2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Jeimer Candelario

In Commentary And Analysis, Minor Leagues by myles21 Comments

In continuing with the theme of Cubs' 3rd basemen, I thought I'd take a look at the crazily young (for his history) Jeimer Candelario.

Jeimer has an interesting story. He was originally born in NYC, but was raised in the Dominican Republic. As a 16-year old there, he was signed to a hefty $500,000 dollar contract. From there, he was sent to DoSL as a 17-year old (where he dominated). He was sent to Boise in 2012 (as an 18-year old), where he was quite adequate. In fact, if you combine his 17/18 year old seasons, he had a "full-season" line of 143 G, 615 PA, 11 HR, 100 RBI, 6 SB, .307/.387/.435. That was good enough to earn Jeimer a pretty aggressive promotion to full-season Kane County for 2013.

Performance

Candelario played the whole season at third and at Kane County. On the year, he hit .256/.346/.396, remarkably similar to his .281/.345/.396 mark from last year. His line this year was actually considerably more impressive: his BABIP fell 37 points, but his on-base skills rose (11.9% BB rate), his contact rate went up (15.4% K rate from 17.7%), and his power increased too. When your power and patience both grow and your K rate falls, it's a successful season, basically no matter what. He also hit 35 doubles and homered 11 times, which is pretty impressive power.

Candelario was the 11th youngest player in the league this year (Albert Almora is 8th on this list). If you include players with at least 300 PAs, he's 5th. The other players are Orlando Arcia (an intriguing prospect in the Brewers system who also had a .647 OPS this season), Carlos Correa (the #1 pick in 2012), Dorssys Paulino (another intriguing prospect in the Indians system who also had a .646 OPS this season), and Byron Buxton (the #1 prospect in all of baseball). That's quite the company to be in, honestly.

Scouting

The book on Candelario was that he lacked the body and range to play 3B (where his bat plays just fine), and he might have to move to a corner or 1B (which would make Candelario a much, much less impressive prospect). However, those concerns have more-or-less evaporated. Candelario was thinner this year, with improved range. He's also got a quick bat, which manifests itself in his low K rate. He's also still growing, and his power could end up in the 15-20 bombs a year range. 

Baseball America was bullish on Jeimer last year, listing him as the #8 prospect in the system. He was #15 in Sickels' list (whose main negative was the defense, which improved). Baseball Prospectus doesn't have a lot on him; he didn't make the Top 10, but was one of the Prospects on the Rise. Reports are basically uniformly complimentary of his bat and approach and critical of his defense. If that critique goes away (and my feeling is that it will), Candelario could take a huge step forward next season.

With a 19-year old in full-season ball, you've also got to worry about adjusting to life in the grind, away from home. Whether it's related to his birth in NYC or not (I'm not really sure how long he stayed in America before leaving for the Dominican), he's seemed to adjust to that transition very well. 

Outlook

There's nothing for him left in KC, so I'd imagine he'll play every game next season in Daytona. If his glove can just be adequate at 3rd, there's no reason for him not to start being considered as a potential big-league regular at the position (for the Cubs or elsewhere). 3B is the biggest logjam the Cubs currently have, with Kris Bryant being a potential MVP candidate down the road, Olt being a year away from being untouchable and still having every chance to be a successful 3B, and the suddenly rejuvenated Christian Villanueva all being ahead of him on depth chart if not the prospect list. Call me crazy, though; I'm not at all sure I wouldn't rather have Candelario than even Olt at this point (which speaks both of my feelings about Candelario and Olt, I guess). In an average system, Candelario is the type of prospect that would be 5th-7th in the organization. In the Cubs, he's in the discussion for the 10th spot or so. As bad as the Cubs are in the majors (and they're horrible), the minors are going to be so much fun to watch next year.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

 

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  1. dmick89

    GBTS wrote:

    To everyone who likes the new wildcard format because of TEH DRAMA I’d just like to point out that the NL playoff picture is pretty much set 6 days before the end of the season.

    I’m not exactly sure what your opposition to the additional wild card is, but the situation you just mentioned is almost exactly the same as it was with 6 days and potentially 6 games left in the regular season.

    Maybe I’m not remembering past seasons very well or really any of the arguments in favor of the additional wild card, but I know I took a somewhat brief look at this and came to the conclusion that it made little to no difference. What it does do is guarantee two one and done games every season.

    I’m fairly sure Fangraphs looked at it more extensively and showed the same thing. The level of excitement during the regular season (on average) is not going to change one bit.

    And you know well enough that one season does nothing to confirm or deny what I gather is your opposition to the added playoff team.

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  2. sitrick

    dmick89 wrote:

    The level of excitement during the regular season (on average) is not going to change one bit.

    This works both ways, though. It’s not harming the excitement any either.

    On a related note, god Keith Law annoys the crap out of me.

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  4. dmick89

    @ sitrick:
    When you think about it, it absolutely has to increase excitement because two additional fan bases are now playoff teams. Yeah, there are now four fan bases that deal with the possibility of one and done unlike before, but I think allowing two more teams in is a good thing. Baseball also did while making it harder for the wild card team to win it all and without watering down the playoffs. Pretty well done IMO

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  5. sitrick

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ sitrick:
    When you think about it, it absolutely has to increase excitement because two additional fan bases are now playoff teams. Yeah, there are now four fan bases that deal with the possibility of one and done unlike before, but I think allowing two more teams in is a good thing. Baseball also did while making it harder for the wild card team to win it all and without watering down the playoffs. Pretty well done IMO

    Agreed. The only real convincing argument against it that I’ve heard has been Joe Sheehan talking on his podcast about how now there’s a “playoffs or bust” mentality in baseball, so that a team like the Royals who are going to have an encouraging, winning season are going to be looked at as a failure in 2013 if they don’t make the playoffs. But I think that was already the case before the second wildcard, and the difference is minimal.

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  6. dmick89

    @ sitrick:
    I’m not sure I really understand that argument. Being near KC I can guarantee that people won’t look at this season like a failure and I’m not sure that’s how people look at it anyway.

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  7. sitrick

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ sitrick:
    I’m not sure I really understand that argument. Being near KC I can guarantee that people won’t look at this season like a failure and I’m not sure that’s how people look at it anyway.

    It might not be the prevailing sentiment, but I’ve definitely heard the notion fairly frequently that, especially given the Myers/Shields trade, the Royals were all in and needed to make the playoffs this year for it to be a success.

    The 2009/2004 Cubs could be another example of this, or this year’s Nationals. A lot of that has to do with expectations, but the wildcard is part of raising those expectations.

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  13. Author
    Myles

    dmick89 wrote:

    I’m still concerned about Candelario’s power numbers as a 3rd baseman, but he’s young and has shown a good eye at the plate.

    The ML avg ISO for 3B this year is .141. Candelario’s ISO this year is .140.
    The ML avg SLG for 3B this year is .398. Candelario’s SLG this year is .396.

    I can see the concern but I think it’s slightly overstated. Hopefully his frame develops in a way that produces some power that will no doubt erode as he climbs levels.

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  14. dmick89

    Mucker, I watched Dexter all the way through. Did I like the end? No, but it was right on with what the show became. I liked last season, but seasons 5 and 7 were awful. Show just went on way too long. I was still interested enough in the characters that I watched it. I didn’t stay up on Sundays to watch, but would check it out at some point during the week. I think 5 to 6 seasons is the maximum a really good show can pull off. I haven’t seen Mad Men yet, but I heard its last season slipped. The Sopranos was on too long. It’s just too long for a tv show to be on 8 seasons like Dexter was.

    I know the showrunner wanted to end it a couple seasons ago, but Showtime wanted more. Now they apparently want a spinoff. A spinoff of what? Seriously, what on earth could work as a spinoff on that show?

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  16. dmick89

    @ Myles:
    I think the numbers are OK, but I also think you want more from a 3rd baseman. Age factors into this and he’s still a nice prospect to have, but I’m just not as high on him as a lot of people. I definitely wouldn’t dismiss him and I think he’s certainly one of the Cubs top 20. He’s probably 4th on the Cubs prospect depth chart at 3rd base behind Bryant, Olt and Villanueva. Hopefully one or all of them become big league regulars. If you think of Baez more as a 3rd baseman, he’d be 5th and that’s pretty low to the point a position change wouldn’t be the worst idea.

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  17. Mucker

    @ dmick89:
    I started watching the show again after a couple seasons off. After the Lumen season, I just had enough. But I was tired of the same ole shit in every season. Dexter kills people, he comes really close to getting caught, then he doesn’t. I thought things happened a couple of seasons too late. The end of last season was really good but I just can’t even comprehend what happened this final episode. It felt like a cop out. I don’t know, maybe it’s just me but I didn’t enjoy this season at all and that’s a shame because the show was really good for a couple of seasons. It was sort of like Rescue Me too. So good early in the seasons and then just got so old and you just wanted it to end.

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  19. dmick89

    @ Mucker:
    Yeah, it was a bad season and I think Sepinwall made the point about it being up against Breaking Bad’s final season. That’s not even fair for Dexter. One show is ending on its terms and the other doesn’t know what it once was. It’s kind of sad.

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  21. Drock

    I went to quite a few cougars games this past year, with no knowledge of who was where on prospect list. And maybe it’s because this guy is young, (he tried to blow a ball foul in Beloit) he wasn’t in the top 10 players on the team. And none of the players likened his work ethic. Why would you be high on him?

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