2013 Baseball America Top Prospects Teaser

In aside, Minor Leagues by myles26 Comments

Baseball America is one of the leading providers of minor league baseball content. Today, their list came out for the Cubs top prospects. I'm going to tease the list here, and ask you to please support them by subscribing.

1. Javier Baez
2. Kris Bryant
3. C.J. Edwards
4. Albert Almora
5. Jorge Soler
6. Pierce Johnson
7. Arismendy Alcantara
8. Jeimer Candelario
9. Daniel Vogelbach
10. Arodys Vizcaino
 

Best Changeup in the system: Kyle Hendricks
Best Power Hitter: Javier Baez (not Dan Vogelbach, not Kris Bryant, not Jorge Soler)

 

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  5. Tommy

    Really interesting to see Edwards this high. I suspect that is the work of John Manuel, who has FSL sources who said they preferred Edwards to even guys like Syndergaard. If he puts on weight…look out.

    I’m not asking anyone to divulge the full scouting report, but since I don’t have a subscription, does anyone know if Almora and Soler slipped below Edwards due to injury concerns?

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  6. dmick89

    @ Tommy:
    Injuries (and other distractions for Soler) were mentioned, but it didn’t seem to be the reason. Manuel just really really likes Edwards. FWIW, there seemed to be a pretty huge drop after Bryant in terms of excitement. Baez and Bryant were given awesome scouting reports and then it dropped. That’s not to say that the ones for Almora and Soler (and Edwards) aren’t impressive and that they think little of of them. They weren’t and they don’t.

    It just means that maybe when we talk about the big four, we ought to really talk about the big two and then the other top few. There is definitely a difference in terms of what one could reasonably expect from Baez/Bryant and the rest.

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  7. dmick89

    I’ll post some bits from the scouting report here.

    If his defense improves with maturity and experience—reasonable, given his tools—he could force Castro to second or third base. More likely, Baez shifts to second or third, causing a logjam with other Cubs prospects such as Kris Bryant and Arismendy Alcantara.

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  8. dmick89

    Tall, lean and athletic, Bryant has all-star tools. He adjusted as a junior by spreading out in the batter’s box, lowering his head and eliminating his pre-swing movement. He can still get a bit uphill with his swing but now punishes the low ball. He has the leverage and loft in his swing to produce 40 homers annually while being an above-average hitter.

    Also says if he’s fast-tracked, he’ll probably be playing in the outfield.

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  9. dmick89

    He locates his 93-95 mph fastball with excellent riding life and he’s allowed only one pro homer. Edwards’ curveball gives him a second plus pitch with bite and feel in the upper 70s, and he throws a hard slider as well that earns average grades. He uses his changeup sparingly but locked up lefthanded hitters anyway (.175, five extra-base hits in 166 at-bats).

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  10. dmick89

    Almora

    His best tool is his bat, which scouts project as above-average or better. He has a loose swing, present strength and good hand-eye coordination. He uses the whole field, using what one club official calls a “no-ego approach” at the plate.

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  11. dmick89

    Some scouts give Soler 80 raw power, and his arm earns 70 grades from some scouts as well. His defense is average. While Soler wasn’t fully healthy all spring, he also didn’t always give a full effort, and at times he appeared uninspired by playing in the minors.

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  12. dmick89

    His fastball sits in the 90-94 mph range, touching 96 at times. His breaking ball, a power curve in the low 80s, is one of the best in the system, and he has a feel for using it. The Cubs thought Johnson got better in 2013, specifically at using his inconsistent, but at times solid-average, changeup to both lefties and righties. He also excelled at locating his fastball to both sides of the plate.

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  13. dmick89

    He has a plus arm that plays at short but is a true weapon at second base, especially when it comes to turning the double play. His hands are a bit hard and fit better at second, where he has above-average potential. A plus runner with first-step quickness, Alcantara is an adept basestealer, and an improved approach at the plate helped him triple his walk rate, meaning more chances to steal.

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  14. dmick89

    He started realizing his own hot zones as a hitter and hit eight of his 11 homers after July 1. Club officials project him to hit for above-average power when it’s all said and done, with average to above hitting ability. He’s a grinder defensively as well, with modest first-step quickness and below-average speed, but he has enough arm strength for third and solid hands.

    Hey, “grinder” used for someone other than a white middle infielder. I’m impressed.

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  15. dmick89

    Vogelbach’s strength and short swing give him plus power from left-center to the right-field pole. Until he changes his shape, he’s going to contend with questions about his future role. He’s a 20 defender at first with minimal range, though his speed is merely below-average. He sought out his high school track coach to help him with running technique.

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  16. dmick89

    The zip on his mid-90s fastball has returned, and Vizcaino hasn’t lost the snap on his plus curveball either. Before his injury, he had average control, though his fastball command needs to improve. He has a fast arm and tremendous hand speed, and both his heater and curve can elicit swings and misses, even when thrown in the strike zone thanks to their power and late action.

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  17. Tommy

    @ dmick89:

    That’s really interesting. I love seeing the differences in opinion on guys like Almora, who the folks at BP think is a top 10 overall guy.

    In a weird way, the fact that BA isn’t nearly as high on Almora as they are Baez and Bryant makes me more excited about the system. I’m not scout (but I like to pretend to have some ability to judge talent!), but I saw Almora a bunch this season, and I was just giddy. He makes incredibly hard contact and looks very good in the outfield. I don’t know how much power is going to develop (tendency to hit grounders holds him back at moment) but sheer knack for putting the barrel on the ball makes me think he can hit 15-20 in his peak. With well above average defense and batting average, that’s a very valuable dude. And Baez and Bryant are that much better than him. It’s insane

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  18. Tommy

    Man, all those snippets are extremely encouraging. I mean, I know a few of those guys aren’t going to make it, statistically, but it’s simply unreal how deep the system is.

    And I agree with you on the “Big 2 and Others” idea. With Edwards, Johnson, Alcantara all looking like they have above average projection, it’s tough to really say that Soler and Almora, especially with the injury/want/both issues between the two of them, are clearly better prospects

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  19. Author
    Myles

    I am not a big believer in Almora. For all the intangibles and character references he’s received, the kid has 417 PA, never above A. He hit .329/.376/.466 in Kane County before the injury, which is great but not transcendent. He doesn’t have the range to play CF (but plays it really well due to preternatural, Damon-like breaks on the ball), and he doesn’t have the power to be a very good corner OF either. For me, Almora is a very good CF if everything breaks right, but he’s still 2 years away from the majors at the earliest, and in those years he has to avoid injuries (which he hasn’t, though they’ve been of the freak variety) and take some walks (which he hasn’t; 19 in 417 plate appearances – 4.6%, or over a percent worse than Javy Baez). I’d let him go more-or-less instantly for the right piece, and not think twice.

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  20. Author
    Myles

    If I’m making my Top 10 list, I have Baez, Bryant, Soler, and maybe even Johnson and Alcantara before I get to Almora. I still have Almora over Edwards, though.

    That being said, having an organization where a credible argument can be made to put Albert Almora at 6th is insane, and makes me think that the Cubs HAVE to have the best system in the minors. Twins are the only real argument.

    Buxton > Baez
    Bryant push Sano
    Soler > Stewart
    Meyer > Johnson
    Rosario push Alcantara
    Almora > whoever
    Johnson > whoever
    Edwards > whoever

    Really, you could push all of those first 5 (maybe not Buxton), and the Cubs take every other spot going away.

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  21. dmick89

    Tommy wrote:

    And I agree with you on the “Big 2 and Others” idea. With Edwards, Johnson, Alcantara all looking like they have above average projection, it’s tough to really say that Soler and Almora, especially with the injury/want/both issues between the two of them, are clearly better prospects

    Yeah, I agree. We could really break the prospects down that way. There’s Baez and Bryant who offer superstar talent and then there’s a lot of others who offer you all-star talent if it all works out.

    The Cubs need at least one of Baez and Bryant to become close to as good as they hope while getting an above average rate of the others to succeed if they’re to contend. This is especially true since it appears that the Cubs either don’t have the money or simply don’t want to spend it on free agents. It’s probably a combo of the two things, but to me, that’s the one aspect of this team I’m not that entirely thrilled with. You’ve got less room for error if you’re not going to throw your money around like you can.

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  22. dmick89

    @ Myles:
    Agreed. I’m no scout either, but a lot of the Almora love seems to be projection. BA says he can hit for average or better power, but his power hasn’t been that impressive so far. Granted, he’s young for his level and that has to be a consideration, but there are a lot more things that have to go favorably for Almora than some of the others.

    In all honesty, I like the chances of Pierce Johnson to become a mid-rotation starter than I like Almora’s chances of becoming an everyday player. I’m also not convinced that Almora’s ceiling is higher than Johnson’s. In other words, I think Johnson is being underrated by a lot of people. I also think Edwards is being overrated.

    I did a triple take when I saw Edwards 3rd on this list. I’d have only done a double take if Edwards and Johnson switched spots in the top 10.

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  23. Berselius

    Myles wrote:

    He doesn’t have the range to play CF

    Huh, that’s the first time I’ve heard that (yes, I don’t read every word). My impression since the draft has always been that he was a plus defender in CF.

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  24. dmick89

    @ Berselius:
    I can’t talk for Myles, but what I think he meant is that his range is due to other abilities than speed. Speed obviously isn’t everything, but usually an outfielder’s speed will predict his range pretty well. That’s not yet the case for Almora who isn’t all that fast.

    Almora is just an average runner, if not a tick below, but he has premium range in center field thanks to his impeccable breaks on the ball, first-step reactions and passion for playing defense. — Baseball America

    He doesn’t have the range to play CF (but plays it really well due to preternatural, Damon-like breaks on the ball) — Myles

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  25. Author
    Myles

    Yeah, I meant range as in footspeed. He doesn’t run all well, but plays up at CF because of his great instincts. At the risk of sounding wishy-washy, he doesn’t have the physical range for CF, but he has the actual range for it due to being an actual ++ defender at the position.

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  26. Andrew

    Why does it matter what his “physical” range is? The point is that he already is a very good defender and is projected to be a top defensive CFer in the bigs. It’s ok that his bat wont carry in a corner position because he will be a CF. Next year will be big for him I think. If he can hit like he did last year at age 20 in Daytona, I think people will really get excited about him.

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