2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Arismendy Alcantara

In Commentary And Analysis by myles24 Comments

Before this season started, I was about as high on Arismendy Alcantara as anyone. In the Assume the Position on SS, I said that Alcantara would need to increase his walks to elevate his prospect status. I won't ruin the conclusion for you.

Alcantara was signed at 17 in 2009. I don't know his signing bonus, so assume it's low. He played the DSL at 17 and was actually quite good for the league (.275/.349/.415). He played at Boise and Peoria the next 2 years, and each time he lost about 50 points of OPS, but then broke out in 2012. As the full-time SS at Daytona, Arismendy hit .302/.339/.447, good for a .356 wOBA and a wRC+ of 121. He struck out 17% of the time and walked only 5.3%, but he almost doubled his power and knocked his OPS up 131 points with no meaningful change in BABIP. 

Perfomance

Alcantara primarily played SS during the first half of the season, sliding over to 2B when Baez was called up. 2B is better fit for Alcantara anyways, and, he played the position adequately. Even better, Alcantara performed VERY well. He hit .271/.352/.451 with 15 HR (8 more than last year) and 36 doubles (23 more than last year (!)). That walk rate that needed to improve? He DOUBLED it, to 10.9%. His K rate was 21.9%, which is kind of on the high side, but reasonable enough. A SLG in the mid 400s and an ISO of .180 are also great signs that he will be feared offensively at the major league level.

Alcantara had interesting splits this season.

vL: .246/.333/.377 (130 AB)
vR: .280/.350/.478 (364 AB)

Home: .251/.343/.409 (235 AB)
Away: .290/.361/.490 (259 AB)

Day: .267/.360/.347 (75 AB)
Night: .272/.351/.470 (419 AB)

Bases Empty: .225/.311/.419 (289 AB)
Runners On: .337/.409/.498 (205 AB)
RISP: .347/.413/.551 (118 AB)

This is awesome. He likes playing at night (which kinda sucks, but we're getting there), and he does better in more crucial situations. He has a pronounced split against lefties, but he's a switch hitter, and they generally struggle against lefties in the minors. If he focused on batting lefty, that'd also be fine. In any circumstance, his season was an unqualified success, and one that likely put him in the discussion of being a global Top 100 prospect.

Scouting

I originally though Alcantara was going to move to 3B instead of 2B, and in any other organization, he probably would. Unfortunately for Arismendy, 3B is absolutely loaded with prospects at every level. Alcantara has adequate instincts in the field but a very strong arm and it would definitely play at 3B. With some coaching, he could be a very good defensive 3B. He has the speed for 2B but maybe not the instincts; it probably isn't going to be natural for him there but he should be passable at the position. I could see a position change to CF being tried if that's the only way to get him in the lineup, and honestly, it's not that bad an idea. If Lake can be a passable CF, Alcantara could be better (Lake has the much better arm, but Alcantara is probably a shade faster) than that. 

Alcantara stands 5'10" and weighs 160 pounds, but looks heavier than that, around 170. He has 60 speed, but what's also intriguing is the developing power. Arismendy is more of a doubles hitter who might only hit a dozen HR in a year, but he could hit 35-40 doubles and steal 30 bases. That's a skillset that not many players have. 

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=30104631

That's a pretty swing. 

[youtube=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iPMf47q3KY”]

It looks like pitches up and in are going to kill him as a LHH. Of course, that's a hard pitch for anyone to hit. 

Jason Parks is also extremely complimentary of Alcantara, saying

This looks like the Cubs keystone of the future, and a guy who is a no doubt top 100 prospect in the game right now. He can flat out play.

There are no real holes in his game. I'm extremely hesitant to put the term "5-tool player" on anyone, but (if this make sense) Alcantara doesn't lack any tool. He's (and I'm spitballing) a 55 hit, 50 power, 55 arm, 60 speed, 45 fielding type of guy. If that sounds like a guy who should be in the Top 50 prospects of all of baseball, well, I'm not disagreeing with you.

Outlook

Alcantara will break with the Iowa Cubs, and I'd expect him to get every rep at 2B. Once service time is less of an issue, he could be called up and play at second every day. He's the type of prospect that is probably too good to keep at AAA for an entire year, but this FO does say they like to do that (whether or not they will is an open question). I'd be very surprised if Arismendy broke camp with the Cubs, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever. He'll be called up next September at the very least, and I'd look for him to make an impact more-or-less immediately.

I don't think Alcantara will ever be the best player on a good team, and I don't think he'll make more than an all-star game or two. However, he'll have a good shot to be a first-division middle fielder somewhere, and he also makes an extremely attractive trade chip. If I had to predict the future, Alcantara could peak at .280/.350/.430 (essentially 2013 Jason Kipnis). That's a 4-win player, and sounds about right. He is, of course, no sure thing, but I'd almost be more surprised if he wasn't a net positive on a major league team in the near future. In my opinion, Alcantara is the clear #5 prospect in this system and among the Top 50-75 prospects in all of baseball.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

 

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  3. uncle dave

    If you ever find yourself in the Bay Area, you should check out the Arizmendi Bakery. No relation to Alcantara AFAIK, but they make some pretty good stuff.

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  4. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    I wonder how the infield will look in 2 years, given the presence of Baez, Alcantera, Bryant, Olt, Rizzo, and Castro, and I guess Barney. But I bet Barney gets traded this offseason, and they start the year with Valbuena at 2B.

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  5. dmick89

    I also like Alcantara a lot and this a very nice review, Myles. I don’t think the day/night or situational stats tell us anything other than how he performed in those spots this year though. I’d expect any hitter to perform better during the day over a large enough sample. I’d also expect them to perform better in certain situational stats too, but those samples often never become large enough to be considered reliable. That’s true especially in a single season. Strong year for Alcantara.

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  8. J

    Going to address a few points from the past few threads, while factoring in the bad attendance numbers this year.

    This is a problem for a team that has made no secret about being cash-strapped. http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/20159/attendance-in-2013-lowest-in-last-15-years Attendance is going to be important in the near future, especially since the TV deal blows.

    Ticket sales are going to have to get better in a hurry. Either management spends on FAs to get competitive, or guys like Baez, Olt, and Alcantara show up in MLB in May. Donnie Murphy will not put butts in the seats. Or, they could actually spend on the bullpen and not break camp with the horseshit they have in the past few years. The putrid bullpen is a real problem when it it takes the team out of contention before June. The starting pitching this team got in the first half would carry the average roster to 75-85 wins.

    I went to the game on Monday, and was really surprised at how old the the average fan was. I think the bad attendance number is in part due to old guard fans dying or giving up, with no young fans to replace them. Sure, that’s a general economy problems that most teams face, but Wrigley should draw more 18-30 fans than any other park.

    Rizzo vs. Cashner. This season made me worry about Rizzo’s ceiling. At 1B, you can go cheap and get a 4A guy who can give you most of Rizzo’s production, or you can spend big on an MVP caliber hitter. I don’t know if the in-between is worth it. Especially when you can find another guy at 1B, or move a struggling prospect there. Before this year, I thought Rizzo could be on par with guys like Freeman or Goldschmidt, but now he’s looking more like a LaRoche or Loney. FWIW, I did agree that Cashner felt like a guy to sell on.

    I was puzzled as to why Barney has had so many ABs in August/September. The FO has to know that the hitting ceiling is not much higher than what has been shown. I guess they were hoping for a hot streak that might add trade value, but I think it’s time to write Barney off. I just don’t think you can keep a utility player that hits so little. I guess there must not be too much faith in Watkins either.

    I have to think Olt, Baez, Alcantara get every chance to win those jobs this spring, and attendance is a factor. Opening the season with veterans that every other team rejected.. not going to work.

    Sveum is a goner in my book. If the Cubs were a team with no manager, would Sveum be the guy they hired? There was too little progress. If Castro hit .290/.340/.420, I think it would not even be an issue. Rizzo got worse. If there is any free agent guy they like, they should go for it.

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  9. Suburban kid

    EnricoPallazzo wrote:

    which division was the farthest from reality? AL east?

    Actually they had the Red Sox on top, can’t remember the rest of the division. But other inaccuracies were Giants and Nationals winning divisions, and I think they had the Angels and Rangers tie for first.

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  10. Suburban kid

    @ SVB:

    My business is 7 months pregnant so there is not much that I do now about this, but while I have my baby I would go to the harmony of my thyroid, help me.

    Looks like my Jack Benny opus is gone.

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  11. sitrick

    Anyone else feel like two of the three of Alcantara, Olt, and Villanueva end up getting traded this winter? The talk of moving Baez to 2nd now makes it feel like Alcantara’s expendable, unless Myles is on to something and he ends up in CF.

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  12. sitrick

    A package of Shark, Alcantara, and team’s pick of Olt/Villanueva would net you something decent as far as arms go, wouldn’t it? Maybe not Price, but a 2 at least, no?

    EDIT: nevermind, walking this back. There aren’t really any 2’s that are close enough to free agency right now that that deal would work.

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  13. sitrick

    Veal ended the regular season with an exclamation point, striking out a season-high 12 over 6.1 shutout innings on Friday night to finish the season with a 2.16 ERA in 28 starts to go with 174 strikeouts in 154.1 innings and just 91 hits allowed. He’s established himself as the top prospect in the Cubs system, and if he can pitch at Double-A next year at anywhere near the level he did this year, he could be up by mid-season, and have far more success than the infinite number of marginal rookie arms Cubs fans have had to watch this season.- Kevin Goldstein, Tuesday Morning Ten Pack, 9/05/06

    This is up on BPro’s Wayback Machine column today. Eric Patterson and Jeff Baker also make an appearance.

    Anyone upset with the state of the Cubs right now can feel free to remember 2006, when they won 60 games and Donnie F$%^ing Veal was considered the top prospect in the system.

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  14. GBTS

    Anyone else see Captain Grit in Atlanta come flying in with a People’s Right Hook on Carlos Gomez last night for Disrespecting The Game?

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  15. sitrick

    GBTS wrote:

    Anyone else see Captain Grit in Atlanta come flying in with a People’s Right Hook on Carlos Gomez last night for Disrespecting The Game?

    The umpire certainly didn’t.

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  16. Suburban kid

    GBTS wrote:

    Anyone else see ;Captain Grit in Atlanta come flying in with a People’s Right Hook on Carlos Gomez last night for Disrespecting The Game?

    Reedz?

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  20. JonKneeV

    Regarding Alcantara –

    I went to the last Spring Training game this year and at that point, the starters only played 3 innings. Alcantara got the start at SS and looked like the best player on the field. My untrained eye came away very impressed.

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