2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Gioskar Amaya

In Commentary And Analysis, Minor Leagues by Sitrick42 Comments

Gioskar Amaya came to the Cubs as a 2009 J2 signing. His signing bonus isn't listed anywhere, so we'll assume the Cubs didn't exactly break the bank on him. Amaya entered 2013 as a hot pick to have a breakout season in the Cubs organization. Some of the notable reports:

Sickels:

11) Gioskar Amaya, 2B, Grade B-: I think he will take a huge step forward in 2013. Defense at second base is better than it was at shortstop. He's got pop, can steal bases, and has a good swing.

Callis:

I do like Amaya and think he has the upside of a solid regular. He can hit for average, might surprise you with some pop, has plus speed and plays a nice second base.

And one more from a November 2011 Kevin Goldstein column just because I found it and what the hell:

The Sleeper: Venezuelan teenager Gioskar Amaya is a plus runner with excellent contact ability who could grow into a utility role, and possibly a bit more.

Despite not much action on top organizational prospect lists — likely do to his youth and short-season ball status — Amaya seemed to be a name everyone was watching. A 5'11, 175 lb MIF bat, Amaya shuffled back and forth between short and second before finally settling in as a 2B late in the 2011 AZL season. Meanwhile, he hit .377/.417/.510 in his first season stateside, playing 52 games in Arizona.

2012 saw him moved up to Boise where he continued to rake, hitting .298/.381/.496, displaying a patient approach (33 BBs in 317 PAs for a 10.4% rate, more than double his 2011 performance a level lower), and nice power (8 HRs, 12 3Bs). A 20.5% K-rate was a bit disappointing, but Amaya proved himself more than ready for the test of full-season ball at Kane County in 2013.

Performance

Amaya got off to a frigid start and never fully recovered, hitting .229/.247/.313 in April and .238/.307/.375 in June. His pre-All Star line settled at .242/.311/.357 as he struggled to adjust to better pitching and the ice-cold spring the midwest league had to offer in 2013. In hindsight, it's fairly unsurprising that Amaya got off to such a sluggish start, playing in seriously cold weather for the first time.

A scorching July helped turn his season around, posting an eye-popping .319/.414/.489 line over 25 games and flashing the breakout potential scouts saw in him before the season. It was not to be however, as August and the long full-season schedule were unkind to Amaya, finishing with an improved-but-still-disappointing .252/.329/.369 line for the season.

Scouting

A .698 OPS in his first go at full-season ball is not going to give Amaya a ton of helium this offseason, but as a 20-year old, he can afford to have a challenging year. If you're looking for reasons to be pessimistic, his 8.1% walk rate and 21.1% K rate are certainly worth keeping an eye on as he rises through the ranks. 

Here's BA's report on Amaya from this year's Prospect Handbook:

Amaya starred alongside Marco Hernandez in the Rookie-level Arizona League during their 2011 U.S. debuts, and again at Boise last summer. Amaya can do a little bit of everything, but he stands out most for how easy he makes it all look. When the Cubs needed an emergency infielder in Triple-A in mid-May, they sent him to Iowa and he delivered a double in his lone at-bat. Amaya uses a short, quick swing that has produced a .333 batting average in two years in the United States. He's growing into some sneaky power and has plus speed, and he hinted at both with his Northwest League-leading 12 triples last summer. After alternating between second base and shortstop with Hernandez in the AZL, Amaya played exclusively at the keystone in 2012 with Boise. His range and arm strength weren't quite good enough at shortstop but are solid at second. He topped NWL second basemen with a .968 fielding percentage. Club officials love his makeup and how he's locked in to play every day. If Amaya keeps producing at the plate when he gets to full-season ball in 2013, he'll start to move quickly.

Despite the struggles, nothing about 2013 changed any of this for Amaya. He'll only be 21 next season, still has a quick bat, and is still growing into his power. His home run power is likely minimal — maybe a 10-15 guy optimistically at the major league level. But with his speed, there's the potential for a lot of doubles and triples if he can make the adjustment and start to hit full-season pitching the way he dominated the rookie leagues. And given the positive reports of his makeup, the quality of his swing, and the solid plate approach he's displayed before Kane County, I think he's perfectly capable of making those adjustments.

Outlook

Frankly, I think Amaya's 2013 performance was better than the line reflects. There were a lot of challenges to overcome, and in hindsight, a struggling year of adjustments was probably fairly predictable. It truly was a frigid spring in Midwest League towns, making the already-offense-suppressing environment play as more of a pitcher's league than usual; warm weather didn't roll in for good until mid-june, which, coincidentally, is about the time Amaya's bat started to heat up. You could create a fairly convincing narrative built around Amaya struggling to adjust to cold weather for the first few months of the season, getting hot for about a six week stretch, and then wearing down due to the grind of a full-season schedule. Of course, struggling is struggling, whatever the reason, and he still needs to prove he can make adjustments to more difficult leagues. But I wonder if the somewhat common notion of 2013 as a breakout season for Amaya wasn't a year or so premature.

Given his struggles, Gioskar should start 2014 repeating Kane County. The FSL isn't any more offense-friendly, and he needs to prove it against his current level of competition before taking on tougher challenges. With 500+ PAs logged at low-A already, however, I would think a hot April would be enough to earn a Daytona promotion and keep him from falling behind in the developmental track. With a bit of a warmer spring and a year of full-season experience already under his belt, I'm expecting a nice rebound (and potentially breakout) season out of him next year.

Long-term, the picture for Gioskar is a bit murkier. The glut of infielders already in the mix for playing time at the major league level will likely make him expendable, barring a farm-clearing trade for David Price or similar ilk. If 2014 does prove a breakout season for him, his name could find its way into some trade scenarios as third- or fourth-pieces in a bigger package.

Whatever happens, 2014 is, in my opinion, a make-or-break point in Amaya's career. Another year of struggling in the midwest league and he'll drop off the radar fairly quick, whereas a breakout season could make him next year's Alcantara. As with all Low-A players, there's a ton of volatility to his future, and it's up to Amaya and his bat to make order out of it all.

UPDATE: Myles was kind enough to remind me that the Cubs are using the fall as an opportunity to test Amaya out at Catcher, however Mark Gonzales writes that the move is not considered permanent at this point, he's just getting work in instructional leagues.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

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  4. dmick89

    I look at that a little differently. Only reason to attempt this is if you think he sucks offensively and the only way to make the bat ok is as a catcher. I would bet good money that if you found a complete list of players converted to catcher at age 20 the list is full of people who couldn’t hit their way past A+. A few exceptions but that’s what you’d find. Amaya would likely return to rookie league or Boise next year if they go through with this. He probably doesn’t return to A ball until 2015. This is bad news if you expected Amaya to have a bat at the plate.

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  7. SVB

    SK–
    I didn’t realize you wrote the Jack Benny run down on ACB. F’n hilarious.

    dmick89 wrote:

    Only reason to attempt this is if you think he sucks offensively and the only way to make the bat ok is as a catcher.

    OR, you don’t have any catchers worth a pop bottle of piss in the minors. Look at that list above. How many of those guys is a catcher? I think it rhymes with Hero, but is far less heroic.

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  9. dmick89

    @ SVB:
    There are really only two reasons the Cubs would attempt this (and I think the experiment dies quickly FWIW). 1. Amaya played that position no later than when he was 16 or 17 years old and was considered to have the ability to stick behind the plate. 2. The Cubs just don’t believe his bat is worth much of anything and he has the body type of someone who can play behind the plate.

    Amaya turns 21 in December and there is no way the Cubs would sacrifice as many as 2 years of development just because they don’t have a guy who can hit behind the plate. Lots of teams don’t, which is why there are so many crappy hitting catchers (that and the defensive demands are too much).

    Based on this guy’s past season at Low A, I think it’s much, much more likely that the reason number 2. This is a guy who lacks size and has already been seen as a future utility player. He doesn’t have much of a bat. The Cubs don’t have a lot of talent behind the plate, but they do have a lot of talent in the infield and Amaya is way down the list here and a long way from the big leagues.

    This experiment will go like the one where the Cubs tried some guy out at 3rd base because why not?

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  10. SVB

    @ dmick89:
    Yeah, you know, that’s probably basically right. With a glut of middle infielders that have decent bats, there is no reason not to try one of the guys with a fair-at-best bat somewhere else. If he caught in the past, then why not.

    OTOH, why not sacrifice the two years? Best case scenario, would this guy make the bigs in 2 years when he struggled at A ball this year? Doubt it. So if he’s going to be two years away, and his bat is already better than any C in the organization, or even equal, which I guess it is (without looking) then where is the loss? He has some promise, maybe more than the regular roster filler, so why not let him develop his D behind the plate while his hitting either improves or stays where it is.

    Personally, I’d prefer to trade him to some team that is rich in Catchers but needs M.I.

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  13. Author
    sitrick

    post updated with link to a trib blog about it. The change is not considered permanent, so I think this isn’t much to get worked up about.

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  15. J

    With all the commissioner talk in the last thread, it’s become apparent that the DH has gots to go. Rather that enact ten game-disrupting moves regarding timing, getting rid of the DH will cut about 10 minutes off of AL games. There are only like 4 pure DHs anyway. Grandfather the rule in in ’16, and that gives Ortiz/Butler/Morales a few more years under contract. Maybe expand the rosters to 26 to make it happen with the MLBPA.

    The DH was always too much of a slippery slope for me. Why not designated runners for catchers, while we’re compensating for unbalanced skills? Why not a designated fielder? That would speed up games. How about 8 designated fielders? That would enable the best fielders and best hitters. The DH already compromises the balance in skill sets. Why not go all the way?

    All or none is the way to go, and right now I think abolishing the DH is the best move for MLB

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  17. dmick89

    @ J:
    I don’t want to cut time by weakening the game. I love the DH and the first thing I’d do as commissioner is bring it to the NL. There are enough ways to shorten the game time that the DH shouldn’t even a consideration in my opinion. I love going to AL games. I know when I go I’m never going to see crappy pitcher batting 3 times for each team. To me, that’s the worst experience as a fan. 6 wasted plated appearances by a pitcher.

    Pitchers got worse fairly quickly and now there’s no reason to let them bat. If the game was invented today knowing what we know, would a pitcher bat who is so bad that he makes Ronny Cedeno look like a Hall of Famer or would they have a DH? They’d probably go to an 8-man batting order and I’d be just fine with that. It would still give the manager of using the pitcher as the batter though it would never happen.

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  18. dmick89

    Besides, runs being scored isn’t even weakening the game. That’s what we go there to watch and there are more of them in the AL, which is why it takes longer to play.

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  20. mikeakaleroy

    My thoughts on adding replays would be to stick a review umpire in the press box somewhere and have him/her be ready to give a decision shortly after the questionable play took place. None of this running umpires down the tunnel to a screen. The review umpire reviews and calls down to the crew chief with the call.

    Hell, the review umpire might as well use pitchtrax to call balls and strikes too, and toss anyone that even remotely argues at a computer aided call. This traditionalist human element bullshit needs to go.

    EDIT: Hmmm, perhaps this is already part of the changes for next year: “Calls that are challenged will be reviewed by a crew in MLB headquarters in New York City, which will make the final ruling.”

    /wikipedia’d

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  22. dmick89

    J wrote:

    The DH was always too much of a slippery slope for me. Why not designated runners for catchers, while we’re compensating for unbalanced skills? Why not a designated fielder? That would speed up games. How about 8 designated fielders? That would enable the best fielders and best hitters. The DH already compromises the balance in skill sets. Why not go all the way?

    Is there any sizable fan base anywhere that has wanted this? Has baseball ever entertained it? I’ve not heard of such a things except in opposition to the DH. The slippery slope argument doesn’t really merit discussion at this point. It’s been 40 years since the American League instituted the DH and there’s been noticeable push to add more replacements. None. I think we can safely say at this point that these are not actually possibilities given what we know today and in reality, what we know about the game.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Pitchers do not even practice batting. Not to any degree worth discussing. They’ve essentially given up. They’ve lost all hope that they can possibly hit a baseball very well and have settled for the bare minimum, which we may be at right now. You could probably take any college-aged baseball player and put him in the box and the absolute worst he’d do is about is a .150 wOBA. Pitchers have reached this point and they’ve been there for quite some time. They simply don’t care two shits about whether or not they can hit the ball.

    Pitchers spend more time in the outfield shagging fly balls than they do taking BP. They spend longer doing infield drills and would in almost all occasions be a horrible fielder at any other position than pitcher.

    Here are a few other things pitchers don’t care about: the distance between the earth and life on another planet, who killed Rosie Larson and the temperature in David Mick’s upstairs guest bedroom.

    Just for fun, I think every member of the media ought to ask all of these questions to every baseball player even though they don’t care and we know they don’t care. It would be the exact same as having them walk to the plate and suck at hitting.

    I’d be fine with the pitcher batting, but only if he can hit. Starlin Castro has been one of the worst offensive players in the league this year and he has a .279 wOBA. One of the worst qualified players is about 40 points away from league average yet he’s about 130 points of wOBA better than the average pitcher. Compared to a pitcher, Starlin Castro’s 2013 offense is like Barry fucking Bonds. So if pitchers bat, they have to have at least an average .250 wOBA. If they can’t do that, we use the DH.

    Now, what will this mean? Well, less time spent practicing the thing they’re paid to do. We’ll get acceptable batting for once, but worse pitching. No thanks. The easiest and simplest solution is to just let the pitcher continue to not care about batting because that won’t change no matter what and then replace with him with the DH.

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  26. Omar Little

    http://blog.sfgate.com/cwnevius/2013/09/26/colin-kaepernick-stop-acting-like-a-jerk/

    Shut the fuck up.

    I feel I can talk about this because we had a similar situation in our family a few years ago. Our soccer star turned out to be a far better player than we ever expected and we ended up driving all over the state to go to games. The downside was, when we lost, she’d sulk in the back of the car, refuse to speak to anyone, and bark at us when we had the nerve to ask if she’d like something to eat, for example.

    Your kid sounds awesome.

    Finally, enough was enough. We’re sorry you lost, we said, but get over yourself. It’s not about you. She did and she’s been a wonderful person every since.

    So you drove her all around the state to play soccer and she developed the idea that it was for her? Crazy. Oh, and she doesn’t sound awesome anymore.

    The media is not your enemy: The vibe you give off is that these press people are a bunch of dopes who are only deserving of contempt.

    (dying laughing)

    Coach Jim Harbaugh is not a good role model for public relations: The impression we get is that he’s encouraging you, implicitly or not, to blow this stuff off and treat it like an intrusion. Honestly, he’s the last person I’d listen to about that.

    Yeah, tell your coach to fuck off. Tell him you’re going to listen to a columnist instead.

    The real stars, LeBron James, Peyton Manning, and even to this day — Joe Montana — learned how to handle themselves in public settings.

    Ho. Lee. Shit… LeBron? That’s who Kaepernick should model his behavior after?

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  30. Myles

    They even have the political reason of “these people are risking their lives and don’t necessarily WANT to leave our glorious country, so let’s do them a solid and just legalize it.” Seems a no-brainer, which is why it probably isn’t one.

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  34. Berselius37

    Scratch that, it was the other Cubs Den guy. No one’s found a source on this, maybe it’s just what Gammons expects to happen but not a done deal.

    If it’s true, that’s an extremely dick move towards Sveum. He deserves better than this.

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  35. Myles

    Berselius37 wrote:

    Tom Loxas reporting that per Gammons, Sveum is out and Ausmus is in.
    /rearranging deckchairs

    Can’t actually find it on Gammons’ or Loxas’ twitter, Tom Loxas himself seems surprised he’s been involved in this. I don’t buy it yet.

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  40. GW

    @ Berselius:

    interesting. it seemed like they were taking steps in that direction by letting Alfredo Despaigne play in Mexico this year.

    that said, i don’t think it matters for MLB unless Washington drops their embargo (which would require the Cuban lobby to change their minds). i guess it will make it quite somewhat easier for players to defect since they won’t have to get on a raft or sneak away from the national team, but other than that…

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  42. dmick89

    Here’s the quote from Gammons

    The silence tells me there’s a really good chance Dale Sveum doesn’t come back. I don’t believe Joe Girardi is going to be the next manager of the Cubs (…) Just basing it on background and history, I would not be shocked if it was Brad Ausmus.

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