
| 2018 | 3.5 | 22.2 |
| 2019 | 3 | 19.9 |
| Total | 37.1 | 204.2 |
An 8 year, $200 million contract seems reasonable. His down season this year pretty much eliminated any chance he had at a deal worth as much as he was originally seeking. Obviously it would make no sense whatsoever for the Cubs to pay Pujols $28.4% million next season when they have roughly $35-40 million to spend. Let’s pay him $12.5 million next year followed by 20, 25, 28, 28.5, 28.5, 28.5 and $29 million for a total of $200 million.
If the CUbs did this, they add 6 wins and $12.5 million to their team next season. They’d now be a 79 win team and would be spending $112.5 million.
The other obvious hole our roster had was a starting pitcher. I would say there’s a strong chance that CC Sabathia opts out of his contract with the Yankees and becomes a free agent. The Yankees will want to re-sign him and they always have the money, but other than Sabathia, the free agent pitcher list doesn’t have much. If you run the numbers for Sabathia’s projections, you get about 5 WAR for next year. Sabathia has 4 years and $92 million left on his contract so you’re going to have to top that.
Is 6 years, $120 million good enough? For this exercise, let’s say it is. We’re just making shit up anyway so whatever. We’ll pay Sabathia the following amounts over those 6 years (in millions): $10, $15 , $20, $25, $25 and $25. The Cubs are now at about 84 wins and $122.5 million.
The Cubs are obviously in contention now and they have another $12.5 million to spend. The Cubs could use an extra outfielder and a platoon partner for Alfonso Soriano would be a nice addition. Jack Cust is having a down season this year for the Mariners and is a free agent. He’s crushed righties in his career and could probably be signed for cheap. He’s not even making $3 million this year so there’s no reason the Cubs couldn’t acquire him for $2 million or less. Adding Cust to platoon with Soriano greatly improves LF for the Cubs. The defense will suck, but they’ll hit the ball very well.
Also vacant is RF and a trade might be a good option here. If they can add a couple wins in RF by trading some prospects, they’re up the 87 win mark and more than likely under $130 million. Barely under, but still under. They still have enough room to add another win or so and remain at or even under $135 million.
The payroll will begin to increase in 2013 and 2014, but if the Cubs want to contend in 2012 they’re going to have to spend money and acquire top free agents in doig so. There’s really no other way this team can contend unless they get some extremely favorable trades that fall into their laps, which is unlikely. It’s less likely than the Cubs signing the two best free agents available.
So there you go. Your 2012 Cubs team that is a contender. It’s not my money so I don’t actually care how they spend it. It’s a plan that likely puts the Cubs in a similar situation that they find themselves now, but for a short-term fix, this is the way to go.
In the next and final part we’ll look at the 2012 Cubs in a more realistic sense than this part. Has a team ever signed the two best free agents in one offseason? Has any team other than the Yankees done it? I don’t even know if the Yankees have, but it’s doubtful any other team has done so in recent years.
Comments
Yes…
Oh.
MishQuote Reply
I can always count on you guys for top-notch analysis.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m going to hazard a guess that the Cubs will have to go above that $135MM payroll threshold to get Pujols and Sabathia…and that’s before they look for another Type A free agent to max out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think they could get them for what I have above. I’m confident of that. Players take backloaded deals all the time so I actually don’t think that’s a concern. The issue is payroll in the future and how quickly that team becomes this team. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
It would actually make me sad to have the Cubs be the direct cause of Albert Pujols’ downfall…
I’d hate to see him get booed as he declines. Such a great player.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think they could get them for what I have above. I’m confident of that. Players take backloaded deals all the time so I actually don’t think that’s a concern. The issue is payroll in the future and how quickly that team becomes this team. (dying laughing)[/quote]Exactly. And I be a lot less worried about that if Hendry and Tommy Boy were willing to undergo a for real fire sale now to stock the farm for then. And that’s exactly how you sell it to the fans. But Ricketts and Hendry have given no indication whatsoever that they’re willing to do so, and so I worry a great deal about “fixing” a broken org by replacing a one set of backloaded deals to players already at the peak with yet another set of backloaded deals to players already at their peak. It only makes sense to do this if you can re-tool the farm so that when the big money years on those deal start to hit, you’ve got some talent on the farm to come up and play cheap to mitigate the impact of those big money years on the backloaded deals. The Cubs didn’t do this right the first time around, and it doesn’t seem like they have learned from their mistakes.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Exactly. And I be a lot less worried about that if Hendry and Tommy Boy were willing to undergo a for real fire sale now to stock the farm for then. And that’s exactly how you sell it to the fans. But Ricketts and Hendry have given no indication whatsoever that they’re willing to do so, and so I worry a great deal about “fixing” a broken org by replacing a one set of backloaded deals to players already at the peak with yet another set of backloaded deals to players already at their peak. It only makes sense to do this if you can re-tool the farm so that when the big money years on those deal start to hit, you’ve got some talent on the farm to come up and play cheap to mitigate the impact of those big money years on the backloaded deals. The Cubs didn’t do this right the first time around, and it doesn’t seem like they have learned from their mistakes.[/quote]
They’ll have a nice pick this year on account of their shitty record. Would either Pena or Fukudome net a compensation pick if they leave via free agency? That could help restock the system in time for the next round of back-loaded contracts to expire (provided they don’t trade handfuls of them at a time between now and then).
Aisle424Quote Reply
Also, how does it work if a team declines an option on a player? Do they get a compensation pick when they sign with someone else?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]They’ll have a nice pick this year on account of their shitty record. Would either Pena or Fukudome net a compensation pick if they leave via free agency? That could help restock the system in time for the next round of back-loaded contracts to expire (provided they don’t trade handfuls of them at a time between now and then).[/quote]I’m not sure about Peña. I’d be shocked if Fukudome is a Type A, though. Ramirez will certainly be, I would think, even taking last season into account, so long as he keeps hitting. So the Cubs could ostensibly end up with 3 high picks, assuming both Ramirez and Peña leave. I’d still rather they trade Ramirez than let him walk. But there’s certainly something to be said for keeping him, offering him arb, and taking the pick when he walks.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Also, how does it work if a team declines an option on a player? Do they get a compensation pick when they sign with someone else?[/quote]
I think the option has to be dropped, then they are offered arbitration, and then if they decline the arbitration then the team gets the comp pick.
Obviously they’d have to sign somewhere else first before the comp pick is awarded, forgot about that part. I don’t think the option does anything especially if it’s a team option.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Also, how does it work if a team declines an option on a player? Do they get a compensation pick when they sign with someone else?[/quote]I’m not sure, actually. That might be something Dierkes has on hand at MLBTR.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’m looking forward to an update on the poll regarding the Cubs top prospects…
adnielsenQuote Reply
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_Draft#Compensatory_picks
This year the arb deadline for free agents is December 7th. I don’t think the status of options does anything…if the player option is declined by the player, or the team option is declined by the team, I think the player becomes a free agent by default. At that point the team can offer arb, and if declined, and the guy signs somewhere else, the comp pick is awarded. I don’t know if it gets much more complicated than that though.
I recall last season Toronto took advantage of this by trading for Miguel Olivo, then let him walk and pocketed a comp pick. AL East teams are pretty dastardly at snatching up comp picks (particularly Toronto and Tampa).
(I’m aware that the source is Wikipedia but it is in line with what I know of the compensation process)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=adnielsen]I’m looking forward to an update on the poll regarding the Cubs top prospects…[/quote]Shit. Forgot about that. I’ll get that ready tonight and published sometime tomorrow. Thanks a lot for reminding me.
mb21Quote Reply
RC has it right regarding arbitration. If the Cubs declined Ramirez’s option, paid him the $2 million buyout, they could then offer him arbitration. If he signed with another team the Cubs would get a compensation pick. Ramirez would probably be a type B free agent so the Cubs would get a sandwich round pick. Ramirez could accept arbitration.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]RC has it right regarding arbitration. If the Cubs declined Ramirez’s option, paid him the $2 million buyout, they could then offer him arbitration. If he signed with another team the Cubs would get a compensation pick. Ramirez would probably be a type B free agent so the Cubs would get a sandwich round pick. Ramirez could accept arbitration.[/quote]Well, if he does accept, and hits next year like he is this year, he might end up as a Type A. Given everything his agent has said of late, though, I have to imagine Ramirez will decline any offer before he has a chance to test the FA water, especially since he’s the only solid option at 3B in the next FA market.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_Draft#Compensatory_picks
This year the arb deadline for free agents is December 7th. I don’t think the status of options does anything…if the player option is declined by the player, or the team option is declined by the team, I think the player becomes a free agent by default. At that point the team can offer arb, and if declined, and the guy signs somewhere else, the comp pick is awarded. I don’t know if it gets much more complicated than that though.
I recall last season Toronto took advantage of this by trading for Miguel Olivo, then let him walk and pocketed a comp pick. AL East teams are pretty dastardly at snatching up comp picks (particularly Toronto and Tampa).
(I’m aware that the source is Wikipedia but it is in line with what I know of the compensation process)[/quote]I’d really like to see the Cubs try and start doing this more.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’d really like to see the Cubs try and start doing this more.[/quote]
I thought they might have tried to do this with either Gregg or Harden a couple years back but I guess both of them would’ve just accepted arbitration. Someone here (I forget who) said they thought at least one of them would’ve accepted.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought they might have tried to do this with either Gregg or Harden a couple years back but I guess both of them would’ve just accepted arbitration. Someone here (I forget who) said they thought at least one of them would’ve accepted.[/quote]That whole fiasco with Harden was the beginning of the stupid with this org. At least two teams wanted him (MIN and TEX), and Hendry refused to deal him, and then he just let the guy walk at year’s end. It was the first in what have since then been a long line of odd decisions.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Pena to yankees?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Pena to yankees?[/quote]Don’t they have a logjam at 1B/DH? I’d think Hendry would do better by offering them one of the SP.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Don’t they have a logjam at 1B/DH? I’d think Hendry would do better by offering them one of the SP.[/quote]
I think they would have to release Posada and make either Pena or Teixiera the DH, which really doesn’t make sense as Tex is a switch-hitter and is probably as good defensively as Pena is. So Pena—>Yanks is probably not going to happen.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I was duped. Carlose follows ailse424… Faget
(dying laughing)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/elias-rankings-update-1.html
Here’s some guy’s free agent type projections: Fukudome (B), Ramirez(B), Pena(none). I can’t remember if these projections are based on this year only or a combination of the last few years stats, but Ramirez and Pena could both potentially get bumped to A/B, respectively if they continue to hit.
If I was Donuts, I would eat all of both of their salaries and try to get the best prospects possible in a trade which may not amount to much more than a couple of C-level prospects. I agree that Ramirez would probably turn down arbitration, after his buyout on the team option, and see if he could get a multi-year deal, so that would net a compensation picks.
With these potential compensation picks, I see them taking Gary Gaetti Jr., Cap Anson IV, and Doug Dascenzo II.
adnielsenQuote Reply
[quote name=adnielsen]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/elias-rankings-update-1.html
Here’s some guy’s free agent type projections: Fukudome (B), Ramirez(B), Pena(none). I can’t remember if these projections are based on this year only or a combination of the last few years stats, but Ramirez and Pena could both potentially get bumped to A/B, respectively if they continue to hit.
If I was Donuts, I would eat all of both of their salaries and try to get the best prospects possible in a trade which may not amount to much more than a couple of C-level prospects. I agree that Ramirez would probably turn down arbitration, after his buyout on the team option, and see if he could get a multi-year deal, so that would net a compensation picks.
With these potential compensation picks, I see them taking Gary Gaetti Jr., Cap Anson IV, and Doug Dascenzo II.[/quote]
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=chc
This year’s draft choices seem to be taking a long time to sign. Is it possible they are holding back making announcements on signings (and their bonuses), so it won’t affect other negotiations? For a while, I just thought whoever updated the official website was just lazy…
adnielsenQuote Reply
That’s apparently what’s happening. Rumor is several of the Cubs top picks have already reached an agreement, but Bud is holding them back until the 15th. That rumor even said the Cubs reached a deal with Dillon Maples, who was insistent on going to college. I imagine the Cubs gave him a lot of money to keep him from doing that.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That’s apparently what’s happening. Rumor is several of the Cubs top picks have already reached an agreement, but Bud is holding them back until the 15th. That rumor even said the Cubs reached a deal with Dillon Maples, who was insistent on going to college. I imagine the Cubs gave him a lot of money to keep him from doing that.[/quote]
Yeah, I had heard they got Vogelbach, Maples and Dunston to agree. Nothing on Baez though.
If nothing else, this proved to be somewhat encouraging to see them willing to spend money on the draft like they said they would. This would have been an easy place to skimp again without 99% of the fans ever knowing about it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Series preview up http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/previews/series-preview-iowa-cubs-of-chicago-42-60-at-milwaukee-brewers-54-49.html
BerseliusQuote Reply